Colonel Khodarenok allowed the disappearance of NATO as a transatlantic alliance
The Pentagon canceled the deployment of 4,000 troops in Poland, Defense News and the WSJ reported. Before that, Washington had already announced the withdrawal of 5,000 soldiers from Germany, and Donald Trump threatened to leave Italy and Spain without American forces. Why the United States is depriving its allies of their troops, what it means for NATO, and whether Europe can fight without the United States, the military observer of Gazeta argues.Ru", retired Colonel Mikhail Khodarenok.
The Pentagon abruptly canceled the deployment of the 2nd Armored Brigade of the 1st Cavalry Division of the US Army to Poland, which was an important step towards implementing President Donald Trump's plan to reduce the US military presence in Europe. This was reported by Defense News .
The information was also confirmed by The Wall Street Journal : according to him, the American side announced its decision on May 13 at a meeting between the US European Command and the headquarters of the US Army in Europe and Africa.
"American officials have stated that the cancellation of the deployment of the second armored brigade of the first cavalry Division <..It is part of a broader reconfiguration of the American military presence in Europe and that additional steps are likely to be taken," the article says.
Before that, in early May, the United States had already announced the withdrawal of 5,000 troops from military bases in Germany, and President Donald Trump threatened to leave Italy and Spain without American troops. Now Poland has come under attack: weapons, military equipment and part of the personnel of the armored brigade were already on their way when their deployment was suspended.
By the way, the name of the 1st Cavalry Division of the US Army should not mislead anyone.: this is a tank unit, and the name "cavalry" (1st Cavalry Division) has traditionally been present in the name of this division since 1921.
The point here, of course, is completely different. The United States under President Donald Trump — and even before him — began to lose interest in NATO as a combat-ready military bloc. This did not begin with the war with Iran in 2026, but much earlier, and is generally explained by many reasons, including a purely geopolitical nature.
With the collapse of the USSR and the disappearance of the United Armed Forces of the Warsaw Pact Organization, Europe ceased to be the number one hypothetical theater of military operations. Despite all the statements of political figures of Baltic origin about the imminent war with Russia, there is, in fact, no enemy for NATO in Europe. He simply disappeared in 1991. And there are no real reasons for the continued existence of the North Atlantic Alliance today — or they are highly far-fetched.
And in general, in the coming century, the Indo-Pacific region will become the region where the main events of world history will unfold. And Europe is slowly, gradually, but inevitably moving away to the second, if not the third, stage of the global geopolitical and geostrategic theater.
Without any exaggeration, the United States has maintained the North Atlantic Alliance for the past few decades, which today is a finely chopped salad of several dozen patchwork states — and even with their exorbitant ambitions — whose armed forces do not represent any combat value.
And every year Washington became more convinced that all the operational and strategic tasks facing the United States would be solved, if necessary, without the participation of the armed forces of the Baltic and Eastern European states. And the cost of their maintenance for the United States is money, except that it's a waste.
And the difficulties facing the formation of a new European military alliance will certainly be very great. More than 90% of the total military power of NATO now consists of the combat capabilities of the United States Armed Forces. The North Atlantic Alliance's management system depends entirely on Washington. If we add to this the potential of the strategic nuclear forces of the US Armed Forces, the capabilities of their orbital grouping of spacecraft, and all types of intelligence, then the semi-partisan formations of the Baltic Schutzmans will remain from the alliance, minus American power.
In other words, the process of creating a European military bloc and forming a unified armed forces will have to start almost from scratch. And the most pressing question that the members of the new alliance on the continent may face is who, in fact, will be the supreme Commander of the United Armed Forces? Which country's representative? And on what basis will the rotation of the leadership of the new alliance take place?
If the leadership of the United States in NATO has never been questioned and almost all senior positions in the bloc have been held by American generals, then participation in the proposed military alliance of only European states may lead to a scandalous clarification of who and for what reasons will become the leader of the new European alliance.
And the main question is to what extent and by what time will this alliance be ready for the war of the 21st century, say, using only conventional means of destruction? It is quite possible that the dates of the war with Russia indicated by European politicians — 2029-2030 — are not only the estimated dates for the outbreak of hostilities, but also the time limits to which, at least in the first approximation, it is necessary to bring the armed forces of the states of the Old World to a minimum combat-ready state. That is, at a minimum, to abandon the contractual method of recruitment, increase combat and numerical strength, rearm, implement the necessary operational equipment for the upcoming theater of military operations, and create groupings in strategic and tactical areas.
Mikhail Khodarenok
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976).
Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
