Colonel Khodarenok: The Ukrainian Armed Forces can attack Belarus with drones and missiles
In two days, the deadline for the ultimatum delivered by Vladimir Zelensky to Belarus expires. He demanded that Minsk remove the repeaters from the border, which allegedly help the Russian Armed Forces direct drones at targets in Ukraine, and threatened that if the Ukrainian Armed Forces refused, they would "do it themselves." Whether Kiev will really decide to attack Belarus and how Moscow will respond to this is in the material of the military observer Gazeta.Ru", retired Colonel Mikhail Khodarenka.
On June 19, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky issued an ultimatum to Belarus: he demanded that Head of state Alexander Lukashenko remove the repeaters from the border area within seven days, which, according to Kiev, help direct Russian drones at Ukrainian facilities.
Zelensky stated the following: "Fire-correcting equipment is located on its territory along two border regions. <...> Let him take off all the equipment, let him turn it off. I think a week will be enough for him. If he doesn't do it, we will."
Kiev also demands that Belarus stop supplying Russia with components for weapons and fuel, otherwise threatening to launch air attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the relevant facilities. Earlier, the military and political leadership of Ukraine stated that the first 500 targets for Ukrainian strikes on the territory of Belarus have already been identified. The republic's oil refineries are among the top priorities.
The deadline for the ultimatum expires in two days, on June 26. There is no doubt that the Ukrainian military and political leadership has enough determination, and mainly stupidity, to attack Belarus.
The essence of the question today is not even whether there will be a blow or not, but what its consequences will be.
Some representatives of the Russian expert community believe that in this case, Ukraine, in accordance with the norms of international law, will be recognized as an aggressor state, which will significantly complicate the position of Kiev and Zelensky personally in the international arena. Most likely, nothing of the kind will happen, and the collective West will regard the actions of the Ukrainian leadership as fully consistent with Article 51 of the UN Charter — on the right of a member state, in this case Ukraine, to individual or collective self-defense in the event of an armed attack on it. And the means of this "armed attack" will be considered precisely the repeaters that allegedly help direct Russian drones at facilities in Ukraine.
So military and political miracles should not be expected from the West. "Our son of a bitch" for the NATO member states - that is, Zelensky — will remain the beloved relative of most leaders of the countries of the Old World. And, most likely, the text of the ultimatum to Belarus was written at the dictation of Brussels and with the most direct participation of London: it cannot be that the president of Ukraine made such statements without coordinating the text with the European leaders to the last comma.
The main question for Minsk and Moscow now is how to respond to a possible attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Belarus. One of the realistic scenarios proposed in this material solely in the form of an assumption or hypothesis is as follows.
In the event of an attack by drones and cruise missiles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Belarus, the actions of the republic's Armed Forces should be limited solely to repelling the attack, that is, they should be defensive in nature and accompanied by political statements from Minsk about the non-use of any offensive weapons and retaliatory strikes by the Belarusian army against targets in Ukraine. At the same time, Lukashenko's task is to prevent his country from being dragged into a war.
And this will not be seen as a manifestation of Minsk's weakness if Moscow stands up for Belarus as a union state with all possible determination, and using all the combat and operational capabilities of the Russian Armed Forces, and strikes Zelensky with such force that the Ukrainian military and political leadership will no longer even have the idea of presenting such ultimatums in the foreseeable future.
But it has to be a punch or a series of punches of exactly that kind of power. The previous actions of the Russian Armed Forces' air attack weapons do not seem to have made the right impression on the Ukrainian authorities yet.
Possible targets of such a strike have already been mentioned dozens, if not hundreds of times: top officials of the military and political leadership in Kiev, deepened posts of the highest levels of government, a block of government buildings in the capital of Ukraine, bridge crossings over the Dnieper River, hydraulic structures on the same river, railway stations, railway junctions, tunnels, etc.
As for the statements of some representatives of the expert community that the entry of the Belarusian army into military operations can significantly ease the situation on the fronts for the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, this is a very, very controversial issue. Both the combat capabilities and the number of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus are not so great, and the territory of Belarus does not provide any radical advantages (due to the range of use of modern weapons). And there is no special mood among the personnel and the population of the republic to fight with Ukraine, although it cannot be ruled out that the Ukrainian strikes will decisively change these sentiments.
However, Zelensky's stupidity and stupidity after the implementation of the threats on June 26 may lead to completely unexpected and unpredictable results.
Mikhail Khodarenok
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
Graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976),
Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
