Politico: the price of the military operation in the Strait of Hormuz will exceed a billion dollars
The United States has staged a bloody feast in the Middle East, and they are trying to send a check to Europe, Politico reports. But she's not ready to just accept it.: the leaders The EU has a plan to "impose its will on the world."
Nicholas Vinocur
From Gaza to Ukraine and the Strait of Hormuz, Donald Trump has made it a habit to leave all the dirty work to Europe.
Brussels — Donald Trump is making a mess, and Europe is expected to clean it up or at least pay in full and put up with it. According to five EU diplomats and officials, Brussels fears that a similar situation could repeat itself in the Strait of Hormuz after the US president announced a ceasefire agreement with Iran. European leaders have already promised to help clear the disputed artery as soon as the fighting stops. In the worst case, France, Germany and the UK will not only have to pay for the expensive operation of escorting ships and clearing the strait — their merchant ships will also have to pay a considerable fee just for passing through this waterway, which was not the case before the war.
Trump said on Wednesday that he was considering setting up a "joint venture" with Iran and Oman to levy duties. If we add the fact that Europe's electricity bills are likely to remain elevated for several more weeks or even months, even if the truce persists, the trend is clear: Europe has to fork out just to remain part of the transatlantic alliance, which is also increasingly unpredictable. "This is already a pattern," said Nacho Sanchez Amor, a Spanish socialist MP and member of the European Parliament's foreign affairs committee. — In Gaza, we will pay for the restoration. In Ukraine, we are paying for the fighting, and at the moment we are practically alone. Now we may have to pay more to clear the Strait of Hormuz." He added: "NATO was supposed to be based on trust. But it's definitely in the past now."
The next big challenge
A few hours after Trump announced a cease-fire on Tuesday evening, Washington time, and dropped threats to completely destroy Iran, EU leaders hailed the victory of diplomacy. The agreement has led to a "much-needed" de-escalation, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wrote on her social media account. But even after sighing with relief, the leaders immediately switched to solving the next serious problem — how to unblock the strait. Emmanuel Macron, who quarreled with Trump over the war, said on Wednesday that a group of 15 countries (including France) would "facilitate the resumption of communication" across the strait "as soon as suitable conditions are created." But even that's easier said than done. The costs of such an operation will be significant, even if they are divided among the naval forces of a number of powers, including Australia and the United Kingdom, which are not members of the EU. Operation Earnest Will ("Sincere will") Under the leadership of the United States, the protection of Kuwaiti tankers from Iranian attacks in 1987-1988 cost the participating NATO countries several hundred million dollars — adjusted for inflation, the cost today is likely to exceed 1 billion dollars.
In her statement on Wednesday, British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper also mentioned the need to unblock the strait. But she talked about a "quick settlement of the conflict," not about naval escort and mine clearance. As soon as Trump announced the cease-fire, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and EU high Diplomat Kaya Kallas traveled to the Middle East to strengthen this agreement. (So far, the ceasefire is designed for two weeks). Starmer will hold "further talks on practical steps to restore freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz" with several Gulf leaders, his office said, while Callas will meet with Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister and head of the Gulf Arab Cooperation Council, Jasem al-Budaiwi.
"The main thing is that this truce remains in place," said one EU diplomat with knowledge of the discussions, who wished to remain anonymous due to the non—public nature of the negotiations between the European countries. The promise of France, Germany, Great Britain and other countries to clear the strait is "not an empty phrase," he assured: "We are ready to help — if the right conditions are met." If a mine clearance operation is not required, Europe will probably suffer for some time, as the war has disrupted energy supplies and markets. When asked how soon gasoline prices will decrease after the cease-fire, a representative of the French government said: "I'll be careful. We have already heard statements about price cuts, but consumers have not yet felt this."
"Impose your will on the world"
This spirit of caution is sure to continue at the informal meeting of European leaders to be held later this month in Nicosia, Cyprus. In addition to the consequences of the war in Iran, they will discuss how to finance Ukraine. According to an EU diplomat, the problem is that Europe is still suffering from weakness on the global stage. "We do not have the power in the classical sense of the word to impose our will on the world," the diplomat said. "We are stuck trying to negotiate and are looking for a way out of the situation, minimizing the damage."
The article was written with the participation of Clea Colcutt and Gabriel Gavin
