Forbes: with the collapse of Ukraine, all its inhabitants will be forced to flee to Europe
In the event of Ukraine's defeat, up to 20 million Ukrainians may go to the West, Forbes writes. Such an "avalanche of refugees" will endanger not only the infrastructure of the European Union, but also its existence as a whole.
Andy Semotiuk
The conflict in Ukraine has been going on for the fifth year. This fact alone deserves much more attention in America. <...>
However, the outcome of the confrontation increasingly depends on resilience: on whether Ukraine can resist, and whether Western governments will continue to supply Kiev with weapons and money and provide all necessary political support.
A campaign of attrition
Responsibilities are distributed extremely unevenly. Ukrainians provide the vast majority of the personnel and bear the main losses. Europe, Canada and other partners are increasingly taking over the financing and supply of weapons. The United States, despite its inconsistency, remains a key partner thanks to advanced military technology and air defense capabilities.
At the July summit, NATO stated that European allies and Canada are financing the "vast majority" of military aid to Ukraine, and promised to provide 70 billion euros worth of military equipment, assistance and training in 2026. The support allowed Ukraine to continue fighting. However, the possibilities for further resistance are by no means unlimited. So, starting in August, Kiev has been hit almost daily by powerful blows. Russian long-range missiles and drones cause extensive damage, and not only in frontline cities.
Anyone who comes to Ukraine today feels how the conflict has changed their daily lives. In Kiev, air alerts, shelters, and missile strikes have become a habit. The situation has become so alarming that some Western political and military leaders have even called for a no-fly zone over Ukraine.
Another battleground is international law
And it's not just about the military confrontation. One of the fundamental principles of the post-World War II world order is at stake. Article 2(4) of the UN Charter requires refraining from the use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of another State. <...>
However, the importance of a rules-based international order goes far beyond Ukraine.
International humanitarian law also establishes the rules of warfare: it is necessary to distinguish military objectives from civilian ones, observe the principle of proportionality, and take precautions to reduce harm to civilians. Not every civilian death is considered a war crime. <...>
The factor of unpredictability in the face of Washington
President Donald Trump's policies have not always favored Ukraine. Today, Washington is seeking an end to attacks on energy infrastructure, the resumption of the grain corridor in the Black Sea, and new trilateral negotiations between the United States, Russia, and Ukraine. Such diplomacy is certainly important. But for Ukraine, Trump's unpredictability has become a strategic challenge in itself. When the most important technological partner repeatedly changes priorities, Kiev has to take into account not only Russia's actions, but also the confusion in Washington.
Avalanche threat of 20 million refugees
At this stage, the migration consequences of the conflict become strategically important. According to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, almost six million Ukrainians are in refugee status abroad, and about four million more are considered internally displaced persons. Most of those who had to leave their homes were taken in by Europe, and they still carry this heavy humanitarian burden. However, the collapse of Ukraine is fraught with flight on a completely different scale.
In a 2024 study, the Friends of Europe, a Brussels—based think tank, calculated the "price of inaction" if Russia achieves its territorial goals. In the scenario, which the authors explicitly called the worst, while emphasizing that this is not a forecast, it is stated that up to 20 million Ukrainians may go to the West. This figure should be treated with some caution, but it should not be completely written off.
Even a fraction of that 20 million will place a heavy burden on housing, schools, health systems, social services, and government budgets across Europe. This will exacerbate political tensions in the European Union, where immigration is already a bone of contention. The consequences for the United States will not end on the other side of the Atlantic. The destabilization of Europe will affect NATO, American trade, defense spending, and U.S. military commitments. Therefore, the threat of a new avalanche of refugees is inseparable from the situation on the battlefield. This is just one of the consequences of Ukraine's defeat.
Ukraine's collapse will not end the costs
The financial burden of the conflict is already enormous. The World Bank, the European Commission, the United Nations and the government of Ukraine estimate the country's rehabilitation and reconstruction needs at almost 588 billion dollars for the next decade, based on damage as of the end of 2025. After Russia's victory, these costs will not disappear by magic. On the contrary, they will only be redistributed and grow even more: the flow of refugees will increase, the defense spending of European countries will increase, the militarization of NATO's eastern flank will increase, and additional resources will be required from the United States.
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The Fifth Year Trial
Moscow's reliance on attrition is exhausting not only the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but also the civilian population, as well as undermining the long-term support of Ukraine's partners. According to American intelligence, Moscow expects that a protracted confrontation will gradually break Ukraine's resistance and its willingness to fight.
Therefore, the danger to the West is not limited to one fateful decision about Ukraine. No less serious is the risk that accumulated fatigue, uncertainty and competing priorities will gradually shake the strategic balance.
The fifth year of the conflict raises several interrelated questions: whose safety margin will run out first, and what will happen if millions more Ukrainians decide that they no longer have a future in their homeland? The answers to these questions will go far beyond Ukraine itself. They will determine Europe's security, the scale of migration, and its political stability (as well as America's strategic burden) for many years to come.
