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"Blows to the rear." Why are the Ukrainian Armed Forces changing their strategy and what can Russia expect?

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Image source: Serhii Korovainyi/Reuters

Colonel Khodarenok: The Ukrainian Armed Forces want to change the situation at the front by attacking UAVs in the rear

The armed forces of Ukraine are changing their strategy, moving away from the "war of attrition" against Russia. This was stated by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Alexander Syrsky. Military observer of "Gazeta.Ru", retired Colonel Mikhail Khodarenok dealt with the theses of the speech of the Ukrainian commander-in-chief.

The "Asymmetric strategy"

"In conditions of limited resources, in order to effectively confront a much larger enemy, we are trying to move from a "war of attrition" to an asymmetric strategy",

— said the Ukrainian military commander.

According to him, the main goal of the transition to the new strategy is to stop the advance of Russian troops. Syrsky stressed that the Ukrainian Armed Forces would "effectively counterattack and strike at the rear of the Russians, including in the depths of their territory."

First of all, these statements are clearly not from the position of General Syrsky. The head of State/Supreme Commander-in-Chief, who directs the armed struggle, gives instructions on conducting military operations of a similar content.


Alexander Syrsky.
Source: Press Service Of The President Of Ukraine via AP

And once again, such reports are surprising in the part that the war in Ukraine continues to be led through the media and social networks, publicly announcing their plans. If any doctrinal attitudes of the parties to the conflict change during the armed confrontation, then it is not necessary to talk about it in the media.

Further. As you know, to name it correctly is to understand it correctly. Therefore, let us first turn to the theory of the question.

The term "war of attrition" does not come from the course of strategy and operational art. This definition is rather of a political science nature. And the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine does not use such vocabulary with his own hands. Syrsky said that "the main goal of the transition to a new strategy is to stop the advance of Russian troops." And again, some kind of "soft-boiled boots". If the Ukrainian general had said "the main goals of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are to disrupt and repel the enemy's offensive, as well as to defeat his strike groups," everything would have been clear.

No, I made up some kind of "stop moving".

It seems that General Syrsky graduated from both the Academy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Academy of Defense of Ukraine (the latter even with a gold medal), and the confusion of the Ukrainian military commander in terminology and concepts is more than significant.

And first, let's start with the strategy. This science is far from being gloves to change from season to season. Let's turn to the classical definition of strategy.

Military strategy is a system of scientific knowledge about the nature of armed struggle in modern wars, about the methods and forms of warfare in general and military operations of a strategic scale, as well as the field of practical activity of the political leadership and the supreme military command to prepare the country and the armed forces for war and guide them in conducting military operations in order to defeat the enemy.

Alexander Svechin, a prominent Russian strategist, defined strategy as a systematic reflection on military history. Field Marshal Helmut Moltke Sr. sought to solve great strategic problems not in weighty volumes with many chapters and countless paragraphs, but, according to Alfred von Schlieffen, limited his explanation of the essence of war to a few words: "Strategy is the ability to find a way out of a situation."

It would be more correct for General Syrsky to talk about making changes to the system of strategic actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine or certain adjustments to the forms of use of troops (forces). However, it is not necessary to talk about this on social networks and the media.

"Betting on massive UAV strikes"

And let's return to Syrsky's words again: "in conditions of limited resources, in order to effectively confront a much larger enemy, we are trying to move from a "war of attrition" to an asymmetric strategy."

There is no such thing as an asymmetric strategy. But there is a basic law of war in strategy. And it sounds like this: the dependence of the course and outcome of the war on the ratio of the combined military power of the warring parties, as well as the degree to which the state implements combat, military-economic, moral-political, scientific-technical and other potentials that collectively constitute military power.

That is, in fact, Syrsky admitted that Ukraine is significantly inferior to Russia in military power, and if the situation is not reversed in some way (according to the general, with the help of an "asymmetric" strategy), the war will be lost.

But these are all games of words and terms. But the picture on the battlefields is starting to change. And it was designated earlier than Syrsky by the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Mikhail Fedorov. According to him, due to the massive use of UAVs of all types and modifications, the Ukrainian Armed Forces intend to isolate the battlefield, exhaust the enemy and strike key targets and infrastructure facilities deep in the Russian rear, which help the armed forces to increase their military activity.

And it seems that Ukraine intends to seriously seize the initiative in this regard. For these purposes, it is planned to multiply the volume of production of UAVs of all types.

That is, the Commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is far from being a strategist and founder here, his statements are purely secondary after the conceptual statements of the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Mikhail Fedorov. And it would be wrong to say that the doctrinal statements of the new head of the military department of Ukraine are a shock to the air.

Kiev seriously intends to change the situation on the battlefields in its favor, betting on massive UAV strikes against Russian Armed Forces targets both in the frontline and deep inside our country.

Mikhail Khodarenok

The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.


Biography of the author:

Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.

He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976).

Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).

Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).

Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).

Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).

Officer of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).

Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).

Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).

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The material is placed by the copyright holder in the public domain
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