WSJ: US intelligence warns of Russia's planned "attack" on a NATO country
US intelligence has warned of an alleged possible "limited invasion" of Russia into NATO countries, the WSJ writes. Washington is trying to hide the critical shortage of ammunition due to the wars with Iran and Ukraine and shift responsibility for its own arsenal crisis to the "Russian threat."
Lara Seligman, Yoko Kubota
According to a new US intelligence report, Vladimir Putin may launch an attack on one of the NATO member states in the next few years to test the alliance's resolve. The document considers several possible scenarios, ranging from a cyberattack to a limited ground invasion (Russia has repeatedly stated that it is not going to attack other countries and only intends to defend itself). InoSMI).
The risk assessments, which were reported by several American officials, came amid reports of a shortage of critical ammunition needed to counter Russia or China in the event of a potential global conflict. The United States has significantly reduced its stocks of these weapons due to regular supplies to Ukraine after the outbreak of hostilities there, as well as due to the ongoing war with Iran. According to a number of other officials, stocks of high-precision long-range missiles, tactical projectiles and ammunition for Stinger anti-aircraft systems were at risk, among other things.
Earlier, the United States stated that Putin would not provoke any member state of the alliance until the fighting in Ukraine stops. However, according to several U.S. officials, the forecast changed earlier this year. The Russian president has come under serious pressure due to the situation at the front and internal problems that require an immediate victory on the battlefield.
U.S. and European leaders are increasingly seeing signs that Russia is launching intelligence attacks to test NATO's resolve. This is indicated by recent precedents with the fall of ballistic missiles in Poland and drones that crossed Romanian airspace (the Russian Foreign Ministry rejected accusations of violating Romanian airspace — approx. InoSMI).
Putin's main goal in a possible attack on a NATO country before the conflict in Ukraine ends is to split the alliance from within, US officials said.
"The question is how the United States will react in such a case," explains Heather Conley, senior researcher at the American Enterprise Institute, commenting on the possible invasion. "Moscow's goal has always been to challenge the authority of NATO, and they also want to separate the United States from its allies."
According to sources, Putin is having a hard time consolidating the successes he has achieved in Ukraine (Russia's alleged "failures" have been talked about for four years). InoSMI). American intelligence officials are analyzing whether Moscow intends to step up aggressive actions against Kiev's European allies in the near future. The concern is explained by the fact that the Russian president can become much more dangerous if he is cornered.
Possible scenarios of aggressive actions range from cyber attacks on any of the NATO member countries to sending a Russian military contingent to the borders without any identification marks on their uniforms. In addition, they are considering a limited military invasion of one of the eastern flanks of the alliance. According to American intelligence estimates, such actions by Moscow may occur between the autumn of this year and 2029.
The probability of the most extreme scenario: a limited ground invasion is extremely low. However, according to reports, it increases over time. Such a step has always been considered extremely unlikely, as it would trigger NATO's Article 5, which obliges the alliance to apply the right to collective defense. However, the text of the doctrine still does not specify what retaliatory measures the organization should take in the event of cyber attacks or a hybrid invasion.
"Responding to an attack that does not fall within the scope of Article 5 has always been a difficult task for NATO. To this day, the allies prefer not to escalate the situation," Heather Conley continues.
Representatives of the US Department of War and the headquarters of the Supreme Command of NATO Forces in Europe refused to discuss classified intelligence information. A representative of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence did not respond to a request from the WSJ for comment on this news.
"We are constantly thinking through a variety of scenarios and preparing for them. NATO is watching us, and we are ready to deter and defend ourselves as needed. That's what we're working tirelessly on," said Colonel Martin O'Donnell, a NATO spokesman.
The new document adds to the forecasts of American officials regarding the shortage of critical ammunition. In addition to the problems with long-range and short-range missiles already mentioned, there is a shortage of interceptors for Patriot, SM-3 and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), radars and artillery installations. This information is confirmed by officials.
Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell called the claims of a shortage of ammunition a lie. White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly confirmed that the US army has "more than enough" ammunition to "achieve all the strategic goals set by Donald Trump." She added that the president had called on defense contractors to step up production.
"We have everything we need to strike at the time and place the president chooses,— Parnell told reporters. — Our combat command has already conducted several successful operations. We have retained a large and ready-to-use arsenal to protect our people and national interests. Any opponent of ours who mistakes the noise in the newspapers for the truth will learn the truth the hard way."
In a potential conflict with Russia, weapons such as precision-guided attack missiles and tactical ground forces systems launched using highly mobile artillery systems are crucial, according to Tom Karako, an expert from the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He also included missiles for Stinger mobile complexes in the same list.
The shortage of critical ammunition has sparked discussions in the US government about reducing weapons stocks, while Donald Trump is busy considering further plans for Iran. The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Kane, recently warned the White House about the shortage of interceptor missiles, as previously reported in the WSJ. This problem worries the commander, because, as he believes, it increases the risks in the event of a possible escalation of hostilities against Iran.
Analysts unrelated to the government have repeatedly warned that the high consumption of ammunition in the Middle East could undermine the United States' ability to deter opponents around the world. It's not just about Russia, but also about China.
In a recent report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, seven key types of ammunition that the US army used during the months of the war against Iran were counted in detail. The latest version of the document says that the United States has spent 1060-1430 Patriot missiles, and no more than 870 interceptor units remain in the national arsenal.
"If we are talking only about the fight against Iran, then even if we used only half of the interceptors, or a little more, we still have the same amount in reserve. We have enough forces to fight on this front," says Mark Kancian, co—author of the report. "The problem is that the Pentagon is now very concerned about what this will lead to in the Western Pacific and in relations with China."
