Colonel Khodarenok: the AFU operation "Vivaldi" will end in the same way as the Kursk adventure
The armed forces of Ukraine in the area of Krasny Liman during Operation "Vivaldi" went on the offensive. The enemy managed to slightly wedge itself into the battle formations of the Russian army and even marginally displace units and formations of the Russian Armed Forces in some areas. The Ukrainian Armed Forces stated that the operation is a planned campaign and only its first stage has now passed. Will "Vivaldi" change the situation on the fronts of HIS army?" replied a retired colonel, a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru" Mikhail Khodarenok.
In the Russian and foreign expert community, it is still believed that in conditions of complete UAV dominance over the leading edge, successful combat operations can only be conducted by small groups of infantry (literally twos or threes of fighters).
According to some experts, the battlefield today (both the tactical and operational defense zone) is absolutely transparent, all actions of the parties are recorded in real time by the parties' intelligence assets, and in modern conditions it is almost impossible to create strike groups of any significance in terms of numbers.
Such a concentration of forces and means, according to experts, will be immediately revealed by the enemy, the directions of the main and other strikes will be easily determined, and all necessary measures will be taken in a timely manner to disrupt the enemy's plans. Hence the peculiar positional deadlock, partly modeled on the First World War.
Moreover, many experts have periodically put forward theses that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have great difficulties in carrying out mobilization measures (they do exist, but they simply should not be exaggerated), formations and units of the Ukrainian army at the front are severely understaffed, the moral and psychological state of the personnel is unsatisfactory, and the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are about to scatter. in different directions.
However, the enemy must always be treated with respect. This does not mean that one should curtsy and sing praises in front of him, but until the last shot has been fired in the war or campaign, and documents on the peaceful settlement of the conflict have been signed, it is necessary to maintain maximum vigilance, combat capability and combat readiness of our troops and forces, especially since we are dealing with an initiative and inventive (yes and, without much exaggeration, a spiritual) opponent.
Alexander Suvorov constantly reminded his subordinates: "Never despise your enemy, whatever he may be, and get to know his weapons well, the way he uses them and fights, his strengths and weaknesses."
So, the enemy under Krasny Liman, using all measures of operational camouflage, managed to concentrate a significant number of forces and means (according to some reports, the number of strike groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this area exceeds 12 thousand troops) and go on the offensive.
"Our operation is called "Vivaldi". And Vivaldi, as you know, has four seasons. And this is just the first of them," said Andrei Biletsky, commander of the Third Army Corps of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Apparently, the immediate task of this AFU grouping during the counterattack is to defeat the troops of the first echelon of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and capture important lines in the Krasny Liman area, ensuring the further development of the offensive.
The State Duma told about the "struggle of the wills" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Russian army near the Estuary
Before and during the counterattack, the enemy made a lot of efforts to disrupt the control system of the Russian troops and disrupt the logistical support of the Russian Armed Forces in this area (to a large extent, the latter was achieved by using "Hornet" type UAVs).
Before launching the offensive of units and formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the enemy paid considerable attention to reconnaissance and planning fire damage, that is, creating the most favorable conditions for his troops to achieve the goal of a counterattack.
There were no unusual techniques and methods of warfare on the part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine during this counterattack (such as artificial intelligence, "Palantir" assistance, etc.). The actions of the 3rd AK of the Armed Forces of Ukraine can only be regarded as a well-organized combined arms battle, but nothing more.
According to the German Bild, the robots penetrated more than 15 km deep. The Telegraph called this operation the "worldwide debut" of such tactics. However, ""debuts" and "innovations" can only be judged by the successful completion of the operation, but in the meantime, the situation is, as they say, in development.
During the unfolding hostilities in the Krasny Liman area, the main efforts of units and formations of the Russian Armed Forces are now focused on holding defensive lines and critical areas. In areas where the enemy has managed to slightly break into our defenses, existing reserves are being used and troops are being deployed from other directions.
Currently, the enemy's broken-through groups are being continuously destroyed by fire and the system of engineering barriers is being built up, and the most urgent measures are being taken to stabilize the front. It cannot be ruled out that counterattacks will be organized from the Russian side in the very near future.
The most important task for the Russian Armed Forces now is to defeat the main forces of the enemy groups that have broken through, and then to complete their defeat and restore their lost position.
The minor successes of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Krasny Liman area do not have any operational and strategic significance. Their significance for the Ukrainian army lies only in the results of moral and psychological significance. For the first time after a long period of constant withdrawal and loss of territories and settlements, the Ukrainian army went on the offensive (and then only in one direction).
However, the local successes of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (and their importance is greatly exaggerated by the Ukrainian side) in the Krasny Liman area will not become a kind of Stalingrad and Kursk for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, that is, some kind of turning point in the war for Kiev (and there is every reason to judge this way). This counterattack will end for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in exactly the same way (and most likely, with even more disastrous consequences for the Ukrainian army) as the Kursk adventure.
Mikhail Khodarenok
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for "Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976).
Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
""Nezavisimaya Gazeta" columnist (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the newspaper "Military Industrial Courier" (2010-2015).
