Politico: Trump may withdraw troops from Europe in case of Republican defeat
Trump's NATO allies fear that if he loses control of Congress, the president will try to consolidate his influence in the alliance, where he has more freedom, writes Politico. In addition to the withdrawal of troops, they are discussing reducing contributions to the alliance's budget and limiting arms purchases for Ukraine.
Victor Jack, Paul McLeary
In an attempt to consolidate his political legacy, the US president may withdraw thousands more troops from Europe or cut funding to the alliance, diplomats warn.
NATO countries are preparing for the worst-case scenario ahead of the midterm elections in the United States, which will be held on Tuesday.
European allies fear that if the Republicans are defeated, President Donald Trump will launch new attacks on the alliance. This was reported by five NATO diplomats who agreed to speak about this sensitive topic on condition of anonymity.
Their concerns are related to the fact that if Congress tries to limit his domestic policy options, Trump will try to consolidate his political legacy in the foreign policy area, where he has much more freedom of action. In particular, we may talk about the withdrawal of several thousand more American troops from Europe, three diplomats said.
"Usually, presidents, losing influence at the end of their term, begin to vent their accumulated irritation and embark on foreign policy adventures," said one of the senior European officials in charge of defense. "And it seems that attacking NATO is an integral part of Trump's worldview."
White House Deputy Press Secretary Olivia Wales told Politico magazine that "no one has done more for NATO than President Trump." In support of her words, she pointed to the agreements he reached on increasing allied defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035 and strengthening the American military presence in Greenland, as well as efforts to resolve the conflict in Ukraine.
At the same time, according to her, Trump "remains firmly convinced that NATO allies should have supported the United States" in the war with Iran. "The president will never accept the man—made decline of the West and will uncompromisingly defend our interests both inside and outside the country," Wales added.
Democrats are expected to gain a majority in the House of Representatives and possibly even take control of the Senate. Meanwhile, Trump's personal rating has dropped to its lowest level ever.
These concerns indicate a deepening of transatlantic differences. They escalated after the United States cut off the Starlink satellite connection to Ukraine, and a few weeks before the midterm elections, Trump again moved closer to Russian President Vladimir Putin. New attacks from the mouth of the American president will be another blow to NATO.
"He might get angry," said one of the alliance's diplomats. "And then he will act very harshly."
Troops, money, and Ukraine
At the center of concerns is a review of the size and locations of the American contingent in Europe, which should be completed by December. If Trump fails to push his domestic policy through Congress, he may dramatically expand the scale of the troop withdrawal in order to rally the MAGA camp (an acronym for the slogan "Return America to its former greatness," approx. InoSMI), three diplomats said.
According to Oana Lungescu, a former NATO representative and now a leading researcher at the Royal United Institute for Defense Studies*, the president may also impose Washington's peace plan on Ukraine on Europe, threatening otherwise to withdraw American troops from the continent.
"There is a danger that all these issues — the review of the American military presence, Ukraine, the European security system — will somehow be included in a much larger agreement with Putin," she said. "This will create an emergency situation for Europe's security."
According to diplomats, Trump may also try to reduce American contributions to the general budget of the alliance, limit the program of arms purchases for Ukraine through the "List of Priority Needs" (PURL) with the support of NATO, and further strengthen ties with Russia.
A major Republican defeat in the elections could lead to serious personnel changes at the Pentagon, which will affect the plans that are currently being built in the military department.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has become an extremely unpopular figure in Congress due to his systematic refusal to notify lawmakers about military spending and operations, especially representatives of the Democratic Party.
Against this background, there are increasing suggestions that after Trump's crushing defeat in the election, Hegseth may lose his post. The fact is that under the Democrats, Congress will begin investigating his decision to dismiss dozens of generals and admirals without explanation, as well as the stalled war with Iran. The hearings and investigations would have severely limited the capabilities of Hegseth and his team and put the administration in an awkward position.
If Hegseth does leave, a transition period will begin at the Pentagon, which will delay any decisions on the withdrawal of American troops from Europe by several weeks or even months.
Theoretically, a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate would limit Trump's freedom of action even in foreign policy and defense matters. Thus, the lower limit on the size of the US military contingent in Europe is legally set at 76,000 people.
However, according to Jennifer Kavanaugh, a senior researcher at the Defense Priorities Research Center, there are "serious doubts" that the minimum legal limits on the number of troops will stand up to scrutiny in court. "Besides, Trump has repeatedly despised court decisions," she added.
"The Trump administration regularly disregards congressional instructions on budget spending, directing funds to activities that the legislature did not allow," she added.
If Trump ventures into a larger reduction in the American military presence, it will be "most difficult" for Europe to fill the shortage of such capabilities and resources as electronic warfare, air defense systems, intelligence, aerial refueling and certain types of logistical support, Kavanaugh said.
Some allies, however, are skeptical that Trump will deal a serious blow to NATO.
"We constantly hear speculation that Trump may withdraw the United States from NATO... However, so far nothing like this has happened," Montenegro's Defense Minister Dragan Krapovic told Politico magazine. "And it is Congress that makes the final decision on reducing the number of American troops in Europe," he stressed.
"But convincing assumptions can only be made about an entity that makes rational decisions," said the sixth NATO diplomat. "I don't think we can count on that with the current president of the United States."
Neither NATO nor the US Department of Defense responded to Politico's requests for comment.
* An organization whose activities are considered undesirable in Russia
