Shargh: Israel has failed to reshape the security architecture in the Middle East
The Middle East has become the scene of a permanent crisis, Shargh writes. Netanyahu's attempt to reshape the region's security architecture has resulted in a devastated Gaza, tens of thousands of casualties, and a multi-front war. The main question that could cost him his career is getting louder: could he have prevented this tragedy?
The barrier Mojdehi (مهسا مژدهی)
Three years after the events of October 7, the severe consequences of one of the most critical periods in the modern history of the Middle East continue to weigh heavily on the daily lives of millions of people in the region. Time here is measured by the crisis and the fragile hope of peace.
36 months have passed, and the main thing that determines the fate of the region is the profound transformation of the daily lives of the societies involved, along with political shifts. These three years have become not just a calendar of military conflicts, but a period of continuous suspension of life, economic instability and mass displacement of hundreds of thousands of people.
Changing regional equations
After the events of October 7, the government of Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, not only turned Gaza into a pile of earth and iron, killing about 75,000 people, but also tried to change the entire Middle East through a series of conflicts. From Netanyahu's point of view, he has succeeded in weakening Hamas in Gaza, reducing Hezbollah's influence in Lebanon, and challenging Iran's military capabilities. On the other hand, the events in Syria and the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime can be attributed to the processes that Israel's actions in the region accelerated, especially since the current government of Ahmad al-Sharaa does not hide its desire for some kind of agreements with Tel Aviv.
However, a more realistic view is that three years after the October 7 attacks, the Middle East is still gripped by instability and unresolved conflicts. Gaza remains divided and impoverished, under bombardment, and two million Palestinians live in miserable conditions. Hamas remains the main political player in Gaza, and Israel continues to expand its controlled territories. At the same time, violence by Israeli settlers in the West Bank has increased. Hezbollah in Lebanon, although it is in different conditions than before October 7, is still on the scene. At the same time, the continuation of the conflict between the United States and Iran is putting additional pressure on the Gulf states and the global oil economy.
A new crisis for Netanyahu
Media reports that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu received a warning from the United Arab Emirates before the attacks have once again brought to the fore the question of his possible responsibility. Did the Israeli Prime Minister know about the events of October 7?
This is the most important issue that can change Netanyahu's political fate in the first place. Along with it, other questions arise: why were key Palestinian negotiators eliminated during the discussion of the ceasefire and the release of hostages? One more question: why has the Israeli Government repeatedly rejected cease-fire proposals that could have brought the hostages home much sooner?
Inefficiency of diplomatic instruments
The past three years have demonstrated the ineffectiveness, or at least the serious limitations, of traditional diplomatic tools in resolving complex Middle East crises. Numerous international initiatives, ceasefire plans of regional mediators and UN resolutions have repeatedly stalled due to the lack of agreement on sustainable guarantees and the political will of the parties.
The prolongation of this situation has not only led to a fragile transformation of the balance of power and security architecture in the Middle East and structural instability, but has also exposed the gap between world public opinion and international institutions like never before. Over the past 36 months, concepts such as international law, human rights, and transnational responsibility have largely lost their reputation and deterrent function in competition with the harsh realities on earth, giving way to a sharp polarization at the level of Western and Eastern societies. Operation Al-Aqsa Storm began with the difficult overcoming of Israel's layered defensive barriers and attacks on bases and settlements around Gaza; an event that led to the deaths of about 1,200 people and the capture of more than 240 hostages and dealt the heaviest blow to intelligence and security in Israel's history.
Israel's military response, which began with the official declaration of martial law, went beyond a tactical response and turned into an unprecedented and comprehensive operation. What was initially called a response quickly escalated into large-scale air strikes, a complete blockade, and then a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip; into a battle aimed at the complete destruction of the military and administrative structure of Hamas and the return of all prisoners.
What's left of Gaza?
According to official figures from health authorities and international organizations, the death toll in Gaza has exceeded tens of thousands of people, most of whom are women and children. Tens of thousands more people have been injured, and they are receiving primary care in the face of a complete collapse of the healthcare system. The official figure exceeds 74 thousand dead. In the Gaza Strip, more than 70% of urban and infrastructural buildings, including water supply, electricity, hospitals, universities and residential buildings, have been completely or partially destroyed. Large areas in the north and center of Gaza have effectively become uninhabitable zones. In addition, more than 1.9 million people (almost 85% of the population of Gaza) have been repeatedly forced to change their place of residence and become internally displaced. Living in tents, severe food shortages, extreme malnutrition among children, and the spread of infectious diseases are the daily realities of this crisis.
A conflict that has become regional
One of the most important dimensions of the past three years has been the spread of the crisis beyond the geography of Gaza and the formation of multiple parallel fronts. The continuous exchange of fire between Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Israeli army, which began in support of Gaza, escalated at various stages into violent clashes, targeted operations, large-scale rocket attacks and even a ground invasion in southern Lebanon, which led to the displacement of tens of thousands of citizens on both sides of the border. Ansar Allah in Yemen, by attacking shipping associated with Israel and its allies in the Bab al-Mandeb and the Red Sea, challenged the security of transportation routes and international trade and involved Western military coalitions in the region. In recent weeks, this group has challenged the military might of Saudi Arabia and is constantly advancing in areas of Yemen that were previously under the control of the official government of the country. Direct clashes and the exchange of missile and drone strikes between Iran and Israel, with the support of the United States, have entered a new phase of the Middle East deterrence equation and revealed an unprecedented type of confrontation.
Public opinion, international law, and political isolation
This three-year crisis has challenged the international system and the legal institutions of the world in an unprecedented way. Numerous lawsuits (including the South African case against Israel on charges of genocide) and the issuance of arrest warrants or requests against top Israeli military and political leaders, primarily Netanyahu himself, have created unprecedented legal and symbolic pressure on a global level. However, everything remained at a symbolic level; the Israeli Prime Minister travels to most countries of the world and acts as their leader at the UN. Student movements, public opinion in Western societies, and civil actions around the world have generated a wave of criticism of Washington's and Europe's policy of supporting the war, which has intensified political divisions within Western countries. Nevertheless, nothing could stop Netanyahu's war machine or even force him to stay true to the peace plan that Trump put on the table.
