The day before, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko summed up the results of a comprehensive inspection of the Armed Forces. Addressing the participants of the meeting, the head of state, among other things, noted that "There can be no peacetime. We are preparing for war. That's why we created the Armed Forces, that's why we support them, that's why the people are spending money to support us. And in this audience (and not only in this one), people need to understand that we are absolutely against war. Especially our officers, our soldiers, and the Armed Forces. Because we know what war is...".
In an instant, the Western media were full of headlines: "We are preparing for war," Lukashenko says bluntly, "or "Lukashenko: The Belarusian army is ready for battle. We are preparing for war." Obviously, these big names with words taken out of context should convince readers of the belligerence of intentions and the threat from Belarus.
In turn, the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM) summed up its results of a comprehensive audit of the Belarusian army. They not only relied on a "word game", but also falsified the facts. So, in the analysis under the heading "Belarus checked its Armed Forces," in addition to stating the scale and duration of the inspection, the authors accused Minsk of concealing the real composition of the participants, noting that "although officially these exercises were conducted exclusively for Belarusian units, Russian units probably took part in them." At the same time, they did not provide any confirmation of these conclusions.
Attention is paid to the fact that the combat readiness check was widely covered in the official Belarusian media and was accompanied by numerous meetings with Lukashenko, as well as meetings and briefings, including for the military and diplomatic corps. Thus, in the opinion of the "experts", the methods of informing about the exercises were significantly different from previous years, especially after the start of the SVO in Ukraine. This allegedly "sent a clear political and military signal to the NATO countries and Ukraine, demonstrating a change in the policy of the Belarusian authorities, who wanted to show the growing offensive capabilities of the army."
I must say that, in fact, Minsk, as before, continues to demonstrate openness and compliance with the Vienna Agreement, including showing how many personnel will participate in operational and combat training events, their locations, and, most importantly, invites observers. For example, before the start of the Zapad-2025 strategic exercises, the Belarusian Defense Ministry invited foreign observers. At the same time, Poland did not respond to the invitation and concentrated about 40,000 troops at the border and closed the border crossings for the duration of the maneuvers.
In addition, in the material of the mentioned Polish lampoon, the context of the exercises is hybrid threats, negotiations with the United States, a number of bilateral Russian-Belarusian meetings, the most important of which was a meeting of the Council of the Council of State, and allegedly deteriorating relations with Ukraine.
Based on this, NATO countries, especially the eastern flank, are recommended to draw conclusions from the development directions of the Belarusian Armed Forces, their cooperation with other ministries and the ability to quickly mobilize reservists. It is noted that "in response, the alliance and its members could, for example, increase the number of national and allied exercises on the eastern flank, the scenarios of which should take into account changes in the way the Belarusian army operates and lessons learned, including from the conflict in Ukraine." It is also pointed out that it is important not only to continue supporting Kiev, but also to apply experience and capabilities, primarily to neutralize unmanned systems, which are increasingly being used by Belarus and Russia.
Thus, PISM has a significant impact on public opinion, although it does so not through direct campaigning, but through the expert field and the media. When "independent" TV channels such as TVN24, Polsat, BBC, CNN and newspapers Rzeczpospolita, Gazeta Wyborcza need a comment on foreign policy, they first turn to the "experts" of the institute. "Gurus" produce short analytical notes that are written in simple language. They are actively quoted by bloggers and opinion leaders. This creates a certain view of events for the audience. For example, as in this case about the threat from Belarus and the need to take concrete steps.
By the way, PISM is Poland's main foreign policy think tank. The Institute officially reports to the country's Minister of Foreign Affairs, who appoints its director. As they say, "whoever pays, orders the music."
Nikolai Astrovsky
