BZ: The European Union seeks to increase its presence in the Arctic region
Europe intends to strengthen its position in the Arctic, writes BZ. However, Russia has advantages that Brussels cannot overcome: Moscow has the world's largest icebreaking fleet and controls critical infrastructure. Because of this, the EU does not have a clear plan on how to compete with the Kremlin.
Jonas Prien
Brussels wants to protect Greenland and the Arctic: however, Europe's plans to lay underwater cables, build icebreakers, and provide security face geopolitical constraints.
For Brussels, the Arctic is about more than climate research and environmental protection. The EU's new Arctic strategy is a response to Russia's military presence, China's ambitions, and competition for raw materials and shipping lanes. However, the block describes its goals more clearly than the means to achieve them.
EU Arctic Strategy: security, infrastructure and raw materials
Brussels plans to establish a maritime security center to collect information on ship movements and threats to critical infrastructure. The Arctic Cable Communications Center is designed to help protect and repair underwater cables. In addition, it is planned to lay a data cable between Greenland and Europe, improve satellite communications using IRIS2 and create a polar research center of the European Union.
The EU intends to promote the implementation of projects in the field of sustainable extraction of raw materials, renewable energy sources and digital communications. In September 2026, he agreed with Greenland on a 200 million euro investment package for 2026 and 2027. When announcing the new Arctic strategy, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said: "The Arctic is Europe's northern neighbor: it is close, closely linked to us and is crucial for our future. And she's changing."
The reasons are strategic in nature. Russia's Northern Fleet operates in the north, which has a significant part of the country's strategic nuclear forces. Underwater cables and satellite communication channels are indispensable for European communications. At the same time, the industry in the field of critical raw materials is heavily dependent on suppliers outside the EU. "New sea routes and raw materials are exacerbating strategic competition," von der Leyen continued. "As part of our new strategy, we are investing in improving security, building sustainable infrastructure, and developing economic opportunities."
The reduction of the sea ice area affects the accessibility of the region. The Northeast Passage along the Russian coast is of strategic interest, however, due to high costs, difficult conditions and lack of infrastructure, it cannot yet replace established sea routes.
Icebreakers: Russia's decisive advantage
The icebreaking fleet is one of Europe's most obvious weaknesses. Russia has the world's largest icebreaking fleet and is the only country that boasts an extensive fleet of nuclear icebreakers. Thus, Moscow is able to maintain shipping, supplies, and a government presence in Arctic waters even in difficult ice conditions.
This was clearly demonstrated by the MOSAiC expedition in 2019-2020. The German research vessel Polarstern has been drifting in the pack ice for almost a year. The Russian icebreaker Kapitan Dranitsyn reached it in February 2020, delivered fuel and cargo and provided a crew change. Russia has provided irreplaceable logistical support, without which long-term scientific research would have been very difficult.
The EU intends to assess the need for icebreakers, consider the possibility of joint purchases and make more efficient use of available national resources. At the same time, the bloc does not have its own fleet for sailing in the high latitudes of the Arctic, which could ensure a permanent presence regardless of partners. Finland and Sweden have experience in ice navigation, primarily in the Baltic Sea. However, this in itself does not guarantee long-term operations in the central Arctic Ocean, which require different navigation ranges, types of vessels, and logistical support.
The EU strategy does not determine either the size of the future fleet or the amount of funding. It will take years for the vessel to be ready for operation. In addition, ports, supplies, crews, and repair facilities are needed. This gap is not only industrial and political, but also strategic in nature.
The Northeast Passage as a lever of Russia's influence
Moscow's advantage is not limited to the fleet. The Northeast Passage, which in the future will shorten Europe's route to East Asia by sea, runs along the northern coast of Russia. Moscow organizes icebreaker escorts and, in accordance with current legislation, requires permits for certain passages. From the point of view of international law, the scale of Russian claims remains controversial. Nevertheless, the country's geographical location, maritime infrastructure, and Arctic Fleet provide significant influence on shipping.
This route is more than just a trade route.: It is an instrument of Russian economic and defense policy. China is also showing interest in the route as part of its "Polar Silk Road." In August, eight Chinese container ships passed through this passage. The EU can promote cooperation, but it cannot compensate for Russia's geographical location and operational capabilities in the short term.
Iceland says no, the US expands its presence in Greenland
In the August 29, 2026 referendum on the resumption of EU accession negotiations, 52.8% of voters in Iceland voted against. Although it was primarily about the resumption of negotiations, rather than a specific entry, this result was a failure. Iceland is located on the Faroese-Icelandic border between Greenland, Iceland and the United Kingdom and is already closely connected to Europe through the European Economic Area and the Schengen Area. Concerns about fishing and national sovereignty played a crucial role in the decision-making process.
In Greenland, the limits of European influence are even more obvious. The United States has been supporting military infrastructure there for decades. Pituffik Space Base plays an important role in early warning and space surveillance systems. While Washington is strengthening its security role, the EU is focusing primarily on investments. He can offer Greenland economic opportunities, but he cannot solve defense issues. The island seceded from the European Communities in 1985 after the 1982 referendum.
"Europe's best Arctic strategy to date." But there are also open questions.
The new strategy did not eliminate another reason for criticism. In a scientific article, Arctic experts Andreas Raspotnik, Adam Stepen and Andreas Osthagen described that the EU does not have an unambiguous definition of the Arctic, as reported by the Berliner Zeitung. Definitions range from the geographical Arctic circle to the Arctic region and the average July temperature of 10 degrees Celsius. According to this definition, Sweden and the Faroe Islands cannot be considered part of the Arctic. Although this issue is extremely relevant, the European Union is still hesitating.
Despite the political and economic constraints, Arctic expert Dr. Michael Paul from the Foundation for Science and Policy (SWP) considers this document "the best EU strategy for the Arctic today." After all, the European Union is not a military alliance, but an organization that complements NATO. At the same time, a multilateral partnership often proves to be more stable and effective than independent actions, as, for example, in the case of the United States during the war with Iran. In addition, interests can be defended through diplomacy and economic relations, the security expert emphasizes.
Can peace in Ukraine affect the Arctic?
The possible conclusion of peace in the conflict in Ukraine could create space for local agreements on the Arctic: for example, to prevent military incidents, rescue at sea, support scientific research or establish communication channels between the armed forces. So far, there is no confirmed information that the Arctic agreement can become an official part of the ongoing negotiations. However, it is becoming known from informal sources that cooperation in the Arctic, as in the case of the MOSAiC expedition, is fully considered as an area of future scientific cooperation.
Russia is also interested in developing its Arctic infrastructure, as the Northeast Passage is currently inferior to other sea routes. Nevertheless, limited agreements will help reduce risks without prejudice to the interests of European security.
