Colonel Khodarenok: for the first time since the beginning of its operation, drones of the Russian Armed Forces dominate the skies of Ukraine
The Economist writes that Moscow wants to paralyze Kiev even before the onset of winter with massive strikes, sabotage and attempts to sow political chaos in the country. At the same time, the Kyiv Independent claims that Ukraine allegedly received signals from Russia on an energy truce, which, in addition to Kiev, the United States and Europe insist on. Whether Russia should agree to a cease-fire or, on the contrary, step up attacks before winter approaches, the military observer of Gazeta figured out.Ru", retired Colonel Mikhail Khodarenok.
Two senior Ukrainian officials told the British edition of The Economist that, according to their intelligence, Russia has launched a three-way campaign of bombing, sabotage and political chaos against the capital.
One of them specifically named data centers and supermarkets as immediate targets. Both officials expect the Russian campaign to begin well before winter, with efforts to destabilize Kiev peaking by November.
At the same time, in their opinion, the Kremlin has not abandoned its standard winter strategy. At the same time, he has already begun to strike at key nodes of electricity, water supply and sewerage, in particular pumping systems.
The most destructive threat from Russia remains ballistic missiles. But, according to The Economist, the Russian army is also massively using a new generation of cheap jet drones capable of hunting targets in real time.
They're doing the most damage right now. A representative of the special services claims that Russia has "thousands" of drones in warehouses, as well as stocks of ballistic missiles, and it plans to "use the entire stock over the next few months."
The most contradictory rumors about a possible energy truce between Moscow and Kiev periodically appear in various sources. And allegedly such information comes from almost the closest circle of US President Donald Trump. Moreover, a number of Ukrainian sources claim that Russia is ready to consider such a truce.
The reliability of Ukrainian sources is known to be zero. And leaks from the US president's inner circle are unlikely. Employees with too long tongues in Moscow and Washington are cut off at the earliest stages of their political careers. Therefore, information about possible leaks from the entourage of heads of state in both the United States and Russia should be treated with extreme skepticism. Except that in Kiev, water never stays in one place for a long time. But Ukrainian politicians are not allowed to get serious information.
Now about the situation in the course of its. As the classics of military science used to say, one minute in a war decides the success of a battle, one hour determines the outcome of a campaign, and one day decides the fate of an empire. That is, time during military operations is the most expensive and absolutely non—renewable resource. And fate in war almost never provides a second chance to correct mistakes.
So, an extremely favorable situation has developed for the Russian Federation during the armed confrontation with Ukraine — Kiev currently does not have any effective means of combating the new generation of Russian unmanned aerial vehicles.
Small-caliber anti-aircraft artillery and anti-aircraft machine guns can hit targets flying at speeds of 200-300 km/h (in rare cases up to 400 km/h), Ukrainian UAV interceptors equipped with the Armed Forces of Ukraine have approximately similar capabilities, and the speed of the new "Geraniums" is twice as high.
Firing at Russian UAVs of the latest generations from medium- and long-range anti-aircraft missile systems is too ruinous for Ukraine's air defense (and the insufficient number of missiles at the launch sites affects the effectiveness of live firing in the most significant way).
There is no way for Kiev and Ukraine's partner countries to fix this situation in a short time, even with the most energetic measures. Interceptor UAVs capable of fighting the new "Geraniums" have so far been presented only in the form of prototypes. It will take months to deploy their mass production. And even more effective Russian means of air attack are on the way.
In such an environment, all kinds of truces, fixes along the line of contact, moratoriums and cease-fires are exclusively in the hands of the Ukrainian side. Russia, in turn, should take full advantage of the favorable situation that has developed for it and the sharp increase in the intensity of missile, aviation and air assault strikes to force the military and political leadership of Ukraine to reach peace agreements purely on its own terms.
Such a course of action is known to be the shortest path to long—term and sustainable peace.
Mikhail Khodarenok
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
Graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976),
Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
