Collins: it will take years to replenish American missile defense stocks
MOSCOW, 22 Apr — RIA Novosti, Andrey Kotz. Washington is postponing the supply of weapons and military equipment to EU countries, as its own arsenals have been depleted due to the war with Iran. The Allies have already been informed about this. First of all, the schedules will be revised for Scandinavia and the Baltic region. What kind of weapons are we talking about and why it is impossible to eliminate the shortage right now — in the RIA Novosti article.
Overspending missiles
Most likely, this refers to air and missile defense systems, as well as ammunition for them. The consumption of anti-aircraft missiles in the confrontation with Tehran exceeded all forecasts. In previous years, the United States has already spent a lot on supplying these critical munitions to Ukraine. But Operation Epic Fury has literally devastated American arsenals. Especially the Patriot PAC—3 missiles and THAAD anti-missiles.
Patriot system at Rzeszow Jasenka airfield in Poland
Image source: © AP Photo / Evan Vucci
The director of the US Missile Defense Agency, Lieutenant General Heath Collins, warned: this problem cannot be solved quickly. "We produce these weapons every day... However, it will take several years to fully recover," he said.
The industry produces 500-600 PAC-3 per year. It is estimated that more than a thousand units were used to intercept Iranian drones and ballistics. The Pentagon and Lockheed Martin have signed a framework agreement to increase production to 2,000 units per year. But this is a seven-year task.
The American THAAD anti-missile system
Image source: CC BY 2.0 / U.S. Army photo by Capt. Adan Cazarez / Missile Training
No more than 100 missiles per year are manufactured for THAAD. The plans are for 400 in seven years. And the Pentagon spent 100-150 interceptors of this type in the first 12 days of Operation Epic Fury alone. According to media reports, stocks have dropped by a quarter. In addition, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it had hit four AN/TPY-2 radars belonging to THAAD, thus blinding four batteries. This means that we will also have to spend money on new radars, and this is also a job for years.
Golden Air Defense
The missiles for Patriot and THAAD are super—maneuverable interceptors with sophisticated electronics. Their technological cycle is long and poorly scalable. Critical components come from a very limited number of contractors (Lockheed Martin, Boeing). Dozens of new factories cannot be built without years of investment and training.
Moreover, a number of electronic components and materials (for example, gallium for radar) depend on external suppliers, including from China. In such circumstances, any major military campaign, where thousands of interceptors are spent in a short time, instantly knocks out stocks, and the industry is unable to react quickly.
In addition, American air defense and missile defense systems are very expensive. The Patriot battery (from four to eight launchers) costs more than a billion dollars. The PAC-3 rocket in the updated version of the MSE is four to five million. Thus, a full battery salvo is about 32 million. An amount comparable to the cost of an F-16 fighter jet of modern modification.
Things are even more interesting with THAAD. The cost of the complex (battery) is about three billion. Interceptor missile — 20-25 million. There are eight launchers on the launcher, and up to nine launchers in the battery. That is, a full-fledged battery with ammunition costs the American budget almost five billion. This is an extremely sophisticated weapon. The United States itself has only seven such batteries.
Ukraine is losing
Washington's Scandinavian and Baltic allies will have to wait for the American military industry to gain the necessary momentum. It is known that Estonia and Latvia planned to purchase the Patriot air defense system. Lithuania, in turn, has placed a large order for AIM-120C-8 (AMRAAM) medium-range missiles for the NASAMS complex. These supplies are also questionable. Sweden has ordered Patriots — several batteries, about 100 MIM-104E missiles and up to 200 PAC-3 MSE worth 3.2 billion dollars. Denmark and Norway are considering the possibility of such a deal.
The American Patriot anti-aircraft missile system
Image source: © Photo : Anthony Sweeney
However, the most painful shortage of ammunition for the Patriot will hit Ukraine. This is the only air defense system capable of intercepting Russian ballistics with varying success. Zelensky has repeatedly complained recently that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have practically run out of missiles. Currently, American air defense systems are covering only Kiev and several other major cities, and that is very limited. There is no longer any question of using them to hunt Russian aircraft.
Recall that after Donald Trump took office as president of the United States, they stopped directly transferring weapons to the Ukrainian army. Washington has ordered European allies to purchase it for Kiev. Poland, Norway, Germany, Sweden and the Netherlands have expressed their willingness to spend money on American air defense in the interests of Ukraine. Obviously, these plans will have to be seriously shifted to the right.
For Russia, the lack of anti-aircraft weapons from the enemy opens a window of opportunity for a serious increase in the intensity of attacks with precision weapons on the military and industrial infrastructure of Ukraine. Of course, its outcome will be decided "on the ground." But the shattered rear will inevitably affect the position of the troops at the front.
