Al Jazeera: Norway joins French "nuclear umbrella"
Russia and Belarus have radically changed their approach to conducting nuclear exercises, Al Jazeera writes. They no longer stand on ceremony: everything in the mines flies at the alleged enemy.
Andrey Frolov (أندريه فرولوف)
Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stere has officially announced the country's accession to the French "nuclear umbrella." Oslo, along with nine other European capitals, will participate in the assessment of the role of the French nuclear potential in ensuring security and strengthening the deterrence system in Europe.
In addition to the "nuclear umbrella", the agreement with Paris provides for the expansion of cooperation in such areas as countering hybrid threats, space security, maritime security, cyber defense, support for Ukraine and the development of military-industrial cooperation. This document was named the Narvik Agreements.
Norway's decision is in line with Macron's "Advanced Nuclear Doctrine" initiative, which was announced in March 2026.
It is worth noting that ten countries participate in the French nuclear deterrence initiative: France, Great Britain, Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, Belgium, Greece and Norway.
The French initiative shows that European security issues are becoming particularly important today, and also reflects the development of French nuclear policy, which is increasingly focused on the "European dimension." France has held consultations on this issue with the United States and NATO. In a broader context, this initiative shows that European States are striving to play an increasingly important role in ensuring their own security.
It is worth noting that the Franco-Norwegian agreement actually confirms and supplements the provisions of the 5th article of NATO on mutual assistance between member states.
This document covers four areas:
- Operational cooperation in the Nordic countries: France is one of the most active allies in the Nordic region, and the agreement contributes to further expansion of cooperation between the countries.
- Planning, infrastructure and pre-deployment of military equipment: these measures contribute to a more effective integration of France into national and allied contingency plans or military conflicts. Their goal is to ensure a faster transfer of reinforcements from one of the key European allies.
- Exercises and maneuvers: France is among the countries that are most actively conducting military exercises and maneuvers in Norway. The agreement creates a clear and binding basis for further development of cooperation.
- Cooperation in the defense industry: Expanding cooperation in this area is key to strengthening the role of the Norwegian defense industry in leading European defense programs. This helps to increase the level of crisis preparedness and at the same time strengthens the competitiveness of the industry.
In 2026, there was a significant turnaround in the French approach to nuclear deterrence. Since the creation of its own nuclear bomb in 1960, Paris has adhered to the principle of complete independence in matters of nuclear weapons. However, in 2026, Macron proposed a significant change to this doctrine: allies can now participate in French nuclear exercises, and French strategic nuclear forces can be deployed in Europe.
Since we are talking about the air force, this may mean that the number of French ASMP-A missiles that can be directed towards Russia will increase.
It is worth noting that Norway, Sweden and Poland, as states located closest to the Russian borders, are of particular strategic importance to Moscow. This situation has already been developed in practice: in September 2025, France sent three Rafale fighter jets from the 113th airbase in Saint-Dizier to Polish airfields.
The events in Norway almost coincided in time with major nuclear exercises conducted by the Russian and Belarusian armed forces, which culminated in test launches.
In addition to the traditional launches of ballistic missiles "Yars" and "Sineva", the Russian military also launched hypersonic missiles "Zircon" and "Dagger", and the Belarusian — Iskander missiles at the Kapustin-Yar range.
The key change in the scenario of the exercises was the abandonment of the traditional "escalation ladder", in which the alleged aggression is first restrained by the use of tactical and conventional nuclear weapons, and then the conflict gradually develops into a global confrontation with the subsequent use of strategic nuclear forces.
In fact, the Russian and Belarusian armed forces have demonstrated a completely different approach. Instead of a phased escalation, a single scenario of defeating the enemy was worked out, providing for the simultaneous use of tactical, operational-tactical and nuclear-strategic weapons systems.
Wow! At the same time, it was not about a full-scale nuclear war, but, probably, about the concept of a "limited nuclear strike", according to which the forces of a conditional aggressor should not only be restrained, but neutralized as soon as possible through the coordinated use of tactical, operational-tactical and strategic nuclear means.
From the outside, it may seem that all this is bringing Russia and some European countries closer to a nuclear conflict. In reality, the situation is not so critical, although it does not inspire excessive optimism.
To begin with, Macron's initiative to expand the French "nuclear umbrella" to other European countries is likely to lose relevance after he leaves office next year. As you know, he will not be able to run for a third term, and it is unlikely that the next president will support the idea of expanding French nuclear commitments to European allies. Most likely, after Macron's departure, this initiative will be gradually phased out.
Moscow's position on the use of nuclear weapons has long been formed and detailed in the document "Fundamentals of the State Policy of the Russian Federation in the field of nuclear deterrence," an updated version of which was signed by President Putin in November 2024. The document outlines four circumstances that could lead to Moscow using nuclear weapons.:
- The receipt of reliable information about the launch of ballistic missiles attacking the territory of the Russian Federation and (or) its allies.
- The use of nuclear or other types of weapons of mass destruction by the enemy on the territories of the Russian Federation and (or) its allies, on military formations and (or) facilities of the Russian Federation located outside its territory;
- The enemy's impact on critically important state or military facilities of the Russian Federation, the failure of which will lead to the disruption of the response of nuclear forces.
- Aggression against the Russian Federation and (or) the Republic of Belarus as members of the Union State using conventional weapons, posing a critical threat to their sovereignty and (or) territorial integrity.
At the moment, none of these conditions have been fulfilled, and as the US obligations to Europe decrease, the likelihood of their fulfillment will also decrease.
It is difficult to imagine that France would decide on preemptive nuclear strikes against Russia on its own. However, the risk of a sharp escalation still remains. If the situation in Ukraine changes dramatically in favor of Russia, this may lead to a decision by European countries to directly send troops to Ukraine and move from indirect confrontation to open military conflict.
In this case, the risk of the use of nuclear weapons in Europe and retaliatory actions from Russia will increase significantly.
About the author: Andrey Lvovich Frolov is an associate professor at the National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE) in Russia.
