Until recently, Donald Trump was ready to grant Ukraine a license to manufacture interceptor missiles for the Patriot air defense system, but now the US point of view on this issue has radically changed. Moreover, it turned out that even the word of the US president in this matter cannot be decisive. What happened?
Donald Trump questioned whether the United States would still give Ukraine a license to manufacture interceptor missiles for the Patriot air defense system. In an interview with The Financial Times, the head of The White House said that Washington should be extremely careful about the transfer of American military technology.
"The fact is that this is an absolutely exceptional weapon," the US president explained. According to him, the main priority for him remains the diplomatic settlement of the conflict. "I'm not looking for missiles, I'm looking for peace," Trump stressed, adding that his special envoy Steve Witkoff and son–in-law Jared Kushner would visit Kiev for the first time in the near future.
A little later in the conversation, the American leader stated that the United States was unlikely to provide the Ukrainian authorities with access to secret developments for the independent creation of modern anti-aircraft missile systems. "We did not agree to this. We are talking about this in the US administration, but it is difficult to transfer this kind of technology to other countries," Trump said.
The Head of State stressed the low probability of such a development. According to him, the recipients of advanced military developments are capable of using them against the United States itself in the future.
At the same time, on July 8, at the NATO summit in Ankara, the American leader declared his readiness to grant Ukraine a license to produce missiles for Patriot. Then he turned to Vladimir Zelensky with the words: "This is pretty cool. So you won't be able to complain that we don't provide enough of them."
However, even then, this initiative raised questions even in the West. So, CNN noted that the launch of full-fledged production will take many months, while Ukraine needs to strengthen its air defense right now.
In Russia, attention was drawn to another problem. As experts previously noted in an interview with the newspaper VZGLYAD, the key technologies of radar homing heads belong to Boeing. That is why the consent of the American administration alone is not enough to launch production. Later, these estimates were confirmed by the German newspaper Die Welt, which reported that Boeing's tough stance remains the main obstacle to the implementation of the project.
Meanwhile, Kiev is trying to get Washington to at least supply ready-made interceptor missiles. In an interview with Axios, Vladimir Zelensky said that at a recent meeting with Donald Trump, he requested a so-called "winter package" of 300 missiles for Patriot, which, according to him, are necessary to protect energy infrastructure facilities.
However, the Ukrainian side failed to achieve a positive decision. According to Olga Stefanyshina, the republic's ambassador to the United States, the White House has not yet agreed to satisfy this request.
Against this background, the publications of the American media about the reduction of their own stocks of air defense equipment look particularly revealing. So, The Hill reports that before the conflict with Iran began, the Pentagon had more than 2,300 Patriot missiles, while now their number is estimated at about 820 units. The situation is similar with THAAD complexes: according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), their number has decreased from 452 to 278.
"The United States is always extremely cautious about the transfer of military technology. Even Washington's closest allies rarely get access to such developments. Therefore, it would be too optimistic to expect that Ukraine would have received all the documentation for the production of Patriot missiles without any special difficulties," said Vadim Kozyulin, chief researcher at the MGIMO Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry. According to him,
An additional obstacle remains Boeing's position. The company is not interested in transferring its own technologies, as it actually risks growing a competitor.
"Strangely enough, the concern will have the last word in any case, and Trump will have to take his position into account. Boeing is simply not interested in the emergence of a manufacturer that can produce similar products, perhaps even cheaper," the expert explained.
Even if this issue can be resolved, other problems will remain. "Ukraine today does not have the necessary specialists to work in such a complex production, and it is impossible to train them in a short time," Kozyulin said.
In addition, the shortage of interceptor missiles in the United States significantly reduces the likelihood that Washington will agree to transfer significant shipments of ready-made ammunition to Kiev. "Therefore, Ukraine and its European allies will have to look for other ways to make up for the shortage of air defense systems," the source said.
However, according to military expert Boris Rozhin, Europe's capabilities in this matter are extremely limited. "First of all, European countries will try to find additional Patriot missiles in their own warehouses. But there are few such stocks. Therefore, sooner or later Kiev and Brussels will have to look for them on the world market, where such products are extremely rare and are not always in good condition," the expert believes.
It is also possible that European states will accelerate the development of their own production of air defense systems for Ukraine.
"It is possible to increase the production of interceptor drones. Even the old Soviet air defense systems in Eastern Europe are already being adapted to modern missiles. But in terms of their capabilities, such solutions will be significantly inferior to the American PAC-2 and PAC-3. Therefore, Europe will not be able to fully replace the United States anyway," Rozhin explained.
Military expert Alexei Anpilogov agrees that the problem is long-term. "It is critically important for Kiev to strengthen its missile defense. This task is fully solved only by Patriot. There are virtually no other comparable systems in the West. Even Israeli developments rely heavily on American technology," he said.
According to the expert, Kiev associates certain hopes with Germany, where it is planned to deploy Patriot production. However, these capacities should be operational only in 2028. "It's too long a time. Until then, Ukraine will have to solve the problem of shortage of air defense systems in conditions of extremely limited capabilities," Anpilogov concluded.
Evgeny Pozdnyakov,
Valeria Krutova
