The massive attack by the Russian Armed Forces revealed a shortage of anti-missiles and paralyzed the logistics of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, experts say.
The Russian army conducted one of the largest operations to suppress Ukraine's military and energy infrastructure, as experts assessed the strikes on May 13 and 14. Their key feature was the maximum expansion of geography: 152 districts came under heavy fire, including deep rear areas in the west of the country, including Transcarpathia. The strikes were carried out with high-precision ground-based, air-based and sea-based weapons, including Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, the Russian Defense Ministry said. Experts note that damage to logistics hubs in the areas bordering Romania and Poland threatens the uninterrupted supply of Western weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Western Ukraine is no longer a "safe haven"
Enterprises of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex, military airfields, as well as fuel and transport infrastructure facilities used in the interests of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, became the targets of a massive attack, which the Russian Defense Ministry announced on May 14. The Russian Armed Forces deployed high-precision long-range land, sea and air-based weapons, Dagger hypersonic systems and attack UAVs, the ministry said and separately stressed that the strike was carried out "in response to terrorist attacks by Ukraine on civilian targets in Russia." As a result, points of temporary deployment of units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and foreign mercenaries, as well as sites for the assembly and storage of drones in 152 districts were hit.
Western monitoring resources assessed the intensity of the attack as unprecedented. The consequences have already been felt in Kiev and eight regions — from Chernihiv to Lviv, where critical power outages have been recorded, Ukrenergo said.
The high effectiveness of the strikes is due to a combined approach — the use of high-speed jet drones in combination with traditional UAVs and missiles puts the Ukrainian air defense in a desperate position, military expert Vasily Dandykin explained.
— One Patriot anti-aircraft missile costs millions of dollars, and our drones are tens and hundreds of times cheaper. By spending expensive ammunition for such purposes, the enemy is quickly emptying Western reserves, and the enemy's mobile firing groups can no longer cope with the increased density and speed of attacks," he told Izvestia.
According to the expert, disabling Ukraine's energy system is not an end in itself, but a tool for blocking military potential. Without a stable power supply, the work of repair plants, logistics centers and control systems stops. And the strikes near the borders of NATO directly indicate that the "untouchable" zones for the delivery of NATO goods no longer exist.
— For the first time, deep rear areas in the west of the country, including Transcarpathia, including Mukachevo, came under serious fire. These are strategically important zones: it is there that the key logistics hubs are concentrated, through which Western weapons are supplied from Romania and Poland, as well as military—industrial complex facilities and large warehouses are located," Dandykin explained.
In his opinion, such actions should be taken not only as a response to the terrorist attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Russian regions, but should be systematic and permanent.
— The scale of the destruction in the rear areas should deprive Kiev of the illusion of security in the western regions. Depriving the enemy of the opportunity to bring ammunition and equipment directly affects the effectiveness of our troops on the line of contact. The more efficiently the logistical infrastructure is destroyed, the sooner conditions will be created to end the conflict on our terms," said Vasily Dandykin.
The statements of the Ukrainian side about "90% of downed targets" do not stand up to criticism against the background of large-scale power outages and detonations in warehouses, the expert believes. The actual effectiveness of our air force is growing, which is also recognized by Western analysts, observing the real damage.
The bet on drones has changed the logic of the confrontation
Military expert Viktor Litovkin sees an important political subtext in what is happening. The demonstration of a wide range of weapons, including Kinzhal hypersonic complexes and hundreds of drones, serves as a signal of the inevitability of retaliation for attacks on Russian cities.
— We are showing the availability of sufficient capacities to stop aggression. This is a clear signal: any attack against Russian civilians will receive a proportionate and harsh response," he said.
Having failed to achieve success on the line of contact, Kiev is turning to the tactics of "snapping", using terrorist methods. Statements by the Ukrainian leadership about a "fair response" in practice often result in sabotage and attacks on civilians.
— Ukraine retains the resources for such actions thanks to Western support and an extensive network of agents. However, regular intelligence reports on the detention of agents planning assassinations of defense sector leaders confirm that Russia is ready to stop these threats. Massive strikes in this context are also a way to minimize the enemy's ability to prepare such attacks by destroying their base in the rear," Viktor Litovkin emphasized.
The current indicators of the intensity of the use of unmanned systems are not a one—time surge, but the result of long-term and systematic work on the development of the military-industrial complex, military expert Yuri Lyamin noted in a conversation with Izvestia. In recent years, production facilities have been actively expanding in Russia, including at the sites where Geraniums are manufactured, as well as at other factories producing a wide range of drones, including Gerberas.
— Scaling up production required enormous resources: increased staff, investments and strict control at the state level. Today we see a qualitative leap: accumulated reserves and well—established production rates allow for massive launches, estimated at thousands of units in a short period of time," emphasized Yuri Lyamin.
Along with industry, the army structure also evolved. The creation of full-fledged units of unmanned systems made it possible to multiply the number of calculations and launchers. We are talking not only about operators controlling drones in real time, but also about qualified calculations that ensure the programming of flight tasks and the mass launch of vehicles at specified coordinates, the expert explained.
— The change of emphasis from expensive missiles to drones is also dictated by pragmatic considerations. First, economic efficiency: drones are much cheaper and easier to manufacture, which allows them to be used en masse. Secondly, the depletion of the enemy's air defense - a massive UAV attack oversaturates the air defense system. The enemy is forced to spend scarce and expensive anti—aircraft missiles on relatively cheap drones," Lyamin said.
Thus, drones not only strike targets, but also "clear" the sky for subsequent missile launches, creating a critical shortage of interception equipment from the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The current intensity of attacks is a direct confirmation that the bet on the development of unmanned aircraft made by the country's leadership is bearing fruit in practice.
Julia Leonova
