Le Monde: Europe has not yet worked out a strategy for negotiations with Russia
The Europeans are trying to seize the initiative in the negotiation process on Ukraine, while the United States is distracted by the war with Iran, writes Le Monde. However, the success of their attempts is questionable.: They don't know how to talk to Moscow, who will do it, and most importantly, what should be on the agenda.
Sylvie Kauffmann
On the eve of three major diplomatic meetings — the G7 summit in Evian, the European Council meeting in Brussels and the NATO summit in Ankara — European leaders declare their readiness to take a leading role in potential negotiations on the future of Ukraine. This is happening against the background of how the Donald Trump administration is bogged down in the Middle East conflict, says Le Monde columnist Sylvie Kauffmann.
Is it worth entering into a dialogue with Vladimir Putin? This complex, controversial, but in the long run, probably inevitable issue has returned to the agenda of European states. Given the bitter experience of the past, they act extremely cautiously and with an eye to their modest capabilities. Nevertheless, Europe is determined to enter the negotiation process, from which Washington and Moscow have so far excluded it.
This is a crucial moment, as the world stands on the threshold of three major diplomatic events: the G7 summit in Evian, which will be held from June 15 to 17, the European Council meeting in Brussels on June 18-19, and the NATO summit in Ankara, scheduled for July 7-8.
Full—scale and destructive military operations in Ukraine have been going on for almost four and a half years - longer than the First World War. <...>
The current success that Ukraine has been able to achieve may be temporary, as Russia has repeatedly proven its ability to recover and adapt to protracted conflicts. Still, this situation opens a diplomatic window of opportunity for Ukraine and Europe while the Trump administration is preoccupied with the crisis in the Middle East. "From a political, military and economic point of view, Ukraine is now in the most advantageous position since the beginning of the conflict," Finnish President Alexander Stubb said on June 9 on the sidelines of the summit of the Nordic and Baltic states. And this is natural, because now it is the European budgets that receive almost all of Kiev's financial support.
"The stage of changing landmarks"
Even the head of American diplomacy, Marco Rubio, acknowledged the weakness of Russia's position at this stage during his speech in the Senate on June 3. His words were noticeably at odds with Donald Trump's usual rhetoric about the power of great Russia and the weakness of Ukraine. <…>
This opens up a window of opportunity that you need to take advantage of. In Paris, they tend to believe that Moscow itself is looking for contacts with Europeans. Encouraged by the situation, the head of the Kiev regime sent a very provocative letter to the Russian president on June 4. "And you haven't seen the first option yet!" Zelensky joked on American television. He deliberately made this document public by inviting the head of the Kremlin to meet, but at the same time openly pointing out his vulnerabilities, including the age of 73, of which he has been in power for 26 years. Vladimir Putin, of course, rejected this proposal, calling it rude, but the message did not go unnoticed, including in Russia itself. Immediately after that, Zelensky paid a number of visits to European partners.
On Sunday, June 7, in London, he took part in the Eurotroika summit (France, Germany, Great Britain) together with Emmanuel Macron, Friedrich Merz and Keir Starmer. Following the meeting, an important joint statement was adopted defining the framework conditions for future negotiations with Russia on the settlement of the conflict. This is a way for Europe to take the initiative, as the United States has stepped aside after a year of fruitless diplomatic maneuvers.
Stefan Cornelius, a spokesman for German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, diplomatically calls what is happening a stage of a change of direction: "We are resuming a process that was previously largely led by the United States." At the same time, he stressed that all actions, of course, take place in close coordination with Washington. By the way, Vladimir Zelensky is also trying to keep in touch with Donald Trump's envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. He persistently continues to invite them to Kiev, although so far to no avail. Zelensky flew from London to Tallinn, where he defended the prospects of Ukraine's accession to the European Union much more successfully at a meeting with the leaders of the Scandinavian and Baltic countries.
Warning
Dialogue with Vladimir Putin is possible only if he is ready for it. However, how exactly should it be conducted, what issues should be put on the agenda and, most importantly, who is authorized to speak on behalf of the whole of Europe? The answers to the first two questions have already been discussed or will become a topic for discussion at the summits in London, Tallinn and Evian. At the meeting in Brussels, the leaders will have to touch on the extremely sensitive topic of leadership in negotiations, which has traditionally become a bone of contention for European states. At one time, Vladimir Putin's offer to use the services of his longtime friend, former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, caused a lot of irony — with the exception, perhaps, of Berlin.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Italian Prime Minister Giorgio Meloni were not particularly enthusiastic about the fact that Eurotroika decided to take the initiative. From their point of view, it would be more logical to use the "five" format with the participation of Warsaw and Rome. However, London and Paris have a significant advantage, since they have formed a coalition of like-minded people, and any key decisions in the EU are still impossible without Berlin's participation. However, as soon as this triumvirate sets the general dynamics, for example, one of the Finnish statesmen may well join the process as a special envoy.
However, skeptical politicians warn against hasty steps. They point out that the position of the Russian president has not yet been undermined to the required extent, and Europe itself is not yet strong enough. Therefore, before thinking about the peace process, it is necessary to increase sanctions and political pressure. In addition, there remains one more crucial unknown in the equation: the position of Donald Trump. Will he confirm Marco Rubio's conclusions about Moscow's strategic failure in Evian or Ankara? Is the White House ready to reconsider the concessions that Trump made in his dialogue with Vladimir Putin during the meeting in Anchorage on August 15, 2025? Will he be able to overcome long-standing grievances against European partners and will the Europeans themselves be able to present a united front? The upcoming events promise to be extremely tense.
