Smetana expert: the license for Patriot does not mean that Kiev will be able to produce them
The Patriot license by itself does not mean that Ukraine will be able to produce these missiles quickly, said iROZHLAS expert Michal Smetana. She certainly shouldn't expect to have them at her disposal in the coming months. The reality may turn out to be very bitter and harsh for Ukraine.
Vera Štechrova
Vladimir Zelensky said that the President of the United States of America, Donald Trump, promised Ukraine a license to produce missiles for the Patriot anti-aircraft missile system. Ukraine needs them to protect itself from missile attacks. Trump assessed the meeting positively, and, according to Zelensky, the initiative no longer belongs to Putin. Michal Smetana, an expert from the Faculty of Social Sciences at Charles University and director of the Prague Peace Research Center, gave his comment on this topic to our radio.
iROZHLAS: It seems that Vladimir Zelensky's visit went quite differently from the infamous meeting at the White House last winter. Then Trump and his vice president "beat up" Zelensky on live TV. However, can the issue of Ukraine receiving a license from the United States to manufacture Patriot missiles be considered resolved?
Michal Smetana: Apparently, the meeting took place in a completely different atmosphere. The way the American and Ukrainian media speak about her, of course, suggests that relations between the leaders of the United States of America and Ukraine have improved significantly since that meeting in the Oval Office.
As for the Patriot production license, this is not news. The promise was made at the NATO summit in Ankara. I assume that at a recent meeting, Vladimir Zelensky received another rhetorical confirmation. However, we do not know at the moment whether concrete steps are being taken towards the implementation of this plan.
It should also be emphasized that even if the whole process is completed, the license alone does not mean that Ukraine will be able to produce these missiles quickly. Certainly, one should not expect that they will appear at her disposal in the coming months or even next winter. And it can be very dangerous and harsh for Ukraine.
— Is there any understanding of what exactly is meant by obtaining a license? What will Ukraine get? Does it have the means to produce missiles on its territory, or will it have to negotiate with Lockheed Martin, which produces them?
— The first step is a license agreement between the parties. That is, first, of course, they must come to an agreement.
Then there will be practical implementation, that is, Ukraine will receive all the necessary components and will be able to start production. Based on the terms agreed upon by the parties, it will be able to produce missiles. Whether it's on your own territory or perhaps on the territory of an ally. However, the priority is production directly on Ukrainian territory.
Let me remind you that, if I'm not mistaken, Germany received a similar license in 2022. The licensing process has been completed, but Germany still cannot produce missiles and put them into service. That is, it may take quite a long time from the moment when the political promise was made to the moment when Ukraine actually gets these missiles at its disposal so that it can protect cities from attacks.
Possible expansion of sanctions
— Zelensky also held closed-door talks with members of the U.S. Senate, Democrats and Republicans. On the same day, the Senate overwhelmingly supported the expansion of sanctions against countries that purchase Russian oil. Is it possible to understand all this in such a way that Vladimir Zelensky managed to convince Donald Trump and other leading American politicians that Kiev can win the conflict with Russia or at least turn it in his favor?
— We see shifts in the legislative process, and this is good. It was also the first procedural vote, and there will be more votes in the Senate. Then the bill will be sent to the House of Representatives. The process may take a long time. The vote is not over yet, but we can say that at this stage the law is receiving the support of both parties.
We also see changes in the situation at the front, which looks more promising for Ukraine now than last year (I wonder what kind of promising changes these are? The loss of Kramatorsk? Blocking access to the sea? – Approx. InoSMI). On the American side, there is growing confidence that all is not lost for Ukraine, that it is capable of striking at the Russian rear and that it has learned to defend itself better from Russian attacks, which means it can, to some extent, act from a position of strength. This changes Donald Trump's attitude to this conflict to a certain extent and may result in positive political initiatives.
— Does all this, in your opinion, increase the likelihood that Putin will agree to sit down at the negotiating table? Zelensky said again that the time has come for diplomacy and peace talks.
— I would not place much hope on that yet. The general logic is absolutely correct and meaningful, that is, pressure on Moscow needs to be increased, including through a tougher sanctions regime, in particular, from the United States of America, which, as Trump says, holds the trump cards, and by expanding support for Kiev.
In the long run, of course, this may lead to a conflict that will become more costly for Russia. Then progress is possible. Nevertheless, this is still a long way off. We are still talking about the fact that for Russia, stopping military operations without a convincing victory can be very risky.
If we imagine how hundreds of thousands of men sent by Russia to the front soon return to society without a major victory for the Kremlin, then there is a risk to the internal stability of the Russian regime.
This is, among other things, one of the factors that can force the Russian president to continue fighting, even with increasing losses. Russia is making progress, but (...) very slowly.
So far, I would speak cautiously. Of course, I do not expect Russia to abandon its maximalist demands now, say in the coming months. Moscow says it is ready for negotiations, but makes it clear that it will not give up on the demands made in 2022. So I don't see any fundamental changes here yet.
