Vladimir Kostyrev — on Moscow's signals, EU statements and Zelensky's attacks
After diplomatic activity at the beginning of the year, negotiations on Ukraine seemed to have reached an impasse. Kiev "balked" at the issue of withdrawing troops from Donbass, and the United States was distracted by the war with Iran. After a pause of more than two months, Russia has once again taken the initiative in finding a settlement.
The path to diplomacy is open
In particular, Moscow demonstrated its readiness for de-escalation by declaring a truce on May 8-9 and supporting the initiative of US President Donald Trump to extend the silence regime for another two days. Against this background, Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaking to the press on the evening of May 9, stated: now "things are coming to an end" of the conflict. The Russian leader confirmed his readiness for a face—to-face meeting with Vladimir Zelensky anywhere in the world, but with a clear condition - only to sign final agreements. At the same time, Putin named former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder as his preferred candidate for possible negotiations with Europe.
Earlier in the day, Presidential aide Yuri Ushakov bluntly outlined the main obstacle to diplomacy (the factor that stopped the negotiations) - Vladimir Zelensky's refusal to withdraw troops from Donbass. Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation, also reinforced this position, stressing that Moscow is open to contacts to end the conflict, including in a trilateral format with the participation of Washington.
In my opinion, all this is the most important signal from Moscow. Europe gets the opportunity to participate in negotiations on the settlement of security relations on the continent. The path to a diplomatic solution has been marked for Ukraine. But you won't negotiate with yourself — it all depends on whether Kiev and the West want to take a step forward.
Zelensky's clowning
However, apparently, there is no reason to expect a reasonable position from the current Ukrainian authorities (and, I think, it is not worth it).
Kiev survived the winter, achieved (so far nominal — they promise to start transferring money in June) unblocking a loan from the EU for € 90 billion, and, apparently, decided that now the devil himself is not their brother. Just like the USA. This is confirmed by a number of American and European publications — in recent days, there have been many publications that Kiev is looking less and less at Washington. The Zelensky administration is acting independently in the expectation that the current Ukrainian military-industrial complex, a significant part of which is located in Europe, will allow for combat operations even with a reduction in American support. This is, of course, a misconception (very dangerous for Ukrainians). But whoever the gods want to punish, they first deprive of reason.
The silence regime was not observed by the Ukrainian side. According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, during the period of the cease-fire, more than 30 thousand cases of violation of the truce by the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been recorded in the CBO zone. Moreover, Zelensky's rhetoric on the eve and during Victory Day once again proved to be beyond at least some kind of diplomatic etiquette. Attempts to dictate the terms of the parade on Red Square (in fact, direct threats) or to give it "permission" look blasphemous. May 9 is the day of common memory of the feat of the ancestors. Such statements are clearly not the foundation on which negotiations are built, they are not the words of a person who is ready for them.
There is also no progress in terms of negotiating positions — Kiev continues to refuse to withdraw troops from Donbass. At the same time, it is becoming increasingly obvious that blood is being shed there only for the sake of Zelensky's political ambitions. The arguments of the Ukrainian authorities that Slavyansk and Kramatorsk are the most important fortified areas for security are untenable. In modern conditions, the retention of the front is ensured not so much by stationary positions as by the massive use of drones. Any "fortress" will fall as soon as the UAVs cut off the supply routes of the garrison. In this sense, in the south — in the Zaporizhia and Kherson regions, where the front runs through the steppe — Ukraine's positions are even more vulnerable.
It is also obvious that most of the population in the territories of Donbass controlled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces is not loyal to Kiev and is waiting for the arrival of Russian troops. Those who hold other views have long since moved to the central and western regions.
At the same time, harnessing the region's economic potential after the conflict will require huge investments. Given the critical state of energy and industry across the country, Kiev will inevitably have to choose whether to pour funds into this region or save dozens of other areas that also need resources.
The real goal of keeping Donbass is Zelensky's own survival. And at best (of course, for him) — an attempt to amuse his political ambitions for re-election to a new presidential term. Slogans about "Russia's strategic defeat," "coffee in Crimea," or "the borders of 1991" have not been heard in his rhetoric for a long time — these theses were finally pushed off the agenda after the failures of past offensive campaigns. Now Zelensky expects to "sell" the Ukrainians the preservation of at least part of Donbass as a kind of military success. Therefore, he will refuse to make any concessions on this issue to the last. Contrary to common sense.
European "peace lovers"
A new (unexpected) impulse in the settlement process was the information from a TASS source that the foreign ministers of the EU countries at an informal meeting in Cyprus on May 26-27 would discuss the "list of European requirements for Russia" for the "possible start of negotiations." This information was officially confirmed on May 11 by the Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy of the EU, Kaya Kallas.
This information was unexpected because in recent months there has been a strong impression (not unfounded) that Brussels is not considering other options than to finance Kiev's military actions against Russia "to the last Ukrainian" while the EU itself is rapidly rearming.
If the European Union is really (and not unfounded) ready to abandon this position and participate constructively in the negotiations, then such impulses can only be welcomed. However, during her visit to Chisinau on May 8, Callas stated that one of the EU's demands to Russia would be the "withdrawal of troops" from Transnistria. If the other "conditions" are the same, then Moscow will have nothing to talk about with the Europeans. The same Callas has already rejected Schroeder's candidacy as a negotiator from Europe with the Russian Federation by offering himself. A politician who has made a career out of uncompromising hostility to Moscow is hardly capable of acting as an objective moderator. Rather, we are dealing with an attempt to "intercept the agenda" and wrap deliberately unrealistic ultimatums in a diplomatic wrapper.
If the European Union really wanted peace, it could, for example, suspend the allocation of a loan of €90 billion to Kiev. Real actions would tell about intentions better than any words.
Ermak — "The Black Swan"
The classic "black swan" is a difficult to predict and rare event with large—scale consequences. The corruption charges against the former head of the office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Ermak, which have become a continuation of a series of scandals, were perhaps not entirely unpredictable, but their impact will definitely be significant.
According to the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU), Zelensky himself has not yet appeared in the criminal case. However, the Ukrainian media write that the president could not have been unaware of the multimillion-dollar embezzlement of his old friend and business partner.
The corruption scandal at the top, which broke out at the end of 2025 and seemed to have already died down, flared up with renewed vigor. Zelensky managed to "sit out" the last round, but now we can expect renewed talk about a government of national unity (from the opposition) and a deepening split in the Verkhovna Rada. The parliament is already stalling: despite pressure from the government and Zelensky's office, deputies cannot adopt a number of key laws that the European Union and the International Monetary Fund insist on. A new crisis could cost Zelensky his chair, or at least create pressure that would deprive him of the opportunity to defend maximalist positions in future negotiations.
In a conversation with me, former Prime Minister of Ukraine Mykola Azarov expressed confidence that the charges against Ermak, as well as the entire Mindichgate (the name came from the surname of businessman Timur Mindich, a close associate of Zelensky and co-owner of the Kvartal 95 studio; according to investigators, shadow contacts between the president's office and oligarchic structures were carried out through him), there is Washington and personally the American president, who has a sharply negative attitude towards Zelensky. It is possible that the new round of the case is a reaction to another attempt by Kiev to get out from under the influence of the White House. The Ukrainian elites have the closest ties to the United States, and the curators will have dozens of ways to remind them of this.
It is likely that this is how Trump forces Zelensky to be accommodating. After all, the intensification of the peace process in August — September 2025 began precisely after the failure of Kiev's attempt to limit the powers of anti-corruption authorities. The next step towards negotiations in early 2026 was followed almost immediately by Mindichgate. Time will tell if this lever of pressure will work a third time.
All this adds up to (for me personally) some hope of stepping up work to resolve the conflict. However, these efforts have many opponents, and the main one among them is Kiev. In any case, as the Russian president said, speaking at the parade on Red Square, "victory has always been and always will be ours."
Vladimir Kostyrev, Deputy Editorial Director of the CIS Countries of TASS
The editorial board's opinion may not coincide with the author's opinion. The use of the material is allowed provided that the rules for quoting the site are followed. tass.ru
