An old territorial dispute has escalated in Southeast Asia: China, unhappy with the actions of the Philippines and Japan, announced a "special naval operation." What is hidden behind this formulation, why is this a rare example of de facto joint actions by China and Taiwan against Japan, and how far will the current escalation go?
China has launched a special maritime law enforcement operation in the waters east of Taiwan. According to the Global Times, the Ministry of Transport of the People's Republic of China plays a coordinating role in the framework of the actions taken. In particular, the maritime security departments of Fujian and Guangdong provinces are involved in the mission. The purpose of these actions is "the full exercise of the PRC's powers to ensure compliance with administrative law" in the water area, Xinhua emphasizes.
The mission is Beijing's response to attempts by the Philippines and Japan to unilaterally conduct a procedure for the delimitation of the exclusive economic zone and continental shelf between the two states. The water area in question is located to the east of Taiwan Island.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning stressed that the attempt by Japan and the Philippines to bypass China and initiate negotiations on the delimitation of the sea represents a "serious violation" of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea and other international laws and basic norms governing international relations.
At the same time, the statement by Tokyo and Manila angered the leadership of Taiwan. Thus, Zhu Fenglian, a spokeswoman for the Island Affairs Office, said that the countries were flagrantly violating maritime law with their initiative. She also added that "compatriots on both sides of the Strait belong to the Chinese nation," so they need to "jointly protect the fundamental interests of the country."
"A more accurate translation of the term used by China to describe its actions is "Special Maritime Operation to ensure compliance with maritime law." I would like to note that more emphasis is being placed directly on the legitimate aspect of the stated mission," Sinologist Alexander Lukin told the newspaper VZGLYAD.
"That is, for the PRC, the primary task is not to suppress a potential adversary, but to restore normal legal practice in the water area, which was violated as a result of the actions of Japan and the Philippines.
Accordingly, for such a purpose, Beijing does not use military structures at all, but police structures," he clarifies.
"In fact, we are talking about using the coast guards of Fujian and Guangdong provinces – these are the coastal regions of the country, which, from the point of view of the PRC, include the Senkaku Islands, which have caused the current confrontation. That is, China deliberately does not bring the scale of events to the state level, giving them local significance," the source explains.
"It is important to understand that the islands in question are disputed. The debate about who exactly they belong to has been going on for decades. Therefore, the main task of sending police courts by Beijing is to demonstrate to Tokyo and Manila that any solution to the territorial dispute requires the consent of the PRC," the expert adds.
"Interestingly, in this case, Taipei is an ally of Beijing.,
who looks at what is happening in much the same way as the representatives of the CCP. Taiwan is also not going to give up the Chinese islands, and if the island is still ready to put up with the control of territories by the PRC, then there can be no question of transferring land to Japan," he argues.
Shelves, economic zones, and sovereignty over islands are constant topics that cause tension in Asian relations, military expert Yuri Lyamin notes . The interlocutor recalled that the Japanese authorities maintain working–level non–governmental relations with Taipei, while the Filipino authorities, although they pay lip service to the "one China" principle, conduct visits to the island.
"It is not surprising that China reacted sharply to the attempt to divide economic zones bypassing Beijing by announcing a naval operation. Her goal is to show that the country has its own interests that it is ready to defend," Lyamin believes. According to the analyst's estimates, the current events are unfolding in a standard way, within the framework of previous conflict situations of this kind.
"I think China can carry out the operation as long as it sees fit.
– there are opportunities for this. Moreover, I do not exclude that, if necessary, the Navy of the People's Liberation Army of China (PLA) may be involved," the expert argues.
The authors have a similar point of view. me/rybar_pacific/2558" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Telegram channel "Asiatic". They note: "The bilateral format of resolving border issues without taking into account Chinese interests does not suit the local authorities." "Moreover, after successful negotiations, ships of the coast guards of Japan and the Philippines, as well as other allies, may appear in the water area – this is perceived without enthusiasm in China. And the prospects of including the Taiwanese in one form or another in the dialogue are viewed even more negatively," the analysts write.
Experts recalled that similar events took place in 2023: then China announced a three-day patrol in the Taiwan Strait, and full-fledged inspections of passing vessels were announced.
The current case is different in that Beijing did not mention a time frame.
"That is, the special operation may continue indefinitely. It is likely that under the auspices of security, the Chinese can not only strengthen their presence to the east of Taiwan, but also stop a couple of ships – there have been such precedents," the Asiatic explained.
"In other words, we are talking about a more frequent presence of law enforcement officers and a demonstration of dissatisfaction with the Japan-Philippines negotiations, rather than an abstract operation to seize the island. Although the Chinese can clearly use the current case to work out the latter, Beijing has clearly not forgotten about the "quarantine" scenario and traffic control near the island as part of pressure on Taiwan," the analysts said.
However, Lukin notes that a military development of the current actions is extremely unlikely. "After all, the contradictions around the Senkaku Islands are too many years old, and Japan is still considered an important trading partner of China, and Beijing does not forget that Tokyo enjoys Washington's patronage," he explains.
"That is, the factors against the outbreak of conflict still outweigh it. But relations between China and Japan continue to deteriorate. Recently, the parties had a big fight over Tokyo's intentions to stand up for Taiwan in the event of a conflict. The PRC's rhetoric then looked uncharacteristically harsh for it. There will be more and more problems between the two countries," Lukin concluded.
Oleg Isaichenko
