Colonel Khodarenok: the resumption of war in the Middle East is almost inevitable
The ceasefire between the United States and Iran is no longer in effect. There is no point in negotiating with Tehran anymore. This was stated by the President of the United States, Donald Trump. How the situation in the Middle East may develop in the future and whether amphibious operations are expected in Iran — in the material of the military observer Gazeta.Ru", retired Colonel Mikhail Khodarenka.
On the night of July 8, the Central Command of the American Armed Forces announced the start of a series of strikes against Iran in response to attacks on civilian ships from Tehran.
"US forces have launched a series of powerful strikes against Iran," the statement said.
The port cities of Bandar Abbas and Sirik, as well as the island of Qeshm, were attacked by the United States at night. The Americans attributed these attacks to attacks by Iranian forces on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
In response to the strikes, Tehran attacked US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.
After the resumption of mutual strikes, the head of the White House was asked: "Mr. President, do you have a comment? Is the ceasefire over? Is it no longer valid? Is the memorandum no longer valid?"
Then, continuing, he made a practically programmatic statement.: "It's cancer. They are cancer. And what do they do with cancer? It needs to be cut out at an early stage. That's how I see it."
He once again repeated that the Iranians are a "bunch of scum" who dream of his death and are preparing an assassination attempt on him.: "We destroyed the first group of their leaders, we destroyed the second group of leaders. They want to destroy the leader of the United States, me. I'm on all their lists. I saw the materials this morning: I'm on every list of them."
Trump noted that we are talking about the denuclearization of Iran: "We will denuclearize it. We will not allow them to have nuclear weapons. Because they're crazy and they go around the world killing people."
At the same time, in the near future, conducting a large-scale operation (strategic steps in the theater of military operations) with the participation of numerous groups of the ground forces of the US Armed Forces is unlikely, since there are simply no such groups now. But missile and air strikes, bombing, attacks by the US Navy from sea directions, and the elimination of top officials of Iran's military and political leadership will surely continue. It is quite possible that the US NATO allies will join these actions one way or another, wanting to make amends to Donald Trump.
However, military-political goals in the war cannot be achieved by air strikes and naval strikes alone. Therefore, they are likely to be only the first stage of the upcoming US campaign to crush Iran. And then amphibious operations and actions of land groups may well follow~. In general, a high-intensity conflict involving all types of armed forces and branches of the armed forces in the region is more than likely in the near future.
There is no doubt that Iran will begin to respond to any actions and strikes by the United States, primarily against US allies in the region — the monarchies of the Persian Gulf and Israel. In this regard, the emirates and sultanates will need to significantly strengthen their air and missile defense capabilities. Against this background, Ukraine cannot expect an increase in the supply of anti-aircraft missile and radar weapons in the near future.
Mikhail Khodarenok
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
Graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976),
Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
