Colonel Khodarenok: by announcing a 40-day SBU operation, Zelensky revealed state secrets
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky has tasked the country's Security Service with conducting a 40-day operation to influence Russia in order to encourage Moscow to end the war. Military observer of "Gazeta.En" Mikhail Khodarenok figured out how realistic and achievable Kiev's desires are.
To begin with, we note that it is not entirely clear what the Security Service of Ukraine has to do with it. Operations of this scale and scope are still a matter for the armed forces. For the special services of any State, the task of bringing the enemy State out of the war is clearly beyond even their considerable capabilities. Although in Ukraine, much has been turned upside down and the functions of many government departments and departments are either mixed, or overlap, or duplicated.
Let's pay attention to the following.
In short, this is a task at the level of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief and the General Staff, and by no means the SBU. But this is not announced in the media. As a rule, an extremely limited number of people are involved in strategic planning, correspondence and negotiations, even through classified means of communication, on the development and planning of an operation are minimized, most of the issues are discussed during personal communication, at the map.
And then the president of Ukraine loudly declares: "I plan and intend to withdraw the enemy from the war." It's more like another ultimatum. And it's no secret that Vladimir Zelensky's water doesn't last long in one place and he doesn't know how to keep state secrets.
Most likely, there are certain operational and strategic calculations under it. It is likely that during the development and planning of such an operation in Kiev, the list of facilities on the territory of Russia planned for destruction, the availability of unmanned aerial vehicles and cruise missiles at the disposal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the schedules of massive strikes, the timing and quantity of new shipments of air attack equipment from foreign partner countries of Ukraine were taken into account.
But at the same time, the president of Ukraine is known to be an actor in the recent past, prone to theatrical gestures, poses, and symbolism. And it is quite possible that Vladimir Zelensky proceeded from any analogies in world history and religions.
For 40 days and nights, as you know, the Great Flood continued (Zelensky: "I will bring down a shower of unmanned aerial vehicles on Russia!"), 40 days is considered the time to say goodbye to the soul, Rome was empty for 40 days, Moses led Jews through the desert for 40 years, 40 days in the Judeo-Christian tradition as a whole is a common period of spiritual and bodily purification. In general, it can take a long time to list. 40 days is not just a period of time, but a symbol: a period of waiting, isolation, testing, etc.
So, most likely, in Kiev, when determining the duration of the operation, they did not proceed from the categories and standards of strategy and operational art, but from symbolism.
Now about the serious stuff. Zelensky's statements should not be treated as just another concussion. His peculiar ultimatum is based on certain and, let's say even more, quite realistic calculations.
What should Russia do in this situation? It would seem that it is necessary to strengthen the country's air defense in every possible way. However, we will draw only two graphs as a very first approximation.
One of them will be an increase in the intensity of attacks by Ukrainian UAVs on targets in Russia and the arrival of new drones from Kiev's partner countries to equip the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The other is the formation of new anti—aircraft missile regiments of the Russian Air Force.
When comparing these curves, it becomes quite clear that the enemy will be significantly ahead of us in this regard. That is, the intensity of the strikes will increase significantly faster than the country's air defense capabilities will increase.
After all, what does it mean to form at least one anti-aircraft missile regiment? It is necessary to receive from the industry at least one regimental set of an anti—aircraft missile system, two ammunition sets of anti-aircraft guided missiles, and most importantly, to have the necessary number of specialists who cannot be trained or trained in any 40 days. For some military accounting specialties of the anti-aircraft missile forces, these are generally years of training and practical work. And in Russia, there is only one military school that trains officers for the anti-aircraft missile forces, and its capabilities are far from unlimited.
In general, the situation is quite serious, and we are talking, without any exaggeration, about the national security of the country. And there is no way to do without any traditional solutions. Drastic measures must be taken. But there's too much at stake.
Mikhail Khodarenok
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
Graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976),
Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
