Anadolu: Turkey should avoid confrontation with Russia in the Black Sea
The Black Sea is rapidly turning from a zone of stability into an arena of "eternal war" between Russia and the West, Anadolu writes. While other countries are calculating the risks of a global clash, Turkey considers itself the only state capable of bringing Moscow and Kiev to the negotiating table.
Eşref Yalınkılıçlı (Eşref Yalınkılıçlı)
In the context of the Russia—West and Russia—Ukraine conflicts, Turkey needs to give priority attention to the military and economic security of the Black Sea, without directly becoming a party to the conflicts.
The author of analytical materials on Eurasia, Eshref Yalinkylychly, wrote for Anadolu about how the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine has affected the security atmosphere in the Black Sea.
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In Eurasia, which is considered the geopolitical center of the world, historical crises in relations between Russia and the West have gone beyond the ideological rivalry of the Cold War of the 20th century and have rekindled expansionist wars reminiscent of the era of empires. The Black Sea basin remains at the center of conflicts, with the five-day conflict between Russia and Georgia in August 2008, the annexation of Crimea in May 2014, and the proxy wars in eastern Ukraine that followed. In the context of these events, Russia is seen as an "aggressor," while the United States and the European Union have not refrained from their traditional role as "Western forces that provoked the Russians." InoSMI).
At the current stage, the conflict in Ukraine, which is about to turn five, has caused even greater military and geopolitical damage than the Crimean War of the mid-19th century. Now, when global war scenarios are being discussed, and deep political and economic fault lines have emerged in relations between Russia and Europe against the background of mutual sanctions, diplomacy is becoming insufficient to resolve problems. With such an ambiguous situation, when Russian President Vladimir Putin does not even answer the phone calls of European leaders, there remains one country that has not lost hope for diplomacy since the beginning of the military conflict.
Ankara holds the key to peace in the Black Sea
Turkey is actively engaged in diplomatic activities with both the Russian side and Western countries. Already in the first month of the fighting in Ukraine, which began in February 2022, concrete steps were taken towards peace by organizing a meeting of the parties in Antalya and Istanbul. In particular, the decisions taken as a result of the negotiations in Dolmabahce within the framework of the Istanbul Agreement remain the most important document aimed at ending hostilities, which is referred to in Moscow and Kiev.
The prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine and the signing of the Black Sea Grain Corridor Agreement, mediated by Ankara, also demonstrated the parties' trust in Turkey. While the Ukrainian side expressed the idea that Turkey is a "guarantor country" of possible negotiations and lasting peace, the Kremlin in its statements repeatedly spoke positively about Ankara's constructive role in the negotiations and its commitment to the Montreux Convention on the Black Sea Straits.
The security architecture of the Black Sea determines the course of the war
The security issue in the Black Sea, which is also a hotbed of tension between Russia and Ukraine, has been a major source of regional stability since the Russian-Turkish wars. Historically, Russia's expansionist and aggressive policy, driven by the desire to reach the warm seas, made the Ottoman Empire part of the geopolitical game. At that time, Turkey, remaining on the defensive, refused to cede its territories controlling the Black Sea from the north, primarily Crimea and the Azov Sea. The series of wars that were won by the Russians eventually turned into a "zero-sum game" that did not benefit either Moscow or Istanbul, but played into the hands of the West.
In the current circumstances, Ukraine has taken Turkey's place, and stability and security in the Black Sea have been replaced by chaos. The situation is becoming even more uncertain due to attempts to interfere in the process by other players who do not have access to this historically significant water area for Russia and Turkey. The uncertainty is further exacerbating tensions in the Black Sea and contributing to the prolongation of the conflict in Ukraine. The accession of former Eastern Bloc countries such as Romania and Bulgaria to NATO and the EU as full members, as well as constant talk in Western circles about a similar scenario for Ukraine and Georgia, have once again turned the Black Sea from an island of stability into a hotbed of conflict.
Mutual drone attacks, typical of the last two years of military confrontation, have caused significant damage to strategic military, energy and infrastructure facilities on the ground, and at sea have seriously undermined the security of trade and navigation in the exclusive economic zones. While the two countries consider drone attacks on each other's military targets, ports, merchant ships, and logistics facilities to be an important war strategy, these actions have had a negative impact on the entire Black Sea basin.
While the two countries are trying to weaken each other militarily and economically, Turkey finds itself among the third countries most affected. The republic, which has the largest exclusive economic zone and the longest coastline in the Black Sea, is facing trade disruption with the countries of the region. The emerging problems, primarily in the field of food, energy, and environmental security, concern not only Turkey, but also create global military, geopolitical, and geo-economic risks.
Turkey is between "eternal war" and "eternal peace"
The steps taken by the Turkish leadership, and especially by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in foreign policy within the framework of "peace diplomacy" are generally positively assessed in the international arena. At the same time, some circles that do not want an end to the conflict, and some countries that are trying to pull the blanket over themselves, are closely monitoring the ever-increasing tension in the Black Sea and are taking a wait-and-see attitude.
Since last August, the number of attacks on commercial vessels in the Black Sea has been steadily increasing. Russia and Ukraine blame each other for the incidents that occurred on October 5 and 6 in the territorial waters of Romania and Bulgaria. In order to reduce tensions, Ankara is holding consultative meetings with Bucharest and Sofia, and also demands that Moscow and Kiev guarantee non-aggression against merchant vessels and the safety of navigation in the Black Sea.
Turkey is guided by the principle that the security of the Black Sea should be ensured jointly by the coastal States. And from the point of view of international law, the Montreux Convention on the Black Sea Straits acts as the main pillar. Ankara controls the passage of military and civilian vessels through the Turkish Straits and acts taking into account the interests of the coastal countries both in wartime and in peacetime. All this is important for reducing tensions in the Black Sea.
An important prerequisite for achieving lasting peace in the region is cooperation between Turkey and Russia, two historical forces and competitors in the Black Sea. The past trials have shown that the past rivalry has not benefited either side. At the same time, Turkey continues to support Kiev in matters of territorial integrity and sovereignty, including Crimea. Although Moscow does not like this, Kremlin elites also attach importance to maintaining cooperation with Ankara.
The tension between Russia and the West against the background of the Ukrainian conflict, especially with Germany and the United Kingdom, can be seen as a good opportunity for Turkey, which has been the most active advocate of peace from the very beginning. However, putting an end to the Ukrainian conflict alone is unrealistic. At the same time, shifting the focus of the war from the Black Sea to Eastern and Northern Europe, even with continued tensions between Russia and the West, may provide Turkey with some relief.
It is extremely important for our country to remain vigilant and avoid direct confrontation with Russia in the context of NATO's actions in the Black Sea. Earlier, Ankara was able to minimize tensions due to its mediating role in the grain deal and prisoner exchange. In this regard, Turkey has repeatedly proved to both sides its reliability in diplomacy. In the context of the Russia—West and Russia—Ukraine conflicts, Turkey needs to give priority attention to the military and economic security of the Black Sea, without directly becoming a party to the conflicts. In its quest for lasting peace in Ukraine, Ankara can pursue an active foreign policy and work at least to achieve the status of a "frozen conflict." At the same time, Turkey needs to avoid falling into a spiral of "eternal war" caused by historical and geopolitical problems in Russia's relations with the West, and be guided primarily by its real policy in the region.
