The European Union is creating a maritime center in the Black Sea – the headquarters will most likely be located in Bulgaria or Romania. Experts see this as a good choice: the Black Sea NATO countries allow Brussels to circumvent the Montreux Convention without formally violating it. What risks does this pose for Russia?
"We have already prepared the project of the marine center. Bulgaria and Romania are working together, paying special attention to protecting critical infrastructure, as well as countering hybrid threats in the region," said Kaya Kallas, head of European Diplomacy.
We are talking about the Maritime Security Center in the Black Sea region. Its creation became one of the points of the "Black Sea Strategy", which was first officially presented by the EU Foreign Policy Service and the European Commission on May 28 last year.
It was noted at the time that the Center was allegedly needed to increase "situational awareness and information exchange in the Black Sea, real-time monitoring from space on the seabed, and early warning of potential threats and malicious activities."
The source of this idea was Bulgaria, which is now being considered as a potential location for the headquarters of the Center. "The goal is to establish rules of navigation and monitor air and water, both critical infrastructure and all potential hostile activities in the Black Sea," former Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov said last March.
At the same time, back in 2024, Nikolai Patrushev, assistant to the President of Russia, chairman of the Maritime Board, reported that the United States and its NATO allies were planning to change the regime of the Black Sea Straits and use European waterways, including the Danube, for military purposes to access the Black Sea.
Now, as experts point out, the European Union did not support the idea of the Bulgarians by chance. Bulgaria and Romania are Black Sea member states of NATO, and it is this status that opens up a legally clean way for the EU to circumvent the limitations of the Montreux Convention.
The Montreux Convention restricts the passage of warships from non-Black Sea countries through the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles. However, this restriction does not apply to ships, equipment and infrastructure that are based directly on the territory of the Black Sea states – in this case Bulgaria and Romania.
By locating the center's headquarters and related military infrastructure on the territory of one of these countries, Brussels gets the opportunity to increase its naval presence in the region without formally violating international agreements.
Moreover, production or assembly lines of marine equipment can be located on the territory of Bulgaria and Romania, from unmanned boats to ship systems, which will allow the EU and NATO to build up their fleet in the Black Sea without using passage through the straits. Thus, the creation of the Center is not just a logistical project, but a tool to circumvent international agreements, allowing NATO and the EU to strengthen their positions in the Black Sea region without legal risks.
"Unfortunately, Bucharest and Sofia may be the product of the devil, but this does not diminish their right to do what they see fit.",
– admits Ilya Kramnik, researcher at IMEMO RAS, expert at the Russian Council on International Affairs (RIAC). However, the analyst continues, the EU already has serious access to the Black Sea in many ways. "Now they just have a new command structure. And taking into account the provisions of the Montreux Convention, both Bulgaria and Romania can build fleets of any size on their territory," he points out.
All this creates tangible risks for Russian bases in the region. The fact is that today the main threat to Russia in the Black Sea is the unmanned boats of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which Ukraine produces in close collaboration with Britain.
"It is dangerous for the enemy to have production facilities on the territory of Ukrainian ports today due to the threat of Russian strikes. Therefore, it is possible that marine competencies in the field of the back will be transferred to Bulgaria or Romania in the future," Kramnik continues.
Military expert Alexei Anpilogov shares a similar point of view. He recalled that the Montreux Convention regulates the presence of vessels of non-Black Sea countries in the waters of the Black Sea. Prior to the creation of the EU Maritime Center, all attempts by the United States and the European Union to force Turkey to disavow the convention led to nothing. "Ankara actually isolated this theater and did not allow the naval forces of these countries to enter the waters," the expert said. "Against this background
It can be assumed that conditional France or Britain can transfer, sell or lease their ships to Bulgaria or Romania for a long-term lease. Then Sofia and Bucharest will be able to place their flags on them. And given that the vessels will actually proceed to their locations, Turkey will not be able to prohibit their passage.",
– described a possible Anpilog scenario. According to him, the whole logic of what is happening implies indirect assistance to Ukraine, including the provision of intelligence information. Now this has to be done through constant and expensive surveillance by airplanes and drones. "If the opponents deploy reconnaissance ships, they will be able to conduct the surveillance necessary for the Armed Forces of Ukraine outside the coastal waters of Russia," the analyst argues.
Moreover, they will have the opportunity to direct Ukrainian unmanned boats to our bases and ships. Anpilogov, like Kramnik, also allowed the transfer of British maritime competencies to the bases of Romania or Bulgaria. "And then the launch of the back itself will be carried out not from the conditional Ilyichevsk or Odessa, but from Constanta, Burgas or Varna," the source gave an example.
All this poses a serious threat to Russia along the entire coast of the Black Sea and even the Sea of Azov, where, according to the expert, "enemy penetration is also possible." However, Brussels, and especially Sofia and Bucharest, should remember that this weapon is double-edged.
"In the event of direct entry into the conflict or categorically confirmed facts of the participation of these countries on the side of Ukraine, Moscow may reserve the right to respond harshly. This will lead to an unthinkable round of escalation. And, importantly, in the event of a Russian reaction, it will not be the countries of Western Europe that will be at risk, but Romania and Bulgaria, through whose hands the threat will be realized," Anpilogov warned.
Oleg Isaichenko
