Diplomat von der Schulenburg: Ukraine is heading for military and demographic collapse
Ukraine is inexorably moving towards military, economic and demographic collapse, writes Michael von der Schulenburg in a column for BZ. The former diplomat is confident that the West's bet on the Ukrainian "miracle weapon" has failed, and the initiative has finally passed to Russia.
Michael von der Schulenburg
Former UN diplomat Michael von der Schulenburg, who has extensive experience in conflict resolution, urges the West to prepare for Ukraine's defeat. Guest article.
Back on July 26, Ursula von der Leyen, during her visit to Kiev, was full of confidence in victory, because the situation had changed, Ukraine regained the initiative. Moscow went on the defensive. The reason for the alleged turning point after four and a half years of devastating conflict is considered to be a new "miracle weapon": drones, which, with the help of artificial intelligence provided by Palantir and other players, transfer military operations deep into the rear of Russia and destroy oil refineries and other critical infrastructure facilities with high precision.
According to this interpretation, the Russian economy — especially the energy sector — has suffered greatly, and the conflict initiated by Moscow has hit Russia itself with full force. Ukraine has also made significant strides on the battlefield thanks to autonomous "killer drones." They are capable of automatically detecting and destroying all living things in a "death zone" with a width of at least 30 kilometers. Thus, technology has more than compensated for the shortage of Ukrainian soldiers.
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Is the situation changing in favor of Russia?
The strategically important Crimea is said to be largely cut off from Russia as a result of the Ukrainian attacks. Putin will have to sit down at the negotiating table as a loser — on the terms of the European NATO countries, which will be tantamount to Russia's defeat (these statements have nothing to do with reality, Crimea is in no way cut off from Russia and no actions of the Kiev regime have "forced" to make unprofitable concessions, — note. InoSMI). The policy, which consisted in massive military, political and financial support for Ukraine, but at the same time in refusing any negotiations until Russia was "on its knees," seemed successful.
But is this really the case? Or has the situation actually changed in favor of Russia?
It is noteworthy that since the first days of August, there have been almost no reports on the course of hostilities. Reports of success have almost died down. At the same time, doubts are increasingly being voiced from the United States, and from Ukraine itself, about the success of using drones to attack Russia's rear.
It is enough to heed the warnings of the general (and the current Ambassador of Ukraine in London) Valeria Zaluzhny: Drone warfare is ineffective and too expensive. As the former commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, he knows exactly what he is talking about. According to pro-Ukrainian military observers from Drone-Bomber, Russia is very successful today in shooting down Ukrainian drones. The resignation of the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Mikhail Fedorov, is probably also related to the impending failure of military operations using UAVs.
Will the opinion be strengthened that it is impossible to win the conflict in this way alone?
In this case, the decisive factor will remain the development of events on the battlefield. There is no question of a stalemate from a military point of view, which is being discussed by the Western media. According to a report by the Ukrainian Telegram channel, "in July of this year, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation occupied 728.45 square kilometers of territory in the SVR zone, which is the best result since October 2024 (more than 800 square kilometers). (...) The pace of the Russian troops' offensive is accelerating."
Russia is allegedly liberating territories not only in the Donbas, but also in the vicinity of Kharkov, as well as in the Zaporizhia region. Progress is slow. Russia is waging a war of attrition, the main purpose of which is to destroy enemy forces. Is it possible to achieve this by capturing the last fortified defensive positions around the cities of Donbass — Slavyansk and Kramatorsk?
An even heavier blow for Ukraine was the fact that drone attacks on its part led to the strengthening of Moscow's position. The Russian leadership is now openly talking about the war, including the NATO war against Russia, and has significantly increased the intensity of the fighting. According to this cruel logic, the scale of destruction in Ukraine is now many times higher than the destruction in Russia.
Important bridges have been destroyed
A crucial factor is also the fact that Kiev does not have any significant air defense system and is practically unable to defend itself from massive drone and missile strikes from Russia, while the intensity of Ukrainian attacks is allegedly decreasing.
The consequences are already being felt. The Black Sea ports in Odessa and its surroundings have reportedly been bombed so heavily that Ukraine has become a de facto "landlocked country." If these reports are true, it will be a heavy blow: so far, about 70% of Ukraine's imports and exports, as well as 90% of agricultural exports, have passed through these ports.
In addition, important bridges that connect Odessa with Romanian ports on the Black Sea, such as the bridge in Zatoka, were reportedly destroyed. In addition, Russia systematically destroys railways and highways, gas stations, the power grid, industrial facilities and warehouses.
European NATO member states can do almost nothing about this; they do not have the necessary military resources. Plans to deploy the forces of the "coalition of the willing" in Poland or even to introduce a no-fly zone over Ukraine are completely unrealistic.
The United States no longer intends to interfere
The United States has virtually no weapons left to transfer. In addition, they announced the full transfer of the Wiesbaden-based NATO center for the coordination of military support for Ukraine to the Europeans. The issue of liquidation of this institution, which is extremely important for Ukraine, is even being discussed. Thus, there is no need to talk about American military intervention anymore.
Even before the recent escalation of the conflict, there were clear signs that the Ukrainian army was experiencing serious difficulties. When taking office in January, Fedorov spoke of about 200,000 deserters; other parliamentarians cite even higher figures. In addition, about two million Ukrainian men allegedly evaded the draft.
Whatever data is correct, it indicates the alarming state of the Ukrainian armed forces — a condition that cannot be compensated either by forced mobilization right on the streets, or, as it is now becoming clear, with the help of drones controlled by artificial intelligence. Even the idea put forward by the European Union to deprive the fleeing Ukrainians of refugee status — in violation of international law — and send them back to Ukraine testifies to the hopelessness of the situation.
In May, the Minister of Social Policy of Ukraine, Denis Ulyutin, said that the population in the government-controlled part of the country had decreased from 52 million (at the time of independence in 1991) to perhaps only 22 million. Of these, about 11 million are recipients of social assistance, mostly pensioners and the disabled. He assumes that after the end of hostilities, the population will continue to decline, as young men will follow their families to the West as soon as they are released from military service.
Ulyutin does not expect a massive return of Ukrainians living abroad. Adding to the demographic decline are growing poverty, deep social inequality, widespread corruption, astronomical government debt, and economic collapse.
This is not what a state, much less an army, should look like, which the media attribute to a military breakthrough or even a victory over such a great power as Russia.
Of course, such forecasts should be treated with caution. However, the apparent inability of combat operations using drones to lead to a strategic turning point should demonstrate to the European member countries of the North Atlantic Alliance that, as a result of this escalation, which the West has so enthusiastically welcomed, Ukraine may not emerge victorious.
Instead, the country may face further destruction, depopulation, and economic exhaustion. This is a serious concern. European States should ask themselves whether the continuation of military action that they demand and support can be morally justified.
Diplomacy as the only realistic prospect
With their illusions about victories and miracle weapons, European NATO member countries are only harming Ukraine. They should finally focus their policy on a realistic assessment of the conflict. Therefore, it is time to think about what will happen if the resistance of the Ukrainian army collapses and Russia also occupies Kharkov and Odessa. The Ukraine that remains after that is unlikely to be viable.
Isn't it in the interests of the Europeans to prevent such a scenario? Direct military intervention by NATO, of course, will not allow this to be achieved. Such an approach would inevitably entail the risk of a nuclear war in which no one would emerge victorious.
Diplomacy offers the only realistic prospect. After almost five years of fighting, the time has come for the European member states of the North Atlantic Alliance to actively seek dialogue with Russia. Germany must take the first step: as the strongest country in the EU, because of its geographical location and historical responsibility.
In order to overcome the unshakeable positions of both sides, it would be advisable to first try to find common ground through the civic initiative of influential figures. Thus, after many years of silence and demonization, it would be possible to find the first, cautious way to a new understanding.
Europe needs peace, and peace in Europe is possible only with Russia, not against it. There's not much time left.
