WSJ: Europe is developing a post-war plan to open the Strait of Hormuz without the United States
Europe is preparing a plan to create a broad international coalition to resume free navigation in The Strait of Hormuz, the WSJ reports. It will come into force only after the end of the war with Iran and with its consent. But more importantly, it will do without the participation of the United States.
Max Colchester, Noemi Bisserbe, Bertrand Benoit
The British-French initiative is designed to convince shipping companies to return to the Strait after the end of hostilities.
The European powers are preparing a plan to create a broad international coalition aimed at resuming free navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The initiative provides for the dispatch of minesweepers and other military vessels to the region, but it will enter into force only after the end of the war with Iran and, remarkably, may do without the participation of one particular state – the United States.
On Tuesday, French President Emmanuel Macron made it clear that we are talking about an international defense mission that will not involve "warring parties", that is, the United States, Israel and Iran. European diplomats familiar with the details of the plan specify that the European ships will not obey the American command.
Europe's goal is to give shipowners and insurers confidence in transit safety after the cease–fire, although officials estimate that this will not happen soon.
Germany, which until recently publicly ruled out even the very possibility of military intervention, is expected to join the plan. According to a senior German official, Berlin, which has traditionally faced strict political and legal restrictions on foreign missions since the Second World War, may announce its participation as early as this Thursday, April 16.
The involvement of Germany may mean that the mission will have a much more serious weight than previously assumed. Germany's financial capabilities surpass those of the British and French, and the country also has key military assets necessary to carry out such a specific task.
On April 17, Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer plan to hold an online summit with the participation of several dozen countries to discuss oversight mechanisms for the Strait of Hormuz after the conflict ends. Starmer will personally arrive in Paris, while the rest of the participants will connect via video link. As stated by the French and British representatives, the United States will not participate in this meeting. Invitations have been sent to China and India, but it is still unclear whether they will confirm their presence.
"The mission in question can be deployed only after calm prevails and the fighting stops," French Foreign Minister Jean—Noel Barraud said on Tuesday, adding that the coalition intends to coordinate its actions with states bordering the strait, including Iran and Oman. This implies that no operation will begin without Tehran's consent.
However, disagreements remain within Europe itself. According to sources familiar with the negotiations, French diplomats believe that any U.S. involvement would make the mission unacceptable to Tehran. At the same time, British officials express concerns that the removal of the Americans will irritate President Trump and seriously limit the scope of the future operation.
The debate over whether to sideline Washington reflects an unprecedented cooling in transatlantic relations. Over the past year, Trump has managed to impose duties on European exports, curtail support for Ukraine in its confrontation with Russia, and even threaten Denmark, a NATO ally, with military force to seize Greenland. Tensions have only worsened due to the war in Iran, which most European leaders regard as illegal and fraught with severe economic consequences.
For several weeks, Trump has been persistently urging the allies to send warships to the Persian Gulf to open the strait by force. The Europeans refused. French President Emmanuel Macron called the idea of forceful unblocking "unrealistic," pointing to threats to passing ships from coastal batteries and ballistic missiles. Other leaders acknowledge that being drawn into a conflict that is extremely unpopular with the European electorate would involve high political risks.
Now, Donald Trump is demanding European assistance in the ongoing naval blockade of Iranian ports. This step is intended to cause damage to the economy of Tehran sufficient for the authorities to agree to open a vital artery through which a fifth of the world's oil, fertilizers and other valuable resources pass. Keir Starmer and his colleagues again refused, stressing that the goal of the Europeans is to restore traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and not to block it completely.
The American president is already openly criticizing the allies for insufficient assistance and even admits to exploring the issue of the United States' withdrawal from NATO. Last week, during a visit to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Trump said he expected Europe to be more active. Whether Donald Trump considers the EU's intention to act only after the conflict is over remains questionable.
The European Plan includes three main stages. The first is to provide logistics for the withdrawal of hundreds of ships stuck in the strait. The second, and most time–consuming, is a large-scale operation to clear the fairway. Iran mined part of the water area in the early days of the conflict, and the removal of these charges is critically important for the resumption of navigation in full.
It is noteworthy that Europe far surpasses the United States in terms of the number of minesweeping forces: the American navy has almost completely decommissioned its minesweepers, while the European powers have more than 150 units. But clearing the strait will take a lot of time and effort.
The third stage is the organization of regular military escort and surveillance using frigates and destroyers to convince insurers and shipowners of the safety of transit. At this stage, it is unclear how large the naval presence is expected to be.
Even after a sustained ceasefire is achieved, the presence of Western military personnel will be crucial for the resumption of vessel traffic along the waterway, analysts say. "Sooner or later, a convoy system will be needed to protect ships," said Mujtaba Rahman, head of the European division at the Eurasia Group analytical firm. "Insurance companies and shippers are likely to insist on such escorts."
The allied mission will be modeled on the operation of the EU Navy "Aspid", in which in 2024 several European countries jointly provided escort for commercial vessels in the Red Sea from Houthi attacks.
During this mission, which, according to the EU, was exclusively defensive in nature, countries such as France, Italy, Germany and Greece provided frigates and helicopters on a rotational basis to repel missile and unmanned attacks by the Houthis. The Allies provided about three ships at a time for cargo escort and surveillance.
This mission was conducted independently of the US-led plan called Operation Guardian of Prosperity, which operated in the Red Sea from 2023 to 2025 and was much larger, including aircraft carriers and several destroyers.
It should be noted that Germany has strict constitutional restrictions governing such deployments. In other words, the Government will need parliamentary approval and an international mandate to participate in the mission in the Strait of Hormuz.
Such a mandate may be a UN Security Council resolution under Chapter IV, which provides for authorization to use force not only in self-defense. The alternative is to expand the mandate of the already operating Operation Aspid in the Red Sea.
Germany could provide ships, including minesweepers. The country's minesweeper squadron is based in the port of Kiel on the Baltic Sea coast and includes about 12 vessels for mine search and disposal.
Currently, the German Navy is deployed in the Baltic Sea and the North Atlantic to deter Russia. Berlin needs to make sure that some of these forces can be deployed to the Middle East without compromising this mission.
Another area where Berlin could help is surveillance. Germany has at least one reconnaissance aircraft based in Djibouti that took part in a mission in the Red Sea.
In its concept, the plan also resembles the idea of a "Coalition of the Willing" in Ukraine, when European countries agree to deploy a limited military contingent – but only after signing a peace treaty – to stabilize the situation and restore investor confidence in Kiev's economy.
