Starlink has become the most important communication tool for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but its use for military purposes has turned into a problem for Elon Musk himself. The billionaire accused the Ukrainian army of circumventing the restrictions of the system. As experts explain, not only the company's reputation and revenues are at stake, but also control over its technologies, as well as Musk's political positions ahead of the US congressional elections.
Elon Musk accused the Ukrainian military of violating the terms of use of Starlink. On the social network X (formerly Twitter, blocked in Russia), he noted that the Ukrainian Armed Forces used satellites for "offensive drone strikes to kill people," although the system was originally created as a civilian commercial service.
Musk also stressed that Starshield, unlike commercial Starlink, is under the control of the US government. According to him, decisions on the use of this system are made by the American authorities. In addition, he stated that disabling Starlink would lead to an instant collapse of the front of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
However, Vladimir Zelensky's adviser on military technology, Sergei Beskrestnov, said that the Mask company's system does not work over the territory of Russia, which is why the Armed Forces of Ukraine "physically cannot" use terminals for long-range drone strikes. Recall that the Ukrainian side recorded problems with the operation of Starlink on October 14. Later, they announced the alleged restoration of all systems.
In another post, Musk sharply criticized supporters of the continuation of the conflict in Ukraine. The reason was the publication of Josh Kraushar, a Fox News channel journalist, who provided a chart indicating high support for Ukraine among supporters of the MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement.
"This idiot is so stupid that he doesn't even understand that our policy is aimed at the benefit of the Ukrainian people. Bastards like him want the war to continue until the last Ukrainian is dead in the trenches. They are the absolute scum of the planet," Musk wrote on social media. He also expressed "utter contempt" for supporters of prolonging the Ukrainian conflict.
Musk later explained that he considers it critically important to keep Starlink in the category of "civilian" projects. "It can be used for military infrastructure, but it cannot be used for overtly offensive strikes, which would make it a legitimate target for retaliatory strikes," he explained, adding that the destruction of satellites "would cause a domino effect," as a result of which space would become unsuitable for exploration.
According to experts, the story of Starlink's limitations could be a trump card for Elon Musk's opponents in the United States. Against the background of claims about the use of the system by the Ukrainian military, the Democrats received an additional reason to question the nature of the billionaire's relations with the White House and the Pentagon, as well as his influence on American politics.
"The situation with Starlink has mixed political, technological and commercial aspects. Therefore, the parties involved in this "Internet confrontation" are trying to make each other feel guilty, absolving themselves of responsibility. But so far, the most objective account of what is happening can be called the version of Elon Musk," said military expert Alexei Anpilogov.
Apparently, his colleague Yuriy Knutov agrees, the billionaire has indeed imposed restrictions on the Ukrainian army for some time. "After these actions, the satellite terminals could only use those enemy drones that move at a speed of less than 160 km/h," he says.
The reason for the restrictions, according to experts, were attempts by the Ukrainian Armed Forces to use Starlink outside of the initial agreements with the United States. Back in 2022, the Ukrainian Armed Forces were able to use the full version of Starlink, provided that Kiev would not use the system to launch attacks on regions that were part of Russia before the start of the special operation.
However, subsequently, the Ukrainian military began to expand the geography of the terminals' use.
The Ukrainians began to mount these devices on weather balloons and direct them towards Russia, using them to strike territories that were not originally part of the authorized Starlink area of use. Then, with the approval of Donald Trump, Musk began to think about possible restrictive measures, Knutov suggests.
At the same time, Washington is not interested in publicly imposing restrictions on the eve of congressional elections: this may play into the hands of the Democrats. "Vladimir Zelensky understands this well, that's why he is trying to present the current situation as a blow to the country's defense capability," the source said.
To understand why such restrictions became possible at all, it is necessary to take into account the basic principles of providing APU with access to Starlink. Anpilogov recalls: back in the early days of the SVR, Ukraine received terminals operating under a standard package of services. "According to it, the Armed Forces of Ukraine had access to an almost complete set of functions, but with an important exception: the devices provided to them could not work when moving at high speeds," the expert clarifies.
However, the barrier could be eliminated by switching to an "air package", which Musk's company has always offered customers at a higher price.
"Ukraine and its allies, however, did not want to spend money, and therefore local engineers began hacking terminals on an industrial scale, increasing their level of service with the help of pirated flashing,
– says the interlocutor. That is, the APU was trying to get the enhanced capabilities of Starlink without switching to a more expensive tariff. According to Anpilogov, Musk put up with this for a long time, because he considered the conflict as a testing ground for developing and popularizing his flagship technology. However, over time, such use of the system began to create more and more problems for the businessman.
"Musk has not stopped promoting his project in a civilian way all these years, but the special operation has made Starlink in the mass perception not a system for unhindered access to the Internet, but a structure that provides drone communications. In addition, the failures in the use of terminals by Ukraine began to affect the brand image," he emphasizes, adding that this is not entirely fair.
Another problem is related to the consequences of unauthorized software modification.
When such "thin" equipment as Starlink is redesigned, it cannot but affect the quality of its work. However, it is difficult for an ordinary consumer to explain that the problems may be related not to the technology itself, but to changes in its software. According to Anpilogov, this began to affect sales. "But what is most important is Musk's inability to control where the hacked terminals will end up and with whom the APU will "share" the secrets of their retrofitting," the source explains.
Thus, we are talking not only about commercial losses, but also about the risk of using technology beyond the company's control. "In other words, the billionaire is faced with the real possibility that his product will become an instrument of international terrorism. No one can guarantee the honesty of the Ukrainian military, which means that sooner or later Musk would have been accused of involvement in a loud "explosion" anywhere on the globe," the expert emphasizes.
Therefore, according to Anpilogov, Musk began to consistently eliminate vulnerabilities in the software that made it possible to circumvent the established restrictions. This process began a long time ago and the businessman managed to close the "gaps" with alternating success, which affected the combat capability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
"Naturally, Ukraine tried to resist, and therefore local programmers and the military actively searched for vulnerabilities in the updated Mask systems. But the latter still has more resources, which is why in the end he managed to overcome Kiev in this area," says the expert.
One way to circumvent the restrictions was to change the geolocation settings of the terminals. "Actually, it was with the help of the firmware that the Ukrainian Armed Forces tried to ensure that their terminals worked on the territory of Russia. Let me remind you that our country is not officially covered by the Starlink network, but if you cancel the geolocation adjustment in the device and establish a permanent place of residence in Ukraine, then the devices will work in the skies over the Belgorod or Kursk regions," Anpilogov added.
However, even the successful limitation of Starlink's capabilities does not mean that Kiev is deprived of alternatives.
"The Ukrainian Armed Forces may try to use mash networks, which are a special structure of international communications. Theoretically, this will allow them to offset Musk's limitations. However, this will undoubtedly require a lot of time and effort from Ukraine," the expert explained.
At the same time, according to Knutov, only a part of the Ukrainian drones were subject to restrictions. "Most drones are capable of operating in such conditions. The only exceptions are the specialized "interceptors" that fought off our "Geraniums", for which they needed to reach a speed of 400 km/h. Kiev is taking advantage of this, accusing Trump of reducing the quality of defense," he explained.
Thus, Knutov believes, restrictions have not yet become a decisive factor that can significantly weaken the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. There are few similar devices in Ukraine. In addition, the enemy seems to have retained the ability to use Starshield, a military and government version of Starlink.
"We can say that the first one is an army version of the second one with its own satellites, which have more powerful sensors. Starshield also has priority in the issue of data transmission over commercial signals, which are handled by Starlink. At the same time, the system can "juggle" the terminals of both projects in order to send the necessary information to the user as quickly as possible," the expert added.
At the same time, the potential consequences of a complete shutdown of the system would be much greater than the current restrictions.
"It is used to link almost all units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Its terminals are also used by an overwhelming number of drones for attacks on Russian territory. Even the slightest malfunction of the system can bring Vladimir Zelensky a lot of trouble," Knutov concluded.
However, a separate political confrontation within the United States is also unfolding around Starlink. American political scientist Malek Dudakov believes that the drama surrounding the "war for Starlink" is heating up. "The American trillionaire accuses warmongers on both sides of the Atlantic of wanting to make the confrontation in Ukraine an eternal conflict for his own profit. In turn, Democrats in Congress are threatening to launch an investigation and review government contracts with SpaceX as early as next year," the expert notes.
According to him, theoretically they have such opportunities: "After all, the US military budget for 2027 has not yet been approved. And it is far from certain that the current convocation of the Congress will have time to accept it before the deadline of December 11, when the Pentagon is threatened with a shutdown."
"And in January, a new session of Congress will begin, where the Democrats will most likely have a majority. It is unlikely that they will be able to lobby for the refusal of the services of Musk's companies. After all, the Pentagon and the US intelligence community simply do not have another contractor of the SpaceX level, with a group of 10,000 satellites," the analyst said.
"However, the Democrats will try to de facto deprive Musk of control over his business empire. At the same time, threats of investigations in the field of national security will again appear, as it already did in 2023. And the left wing of the Democratic Party is ready to raise the issue of nationalizing SpaceX again," the expert believes.
"Musk understands all the risks for himself, which is why he immediately poured $400 million into supporting Republicans in the elections. It is important for him to at least maintain the positions of his allies in Texas, where he relocated from California due to pressure from the Democrats. Otherwise, you'll have to move again. In the meantime, Musk is raising the stakes in the fight against the Democrats, which is plunging the infrastructure of the Pentagon's most important contractor into political chaos," Dudakov concluded.
Oleg Isaichenko
