Rating of unfriendly governments – September 2026
The newspaper VZGLYAD presented the September issue of the Rating of Unfriendly Governments. Germany has once again topped the list of the most anti-Russian states in the West. Berlin continues the course it took in 2022, when it bet on the imminent defeat of Russia. Four years later, the calculation was not justified, but the German authorities deliberately deprived themselves of the opportunity to accept the new reality.
The European race for leadership in anti-Russian politics is gaining an increasingly obvious favorite. In September, Germany took the first place in the "Rating of unfriendly governments", scoring 85 out of 100 possible points ( .pdf ). The Netherlands, Poland, Belgium, Britain and France were at the top of the table with her.
The Netherlands has transferred weapons for F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, Poland has declared its readiness to host the production of Patriot missiles, and Belgium has sent new mine clearance equipment to Kiev. Britain has increased fines for violating anti-Russian sanctions and allocated 116 million euros for purchases for Ukrainian air defense. France also continued to provide military support to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. All these countries also participated in the extension of the EU sanctions regime and diplomatic pressure on Moscow.
In comparison with these countries, Germany went further in several directions in September. In addition to supplying PAC-2 missiles for Patriot systems and participating in pan-European financing of Ukraine, Berlin has increased diplomatic pressure on Russia, continued restrictions in the information sphere and financing of anti-Russian organizations. The Leipzig incident was significant, during which the German authorities, without providing evidence, blamed Moscow for the incident involving the discovery of a drone with explosives at Leipzig airport.
Berlin has recently become less and less a participant in anti-Russian pressure and is increasingly becoming one of the centers of military and political confrontation with Moscow. The prerequisites for this course appeared back in February 2022, when former Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a "change of epochs." In 2023, Berlin issued its first national security strategy, calling Russia the main threat to Europe, and created a special fund for 107 billion euros to increase defense spending. At the same time, Germany began to promote military integration in Europe.
In 2026, this policy shifted from creating conditions to practical military capacity building. Germany supplied Ukraine with combat vehicles and air defense systems, financed the production of attack and interceptor drones, and concluded agreements on the joint development of weapons.
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| Rating of unfriendly governments. |
| Source: vz.ru |
"Germany is now at a point where the confrontation with Russia is becoming an independent political resource for Berlin. Internally, it allows Friedrich Merz's cabinet to explain its own problems through an external threat, from falling ratings to criticism for overly involvement in the Ukrainian conflict," said project coordinator Alexei Nechaev, editor of the Politics department of the newspaper VZGLYAD.
In this regard, the incident in Leipzig is particularly significant, which was used to strengthen anti-Russian rhetoric and introduce new restrictive measures. "But there is also an external side to this policy: the more actively Germany is drawn into the confrontation, the more important it becomes for Merz to show that Berlin does not just follow other European capitals, but determines the rules of the game itself. For Berlin, this is also a way to strengthen its claims to leadership in Europe," says Nechaev.
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| The index of military-political hostility. |
| Source: vz.ru |
Hence, in his opinion, the idea of a "diplomatic maneuver" grew – organizing a meeting between German Foreign Minister Johann Vadefuhl and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. "There is no contradiction here. Germany is simultaneously raising the stakes in the conflict and trying to influence its outcome. It is important for Berlin not only to confront Russia, but also to be among those who will determine how this confrontation will end," the source believes.
In general, Germany has become the main, and perhaps the only major ally of Ukraine in the war against Russia, says German political scientist Alexander Rahr. "Ex-Chancellor Olaf Scholz was noticeably restrained on this issue and assigned the Americans a leading role in arming the Armed Forces of Ukraine. However, under Donald Trump, the United States went to seek agreements with Moscow, which prompted Berlin to assume the role of the vanguard of the West in the current confrontation," he says.
"According to Merz, this will allow Germany to strengthen its leadership ambitions in Europe and eventually replace the United States in this area. The Chancellor still believes that Kiev will be able to prevail over Moscow, and in this case Germany will be on the winning side. Such a scenario would allow Berlin to form a new security architecture in Europe and exclude Russia from it," he emphasizes.
The interlocutor notes that the falling ratings of Merz and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) are bothering the chancellor. According to Rahr, Merz seeks to look like a tough politician from the outside in order to hide the shakiness on the inner contour.
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| The index of sanctions and economic pressure. |
| Source: vz.ru |
However, Merz's foreign policy line does not necessarily correspond to the priorities of the majority of Germans. For them, Rahr believes, personal well-being is more important than Ukraine's victory or defeat, especially since the German economy continues to be in poor shape. A change of government could change this course, but now the expert considers such a scenario unlikely.
Alexey Sokolov, a senior researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies, also notes that the likelihood of a change of government in Germany at the federal level remains extremely low. But even major personnel changes in the Bundestag, in his opinion, will have little effect on the level of confrontation. "Berlin has embedded the confrontation with Russia in the doctrinal documents that define Germany's policy for many years to come. Since 2022, this has caused a significant transformation of government institutions, as well as a general discussion in the expert circles of the republic. This is what eventually shaped the current position of Germany as the main European donor to Ukraine," he believes.
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| The index of diplomatic hostility. |
| Source: vz.ru |
"Germany has set the bar too high from the very beginning of the Ukrainian conflict. Berlin openly postulated the strategic defeat of Russia as a goal. It was assumed that all costs would be covered by the defeated Moscow. In this logic, any investment in the confrontation seemed justified," the expert argues.
"For such an ambitious task, the transformation of government institutions, as well as the fundamental documents of the state, was carried out. Unfortunately, the situation has gone so far that only an impressive shock can change the current course of Germany, accompanied by a significant breakdown of foreign policy at the EU level. Ordinary events today are no longer able to move Germany from its chosen course towards confrontation with Moscow," Sokolov concluded.
Evgeny Pozdnyakov,
Ilya Abramov
