Newsweek: any scenario for the development of the US war in Iran includes a cease-fire
The US war in Iran has five possible scenarios, analysts at Newsweek write. Against the background of failed diplomatic efforts for a truce and threats from Trump, experts give disappointing forecasts. However, all of them provide for a cease-fire.
After several weeks of nervous pause in the fighting between the United States and Iran, which gave diplomacy a chance, the truce finally appeared on the verge of collapse.
President Donald Trump told Axios that "the clock is ticking" and warned Tehran that if it does not come up with a more acceptable deal proposal, it will be dealt a much more powerful blow.
Trump is scheduled to meet with his national security team on Tuesday to discuss military options, according to U.S. officials.
Will Iran take a position that Trump finds acceptable? Or will Tehran conclude that time is on its side and decide to fight to the end?
There are five possible scenarios for the further development of events in the US war against Iran.
1. Trump is bombing Iran again and seeking a smaller deal than he wants.
Military options have returned to the discussion agenda because the American leadership claims that Iran has refused to make significant concessions on the nuclear issue.
The White House may resume strikes against Iran in order to force it back to the negotiating table, achieve concessions on the nuclear program and give Trump the opportunity to declare that coercive diplomacy is yielding results.
This development is likely because Trump's public demands are simple: Iran must change its offer for the better, otherwise the strikes will become more powerful.
The danger for Trump is that "more powerful strikes" will become a test for him, and he will be forced to repeat them over and over again, achieving results, because otherwise all his threats will lose their force and credibility.
Iran's position remains maximalist, despite threats against it: war reparations, lifting of sanctions, return of confiscated assets and funds, sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.
By resuming bombing, the United States may achieve limited success on the issue of access, inspections and navigation, but not Iran's abandonment of its nuclear program.
Tehran can offer a deal to end the war and pave the way for a more comprehensive agreement. This will allow both sides to declare some kind of victory over the enemy and stop economic losses. But more difficult work on the nuclear issue will have to be done later.
2. Iran agrees to compromise: economic pain is stronger than political humiliation
The most optimistic and stabilizing scenario is that Iran will retreat even before the resumption of the war.
This will be called mutual de-escalation, and Pakistan and Qatar, acting as mediators, will help Iran agree to some formulations on the nuclear issue and on shipping that will satisfy Washington. The United States, in turn, will begin to gradually reduce pressure.
Iran has strong incentives to bargain, as the standoff has led to the closure of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and increased energy prices. Both are hurting the Iranian economy, and Tehran will feel this pain more acutely over time.
Trump also has an incentive to agree to an imperfect deal, because after another impasse, oil prices rose sharply, and at the beginning of Sunday trading, Brent was worth more than $ 111 per barrel. This leads to further price increases for Americans, and all this is happening ahead of the crucial midterm elections.
The resumption of the war will increase the economic and political costs for Trump and distract his administration's attention from other priorities such as Cuba, Russia—Ukraine and China.
In such a scenario, formulations will be needed that give Iran the opportunity to refute talk of surrender, and Trump the opportunity to announce the results. The biggest obstacle is Trump's own ultimatum, as Iranian state television called the American proposal a demand for surrender.
3. The war resumes, turning into a manageable stalemate
The most likely bad outcome is not an instant regional war, but a cycle of repeated American strikes, Iranian responses, shipping disruptions, and new mediation efforts that will allow both sides to claim control of the situation.
The truce has already been shaken by American attempts to open the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has publicly downplayed the significance of this conflict, calling it a "skirmish" and saying that the United States is in full control of everything. Since the beginning of the war, Iran has mostly blocked shipping in the strait.
The United States will maintain overwhelming military superiority, but Iran does not need battlefield parity to inflict pain. If he maintains the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz or makes his work unreliable, such a stalemate will turn into an economic contest.
Iran is facing declining exports, increasing pressure on oil storage facilities, and painful plant closures. And the United States faces further rising energy prices, pressure from allies, and new questions about the costs of this conflict, which has no end in sight.
The stalemate will not allow the parties to declare the achievement of the announced goals, even if they manage to present it to the internal audience as a success for some time. Trump will be able to say that he continues to put pressure on Iran, and Tehran will be able to claim that it has retained its nuclear leverage and refute Washington's claims of a clean victory.
But the longer the confrontation persists, the more the political problem will shift from the plane of military determination to the category of economic endurance.
The people of both countries will experience incessant financial pain from the war, which neither side needs. And this will have a negative impact on the voting results in the United States and on the streets in Iran.
The United States' NATO allies and its Iranian partner China will surely increase pressure on Washington and Tehran to end the conflict, the side effects of which are creating a lot of economic problems around the world.
4. The States of the Persian Gulf openly engage in hostilities
The most dangerous escalation of the conflict will occur if the Gulf countries do not want to put up with Iranian strikes and openly engage in hostilities on the side of the United States in order to bring the war to an end and force Tehran to conclude a deal.
In this case, one of the main fears that existed even before the conflict will become reality: a full-scale regional war with all the attendant human losses and economic costs.
Information has emerged about direct strikes against Iran being carried out by the UAE and Saudi Arabia, without publicly acknowledging this. These are retaliatory attacks carried out after Iran launched a series of strikes against targets in these countries using missiles and drones.
The risks increased after the drone strike on the Baraka nuclear power plant. The UAE said three drones had crossed the country's western border. Two were intercepted, and one caused an electric generator to catch fire outside the inner perimeter of the nuclear power plant.
Emirati Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed told the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, that "there were no consequences for radiation safety."
But the political effect still matters. The strike near the only nuclear power plant in the Arab world gives the Gulf countries more grounds for retaliatory actions, for joint defense and for direct support of American operations in the event of a resumption of large-scale hostilities.
If the US allies from the Persian Gulf launch open military operations, Trump will have fewer opportunities for theatrical balancing on the brink of military confrontation, as the management of the alliance will turn into the leadership of military operations. However, the participation of the Gulf states will also allow him to talk about this campaign as a joint military operation, rather than as a unilateral escalation.
5. The truce remains, the pressure is quiet and gradually causing damage
The least spectacular scenario can have the most serious consequences. The truce remains in name, but the blockade, the confrontation in the strait, sanctions pressure, the risks of using drones and the legal disputes behind all this continue.
This scenario may seem to Trump the most advantageous, because he will retain leverage, and he will not need to immediately make a decision to strike.
In this case, the clockwork mechanism of the economic time bomb planted under Iran will start working, because its oil storage facilities will overflow, Tehran will be forced to stop oil production at its fields, which is disastrous for the country, and its export revenues will begin to deplete. In such an environment, he will not be able to pay salaries to civil servants and provide services.
All this pressure will increase without noticeable use of force, and Tehran will find itself in the grip of increasing pressure without a formal return to hostilities. But analysts cannot agree on when this pressure will be crucial.
In such a scenario, the restrictive lines of the constitution will also be blurred, as a federal law called the War Powers Resolution requires the cessation of unauthorized hostilities after 60 days unless Congress authorizes the use of force, declares war, or extends that deadline.
A truce that will shift the public's attention but not ease the pressure may be Trump's most reliable policy toward Iran.
War as a cease-fire
It would be a mistake to consider these scenarios as five equivalent options. The first four are dramatic developments, and the fifth is a fully operational course that is already taking shape.
Trump may bomb, Iran may compromise, the strait may burst into flames, and the Gulf states may come close to war. But each of these paths goes through a cease-fire, which performs more political than diplomatic work.
If the next sentence doesn't contain something that ends the war, opens up shipping, and curbs Iran's nuclear program, the United States may gradually come to the strangest of all outcomes: a war that doesn't stop because everyone keeps calling it a truce.
