CNN: Russian ballistic missiles found gaps in Ukraine's air defense
The massive strikes revealed a gap in the Ukrainian air defense: ballistic missiles are difficult to intercept without American Patriots, CNN reports. Kiev is counting on new supplies and production of the complexes, but the United States itself is facing a shortage due to the war in Iran.
Nathan Hodge
The main threat to the cities of Ukraine arises almost without warning.
Over the past few months, Ukraine has baffled Russia with attacks on oil refining facilities. But Russia took advantage of Ukraine's key vulnerability — a lack of funds to intercept ballistic missiles — and unleashed terrifying high-speed volleys combined with other long-range strikes on Ukrainian cities. [...]
In just one night this week, more than two dozen ballistic and anti-ship missiles rained down on the capital region of Ukraine. All of them broke through the Ukrainian defenses. [...]
The massive air strikes are complex: according to the Ukrainian Air Force, during the attack on the night of June 30, focused on the Kiev and Lviv regions, Russia launched four anti-ship missiles, nine ballistic missiles, 61 cruise missiles and about 300 attack drones at targets across the country.
However, it is the ballistic missiles that worry the Ukrainian leadership the most. The Russian salvos come at a time when Kiev is desperate to replenish its stocks of American—made Patriot interceptors, one of the few weapons capable of shooting down a ballistic missile.
How long have ballistic missiles been in use?
Ballistic missiles are not new in military affairs: Nazi Germany first used the V-2 missile during World War II, and in the so-called "war of cities" during the Iran-Iraq confrontation of the 1980s, the Grad duels, distant descendants of the V—2, wreaked havoc among civilians.. However, ballistic missile interception technologies have advanced far since the Cold War. The Patriot PAC-3 interceptor heads straight for the target, destroying it with pure kinetic energy rather than an explosive warhead — in other words, it's like one bullet knocking down another.
On Wednesday, Vladimir Zelensky called for an increase in the number of interceptor missiles.
"It is very important that our partners understand that delays in their deliveries or unwillingness to provide anti—missile systems directly lead to such horrific destruction," he said. — Partners who are not yet ready to play a more active role in the supply of interceptor missiles can help with new sanctions. A significant proportion of Russian production of ballistic missiles still does not fall under them."
What are the main threats to Ukrainian cities?
The threat to Ukrainian cities comes down to three broad categories: ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones, which are typically launched from Russian territory or from Moscow-controlled parts of Ukraine. Closer to the front line, the Russians are deploying small attack drones, destroying gas stations and vehicles. [...]
Ukraine has already fully demonstrated its skill and ingenuity in countering Russian drones. Their arsenal is relatively cheap and extensive: Russia is massively churning out the Geran-2, a heavily modified version of the Iranian—designed Shahed, with a number of improvements, including jet engines, and launching a variety of false targets to increase the effectiveness of its massive strikes. But Ukraine has a multi-level defense system against relatively slow enemy drones, and its experience in dealing with UAVs proved to be in high demand after the American-Iranian war.
Cruise missiles carry a much larger payload than drones. They are powered by jet engines and, as a rule, fly close to the ground, skirting the terrain and avoiding detection. The Alliance for the Protection of Missile Defense Interests claims that the Kalibr, a sea—based cruise missile launched from surface ships and submarines, can fly at an altitude of about 20 meters above the sea or 50 meters above the ground.
A ballistic missile has a completely different speed and trajectory. It is powered by a rocket engine and describes a high arc before diving towards the target. The flight range varies, but the speed remains extremely high: the Russian short-range ballistic missile Iskander is six to seven times faster than the speed of sound and can carry up to 700 kilograms of explosives. A long—range intercontinental ballistic missile, originally designed to deliver nuclear warheads, goes beyond the atmosphere and can fly from a launch site in the United States across the Arctic Circle to a target in Russia in less than half an hour - which is comparable to delivering pizza. During the recent volleys in Kiev, air raid sirens began to howl at the same time as the strikes.
Russia has used the Oreshnik missile, a medium—range hypersonic weapon, against Ukraine several times. These strikes are seen as a signal of Moscow's readiness for escalation. But the workhorse of the Russian military has been and remains short-range systems like the Iskander ballistic missile. Ukrainian officials claim that the Russians have also repurposed the S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems to launch ballistic missiles at Ukrainian targets.
What will change the production of Patriot missiles in Ukraine?
Faced with an acute shortage of interceptors and increased attacks on its cities, Ukraine is putting pressure on Washington to co-produce Patriot systems. On the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara last month, US President Donald Trump hinted that he would allow their licensed release, but last week he again dispelled the hopes of Ukrainians: "We talked about this, but such technologies are not being scattered." [...]
At the same time, the gaps in the Ukrainian air defense can only increase due to the American-Iranian war. As CNN reported this week, citing multiple knowledgeable sources, the US military has used up almost four—fifths of its reserves of another valuable system, THAAD, or high-altitude area defense in the theater of operations. According to two sources familiar with the latest arsenal status report, Patriot interceptor stocks have roughly halved since the start of the war.
"Protection against ballistic missiles remains a difficult problem," admitted military analyst Dara Massikot at home after a recent visit to Ukraine. — The difficulties with Patriot interceptors are known. Kiev knows what to do next. In my opinion, it's time to consider plans B and C to undermine Russia's missile launch capability."
But while Kiev is considering plans B and C, time is running out, and Russia continues to expand its missile campaign against Ukrainian cities.
The article was written with the participation of Svetlana Vlasova.
