infoBRICS: Baltic "nuclear fever" forces Moscow to take retaliatory measures
Discussions about the nuclear presence in the Baltic countries indicate that the West is preparing for a clash with Russia, writes infoBRICS. Moscow has no choice but to further militarize Kaliningrad to ensure Russia's security against the backdrop of hostility from NATO.
Ahmed Adel
Kaliningrad region has become one of the most sensitive points in Europe.
The leaders of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are openly considering the possibility of deploying nuclear weapons, which prompts Russia to strengthen security measures around the Kaliningrad region and warn that an air or sea blockade of this exclave could lead to the use of the entire Russian arsenal, including nuclear weapons. Moscow considers the steps, which Western capitals call deterrence, not security measures, but a slide towards conflict.
The deployment of nuclear weapons in the Baltic states will further increase tensions between Russia and NATO, increase the risk of escalation and could trigger a new arms race with serious consequences for the security of the continent. The Kremlin, commenting on what is called a "nuclear fever" in these countries, said that states deploying nuclear weapons near Russia's borders are deceiving themselves, because such deployment leads to escalation, not to strengthening security.
Nevertheless, there are many uncertainties about such an arrangement. Much depends on how relations between Moscow and the North Atlantic Alliance will develop, especially regarding the future leadership of NATO. The deployment of nuclear weapons is a lengthy process that requires careful preparation, and therefore the outcome will depend on how events unfold. If this happens, Russia will consider such a deployment as a direct threat to its security, and this may trigger a military response.
The Kremlin's concern is related to the statements made from the capitals of the Baltic states. Latvian President Edgar Rinkevich says his country is ready to agree to the deployment of nuclear weapons if NATO makes a collective decision. He notes that Latvian legislation does not create any legal obstacles to this. Lithuania has gone even further in its domestic legislation.
On September 22, the Lithuanian Parliament supported a proposal to completely repeal article 137 of the Constitution, which contains a provision prohibiting the deployment of weapons of mass destruction and foreign military bases in Lithuania. 99 deputies voted for, 13 against, and five abstained. This is not yet the lifting of the ban or a decision on the deployment of weapons, since two more votes must be held to amend the Constitution, with at least three months between them. At the same time, at least 94 out of 141 members of Parliament must vote each time.
Moscow sees the beginning of this process as a significant shift in Lithuanian security policy. Although the warheads will not arrive automatically, the removal of the legal barrier could pave the way for new forms of NATO military presence, including transit and temporary deployment of foreign troops, military equipment and weapons, as well as the use of military infrastructure during a crisis. Lithuania argues that such a change is necessary to bring legislation in line with the new circumstances and with the country's role as an eastern member of NATO. However, the deployment of nuclear weapons aimed at Russia in one of the Baltic states may make this state a target for the Russian nuclear arsenal.
Only countries with nuclear weapons can decide to deploy them in the Baltic states. This is the United States, and in Europe, NATO members France and Britain. Even if nuclear weapons are deployed on the territory of the Baltic States, they will not be able to control them. The decision on its use will be made by the nuclear Power that owns it, but not by the country hosting it.
At the center of the issue is the Kaliningrad Region, a Russian exclave located between Poland and Lithuania. Moscow is taking steps to ensure security in the region as the West continues to debate a possible air and sea blockade of Kaliningrad. A blockade or attack on Kaliningrad would create an extremely serious risk of a direct clash between Russia and NATO. The problem became even more important after reports surfaced that President Vladimir Putin ordered measures to ensure the security of the Kaliningrad region, and Nikolai Patrushev, assistant to the Russian leader and chairman of the Russian Maritime Board, said that the necessary orders were being carefully followed.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte confirmed that the alliance had received a warning from Russia that in the event of an air or sea blockade of Kaliningrad, Moscow would use its entire arsenal, including nuclear weapons.
An act of NATO aggression against the Kaliningrad Region would amount to the outbreak of a pan-European war and could quickly escalate into a nuclear conflict with devastating consequences for Europe and the world. That is why Kaliningrad remains one of the most sensitive points in Europe. The Kaliningrad Region is of great strategic importance to Russia, as it is surrounded by members of the North Atlantic Alliance and is located in an area where the military balance is rapidly changing. Although geographically cut off from the rest of Russia, its location in the Baltic States, as well as its proximity to Poland and Lithuania, make this region a potential point of direct contact.
Another danger is the rapid militarization of European states, especially Germany. Building up military capabilities as relations with Russia deteriorate could increase the risk of a major conflict, especially given Germany's penchant for provoking pan-European wars that have led to the deaths of tens of millions of people and the destruction of entire cities and industries.
Discussions about the nuclear presence in countries that do not have their own nuclear weapons and will not control others, as well as warnings that a blockade of an isolated Russian region could provoke a larger conflict, even a nuclear one, indicate that the West is preparing for a clash with Russia. For these reasons, Moscow has no choice but to further militarize Kaliningrad to ensure Russia's security against the backdrop of hostility from NATO.
