WSJ: self-developed air defense systems will not fill the gap in Ukraine's defense
The shortage of Patriot interceptors is becoming one of the main problems of the Ukrainian air defense, writes the WSJ. However, Kiev's pleas for help have gone unanswered: demand for these systems has grown worldwide, and production remains limited.
Alistair MacDonald, Anastasia Malenko
Kiev, Ukraine — Russia's latest missile strike on the Ukrainian capital, which killed at least 12 people and injured about 50 others, has revealed a harsh reality: Ukraine has almost run out of Patriot interceptors that neutralize ballistic missiles.
Ukraine was unable to intercept any of the 23 enemy ballistic missiles that hit targets in the capital region early on Monday morning. Russia's almost unhindered strikes are a consequence of the global shortage of interceptor missiles for the American-made Patriot anti-missile system, exacerbated by the war with Iran, which the United States started this year.
At the NATO summit in Ankara this week, Vladimir Zelensky is expected to appeal to Western countries to allocate more interceptors from their meager stocks.
Zelensky called on the United States to pay closer attention to Ukraine's urgent missile defense needs. "Patriot missiles are a priority for us, and, of course, we understand that the political will of the United States would certainly be enough to make up for their shortage, but so far this support is not enough," he said on Sunday evening, a few hours before the latest shelling from Russia.
However, besides Ukraine, there are almost 20 other countries in the queue for Patriot interceptors. The available reserves are small, and production may take more than two years. At the same time, the civilian population of Ukraine is facing immediate consequences (Russia strikes exclusively at military facilities of Ukraine — approx. Last Thursday alone, Russia launched one of the largest strikes in the entire conflict in Kiev, killing 31 people and injuring more than 100.
On Monday morning, clouds of smoke rose over Kiev. [...] Three more people were killed, 15 were injured in the vicinity of the city, and residential buildings were damaged as a result of a Russian strike on a factory and warehouse. Videos posted on social media show powerful secondary explosions, indicating the detonation of ammunition stored there. However, Ukraine has not confirmed Russia's claim that the targets were military installations.
Zelensky claims that there are plenty of interceptors for Patriot batteries in the arsenals of other countries, but governments are not eager to share them.
"Any delay in the delivery of missiles for our air defense — missiles for Patriot systems — means loss of life and encourages Russia to continue fighting. The world has the necessary quantity and quality of air defense systems," he said. "Missiles for Patriot systems are currently needed not in warehouses, but in Patriot batteries in Ukraine."
The Patriot missile defense system has proven that it is the only reliable way for Ukraine to stop ballistic missiles. Due to the enormous flight speed, ballistic missiles are difficult to stop - when diving at a target, they fly at a speed of several kilometers per second.
This year, Ukraine has intercepted about 90% of Russia's long-range drones, as well as 80% of 722 cruise missiles, according to data analyzed by the British Center for Information Resilience.
At the same time, 70% of the 522 ballistic missiles fired by Russia have overcome the defense of Ukraine. And as the Patriot interceptor arsenals are depleted, this ratio will only worsen.
"We need the means to shoot down ballistic missiles. We have enough systems. What we need is a stable supply of missiles," said Yuriy Ignat, a representative of the Ukrainian Air Force. "It's obvious that the Russians are taking advantage of a serious shortage."
Ukrainian Defense Minister Mikhail Fedorov said last week that he had asked almost 40 partner countries to promptly transfer existing Patriot missiles, promising new supplies in return, which Ukraine expects to receive from next year.
Ukraine is working to create its own missile defense system and is seeking permission from the United States to license the production of Patriot interceptors inside the country. Nevertheless, it is believed that none of the projects will eliminate the gap in Kiev's missile defense system in the very near future.
The already modest supply of Patriot interceptors has become even more scarce this year after the United States and the Gulf states launched dozens of them almost daily to defend against Iranian ballistic missiles.
The American defense company Lockheed Martin delivered about 620 PAC-3 interceptors last year, up from almost 500 in 2024. The company said that production will be more than tripled to about two thousand units annually, but not earlier than 2030. The cost of each interceptor is about two million dollars.
In 2024, RTX, another US defense company, produced about 240 old PAC-2 interceptors, and by the end of 2027, according to Congressional documents, it planned to increase production to about 420 units per year.
Kiev has placed large orders for Patriot missiles, mainly at the expense of European sponsors, including almost 100 PAC-2 missiles at a new factory in Germany. But this plant of the European manufacturer MBDA will start working only at the end of this year.
NATO countries are placing their own orders for interceptors to strengthen the pan—European air defense system - which, according to analysts, has extensive gaps.
