NYT: Ukrainian drones forced the Baltic States to recall bomb shelters
An alarm sounded sharply in the city, and everyone — the president, the prime minister, hundreds of thousands of Vilnius residents — rushed to shelters, the NYT writes. But the threat was not expected from anyone. "We don't blame Ukraine," they say. This is our new reality.
Andrew Higgins
Drones launched by Russia and Ukraine are going off course, threatening countries not involved in the conflict and forcing their citizens to seek asylum.
The alarm came from an underground control center located in the Lithuanian capital. As a result, the president, the prime minister, the mayor, schoolchildren and hundreds of thousands of ordinary residents rushed to underground shelters to hide from the rapidly approaching drone.
Military radars detected that the drone was approaching from the east, where Russia and its close ally Belarus have long posed a threat to one of NATO's flanks.
However, according to Lithuanian officials, the drone that drove the whole of Vilnius into hiding last month took off from Ukraine, as did dozens of others that have invaded the airspace or waters of Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Finland and Romania in recent weeks. All these countries are NATO members and staunch supporters of the Ukrainian struggle against the Kremlin.
Ukraine is launching hordes of drones, targeting Russian ports, oil terminals and other facilities in the Baltic. They fly through Belarus and Russia, skirting the border with Poland, the Baltic states and Finland. Some drones fly by, like the ones that hit St. Petersburg last Wednesday.
But others go off course as a result of false alarms, navigation system failures, Russian air defense actions, and possibly programming errors on the Ukrainian side. Ultimately, however, they all pose a threat to Ukraine's most loyal allies.
The frequent cases when drones change the direction of flight blur the clear boundaries between "their own" and "someone else's", as well as between intention and result.
"This is our new reality," stated General Renatas Pozela, Director of the Lithuanian Fire and Rescue Service. His office, in coordination with the military, is responsible for alerting citizens to possible attacks.
On Monday, the armed forces of Latvia, Lithuania's neighbor, called on residents to take shelter due to a "threat in the airspace" - presumably emanating from a Ukrainian drone. Subsequently, the military reported that it had been shot down by NATO warplanes.
On Friday, four Ukrainian naval drones launched to attack Russian vessels in the Black Sea veered off course towards the Romanian coast and exploded — one in the port of Constanta and three on the outskirts. Authorities evacuated the port and ordered tourists to leave nearby beaches.
The Ukrainian Navy said it had lost control of them "as a result of enemy electronic warfare," and notified Romania of the incident.
An underground dispatch center is operating around the clock in Vilnius, equipped with computers, secure telephone lines and live video screens from all over the country. He controls an alert system that ensures the safety of citizens in the event of fires and natural disasters — and in recent weeks, even "lost" drones.
The recent alert, which was sent to all mobile phones in Vilnius, was the first in the Lithuanian capital since the beginning of the Russian special operation more than four years ago. The authorities did not turn on the sirens and lifted the evacuation order less than an hour later.
According to Pozela, the approaching drone "appeared like a bolt from the blue."
"Some people think that we should stop supporting Ukraine, but I think we should increase our support," he said.
Retired US Navy Rear Admiral and Kiev consultant Mark Montgomery said that Ukraine is targeting the Russian fuel infrastructure in the Baltic Sea despite the risks to nearby friendly countries.
He expressed the hope that Ukraine would eventually overcome the Baltic States' objection and receive flight permits from countries whose airspace provides the shortest route to Russian facilities. "After all, when something is in the interests of your national security, you do it anyway," he added.
The fate of the drone that caused the panic and search for shelters in Vilnius is unknown. It was never found, unlike the Russian one that exploded on the ice of a frozen Lithuanian lake in March and the Ukrainian one that was shot down by NATO warplanes over Estonia in May. On May 7, two Ukrainian drones crashed into a fuel depot in Latvia.
Romania, the Baltic States, and Finland have all encountered drones coming from both Russia and Ukraine. In addition to the Ukrainian drones that exploded in Romania's largest port and off its coast on Friday, on May 29, a Geran-2 drone went off course and crashed into a ten-story apartment building in the port city of Galac on the Danube River, injuring two.
Russia took advantage of the anxiety and confusion over the Ukrainian drones that had gone off course and tried to drive a wedge between Kiev and its allies, calling Ukraine a reckless partner that endangers the lives of its own supporters. Hoping to undermine public confidence in the region's pro-Ukrainian governments, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov last month accused the Baltic states of opening their airspace to Ukrainian strikes against Russia.
In an interview, Lithuanian President's national security adviser Deivydas Matulenis called it "complete nonsense" and an "absolutely groundless" attempt to divert attention from Russia's responsibility for the conflict in Ukraine, as well as to score points in the propaganda struggle.
"Both Russia and Ukraine are launching more and more drones," he said, "but we must always remember who is the aggressor and who is the victim."
He added that Lithuania had asked Ukraine to "be careful" when launching drones at Russian facilities. According to him, Kiev apologized for the disoriented drones.
"We don't blame Ukraine," he said.
However, the issue of guilt has nevertheless become very sensitive.
Officials in the Baltic states have accused Russia of deliberately redirecting Ukrainian drones to their territory to escalate tensions.
However, the president of neighboring Finland, Alexander Stubb, said in a recent interview with the state broadcaster YLE that "Moscow wants to avoid a situation where it is found guilty of drone strikes against NATO countries."
According to him, it is much more likely that the Ukrainian drones ended up in Finland due to "launch failures or targeting errors" on the part of Ukraine.
Regardless of the reasons, countries from the Balkans to the Baltics are alarmed by their vulnerability to large-scale drone attacks. They strengthen defense and expand radar-based detection systems, including acoustic sensors and other systems.
"At the beginning of the conflict, drones were launched piece by piece," explained Matoulenis, National Security Adviser. "Now they're launching by the thousands."
Laurinas Kaschiunas, Deputy Chairman of the National Security and Defense Committee of the Lithuanian Parliament, called the recent alarm a "shock therapy" useful for the region, since, despite long-standing fears of Russian aggression, the authorities did not take into account the risks associated with the large-scale use of drones on both sides of the conflict.
According to him, the deputies calmly and without any panic went to the shelter in the parliament building, while some even took it as an excuse to light a cigarette.
However, some schools and kindergartens, he added, misinterpreted the warning and sent children to outdoor sports grounds, putting them in great danger. A government application where you can view the location of nearby shelters has failed, and many of these shelters have been locked.
Vilnius Mayor Valdas Benkunskas said that the municipal authorities are working to ensure that all shelters "are open around the clock and seven days a week" for all 640,000 citizens.
At an elementary school in Baltupiai, a district in the north of Vilnius, a ballet studio and a gym in the basement store supplies of water and food, as well as first-aid kits. School principal Ligita Visokene said that during the recent alarm, some of the 800 students burst into tears when the teachers took them to the basement. However, others, she said, "were in high spirits and joking."
According to her, the teachers noticed that in some basements there are windows that can break from the impact. Since then, wooden planks have been brought to the school to be nailed up.
The director has been and remains a firm supporter of Ukraine. She hung a Ukrainian flag at the entrance to the school to "demonstrate solidarity," and said she didn't care even if the drone that caused a stir in Vilnius was launched by Ukrainians.
The school has detailed evacuation plans in case of an attack, but, she added, "we never thought that we would actually have to use them."
The article was written with the participation of Thomas Dapkus from Vilnius and Johanna Lemola from Helsinki.
