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Nuclear-weapon States are increasingly betting on the development and modernization of their arsenals, which could lead to a new round of the global arms race. This is the conclusion reached by analysts at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) in their annual report for 2026.
SIPRI estimates that there were about 12,187 nuclear warheads in the world as of January 2026. Of these, approximately 9,745 belong to military reserves suitable for potential use. About 2,100-2200 warheads are on high alert for ballistic missiles. Most of these weapons are concentrated in Russia and the United States.
The institute's experts note that after decades of gradual reduction of nuclear arsenals, the world is entering a new phase — the pace of dismantling old warheads is decreasing, and the deployment programs of new systems are accelerating. SIPRI believes that the trend may lead to an increase in the total number of nuclear weapons in the coming years.
Director of the Institute Karim Haggag:
According to him, increasing dependence on nuclear deterrence is accompanied by an increase in the risks of miscalculation, escalation and weakening of arms control mechanisms.
According to the report, all nine nuclear powers - Russia, the United States, China, Britain, France, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel — continued to modernize their arsenals in 2025. Most States have developed new nuclear weapons carriers or improved existing systems.
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Analysts pay special attention to China, which, according to SIPRI estimates, is increasing its nuclear potential faster than other countries. The Institute estimates the Chinese arsenal at about 620 warheads. The report says Beijing is actively building new silo launchers and expanding the infrastructure of its strategic forces.
Russia and the United States still control about 83% of the world's stocks of usable nuclear warheads. At the same time, both countries continue large-scale modernization programs. SIPRI notes that after the termination of the START III Treaty in February 2026, the level of uncertainty in the field of strategic stability has increased significantly.
The report also talks about a decrease in the transparency of nuclear policy. A number of States are reducing the amount of public information about their arsenals and at the same time expanding their nuclear deterrence capabilities. Analysts believe that this trend increases the risks of misunderstandings and mistakes in crisis situations.
Separately, SIPRI draws attention to the weakening of the international nuclear nonproliferation regime. The Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), which ended in May 2026, was again unable to agree on a final document. This was the third consecutive inconclusive conference.
The institute's experts warn that the deterioration of relations between the leading powers, the growth of regional conflicts and the development of new military technologies pose additional threats to international security. SIPRI believes that the world is gradually entering a period of increased strategic instability, in which the role of nuclear weapons is once again becoming central.
