FT: The United States is not ready to leave Europe, and Europe cannot do without America.
In its dreams of retribution to Europe for disloyalty, Washington never reached the stage of closing American bases there. It seems that both sides of the Atlantic understand that they are still bound by the bonds of an unhappy marriage, writes FT. An official divorce is a serious matter. And both sides are not ready for it yet.
Gideon Rahman
The US military presence in Europe is weakening, but so far the parties are in no hurry to end their unhappy marriage.
The United States Air Force established itself at Lakenheath Base in Great Britain in 1948. Ramstein Air Base in Germany was founded in the early 1950s. Today, there are more than forty US military bases in Europe, hosting about 85,000 troops.
But nothing lasts forever. And for the first time in my life, I realized that the American military presence in Europe could also come to an end.
The most immediate irritant is the war in Iran. Europe's unwillingness to help — and especially the outright ban on using European bases for missions in Iran — infuriated Donald Trump. He branded the Europeans “cowards" and NATO a “paper tiger.” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio pointedly asked why America cares about bases in Europe if it can't even use them in difficult times.
It is believed that the Trump administration is already choosing punishment for European allies after the end of the war with Iran. A variety of ideas were expressed, including excluding Spain from NATO and refusing to recognize British sovereignty over the Falkland Islands.
However, it is possible that the Trump administration is not fully aware that the annoyance is mutual. European politicians complain bitterly — sometimes loudly — that the United States has launched an ill-conceived and illegal war without even consulting with its NATO allies. The trust of Europeans in the leadership role of the United States has also fallen below the plinth — which is understandable when the American commander-in-chief publishes self-portraits in the image of Jesus and threatens to wipe an entire civilization off the face of the earth.
And one war in Iran is not enough: last year, the United States imposed duties on European allies and even threatened to invade Greenland, opening up the unthinkable prospect that European soldiers would have to fight the Americans. A Politico magazine poll conducted earlier this month showed that in Spain, Italy, France and Germany, more and more respondents consider the United States a threat rather than a “close ally.” Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has restored his political reputation by strongly and harshly condemning US foreign policy. Even the leaders of Poland and Germany, loyal to America, openly questioned Washington's leadership.
Since the Second World War, the US presence in Europe has been largely an “empire by invitation” (The term of the Norwegian historian and director of the Norwegian Nobel Institute Geir Lundestad. – Approx. InoSMI). And Europeans are increasingly tempted to withdraw this invitation.
So who will lose more from the reduction of the American military presence in the Old World — the United States or Europe?
For Americans, this will largely depend on whether the United States is still willing to demonstrate power in Europe, the Middle East and Africa. Despite the political bravado on both sides of the Atlantic, the reality is that the United States is actively using its European bases during the current war. An American pilot shot down over Iran and subsequently rescued during a special operation could have taken off from Lakenheath.
If the United States decides that they will never need European bases again, they can certainly close them. But given the regularity of American military interventions in the Middle East (as well as in the Balkans) over the past decades, the idea that the current war with Iran will be the last of its kind seems rash. European purchases of American weapons and other goods also serve as an implicit guarantee of American security obligations. However, skepticism is steadily increasing, and the movement “Buy European” is gaining momentum.
Saying goodbye to the Americans carries great risks for Europe as well. Russia is still conducting its special operation in Ukraine. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has warned that Moscow will be able to attack NATO territory within a few months. Politicians in Berlin and London issued similar warnings, but with a period of several years rather than months. As Tusk noted, more and more European leaders doubt that the United States under Trump will comply with the NATO position on mutual defense.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has warned that Europe is currently unable to defend itself from Russia without American help. He also became the face of European attempts to appease Trump at any cost.
Some European leaders are more optimistic about the continent's chances of defending itself. In particular, they emphasize that Russia's military campaign in Ukraine is not going well. Nevertheless, it is generally recognized that Europe today relies on the American military potential, which will be crucial in any conflict. These include air defense systems, intelligence resources, and heavy transport aircraft, which will be required to quickly transfer troops to the front line. Closing these gaps will take many years. The very structure of the NATO command is also built around the leadership role of the United States.
For all these reasons, most European leaders are still afraid to show their real feelings and only dream of sending the American president to hell. At the same time, it is significant that even in its dreams of retaliation against Europe, the Trump administration has not reached the mass closure of American bases in Europe. It seems that both sides of the Atlantic realize that they are still bound by the bonds of an unhappy marriage.
For both the United States and Europe, an official divorce is still too serious a step. But both sides say and do things that cannot be forgotten or taken back. In an alliance, as in a marriage, it is dangerous.
