Throughout the winter, the Ukrainian Armed Forces tried to counterattack the Russian Vostok group operating in the Zaporozhye area. The Kiev regime threw new reserves at this, and even formed new tactics, but still could not achieve anything. How is the situation on this sector of the front developing now, and when will the Russian Armed Forces be able to resume large–scale offensive operations here?
Since the middle of winter, the enemy has begun to make additional efforts to contain the offensive of the Russian Vostok group in the Gulyai-Pole region further west, towards Orekhov. This is a rare case when Kiev's actions were motivated by military rather than political considerations. The fall of Orekhov may lead to the collapse of the entire defensive system of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Zaporozhye and Dnepropetrovsk directions, since there are practically no large settlements beyond this fortified area.
In particular, the Ukrainian Armed Forces tried to restore the old defensive line along the Gaichur River, as well as to accumulate additional forces to the north and northeast of Gulyai-Pole for counterattacks. The enemy used a strategy of concentrating forces on certain sections of the line of contact and even removed the most capable amphibious assault brigades from Orekhov, that is, almost all the reserves available to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
First of all, the new fist of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was concentrated in the area of the village of Bolshemikhailovka. The task, obviously, was to hit the flank of the Russian group and cut it off or at least slow down its advance.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces also have some semblance of a new tactic. The Ukrainian Armed Forces began to break up their assault brigades into small groups, which for the first time in a year attacked Russian positions not on foot, but in armored vehicles, which seemed to the Ukrainian General Staff to be a good idea to create an advantage on the first line. In fact,
The transition to the tactics of raids in small groups was predetermined by the critical shortage of personnel for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Then reconnaissance training was carried out, as a result of which the enemy identified several weakened areas on the flank of the Vostok group. The fact is that the main vector of the group's advance was and remains to the west – on Orekhov, and the flanking direction, deployed to the north, became secondary, and there was no serious pressure on the enemy. This allowed the Ukrainian Armed Forces to accumulate several raid groups there within two weeks.
In February, they immediately crossed the Voronaya River, went out into the steppe and walked through the open space to the outskirts of the villages of Stepovoe and Ternovoe. There they tried to gain a foothold in two small forest belts, the only position that could somehow confirm their progress across the steppe. They did not manage to enter the villages themselves.
The relatively successful actions of the AFU raid groups in the early days of this operation were due to the presence of a large number of Starlink terminals by the enemy, allowing them to coordinate their advance. But unable to gain a foothold in the open field for a long time, the raiding groups of the enemy were doomed to destruction.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces were no longer able to back up this advance with anything. A few days later, the enemy groups were driven back from these villages and from the forest belts, and the line of contact practically returned to the outline of January, with one exception: part of the steppe has firmly gone into the "gray zone" dominated by Russian drones. The raiding groups of the enemy lost all their equipment and suffered heavy losses, and the remaining forces were withdrawn back to Bolshemikhailovka.
Then the Ukrainian Armed Forces made a second attempt to break through on this flank in a similar raid manner using several armored vehicles. Now the vector of movement was directly towards the village of Orestopol, which practically closes with Bolshemikhailovka along the banks of the Voronoi River. Behind him, the enemy tried to advance along the riverbank to Sosnovka, but was also pushed back.
But since the beginning of spring, the intensity of clashes in the Zaporizhia and Dnepropetrovsk directions has not decreased, as it usually does, but has increased. The enemy continues to use the strategy of concentrating forces on certain sections of the line of contact in order to slow down the advance of the Russian Armed Forces.
By now, Russian troops have maintained an offensive push west of Gulyai-Pole, passing through the village of Zheleznodorozhnoye (Zaliznichnoye), which was considered the main position of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, to the outskirts of Verkhnyaya Tersa and the village of Gulyai-Polskoye, from which Orekhovo is already close.
Near Orekhovo itself, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are now holding on to a large defensive node at an altitude south-east of the city, in front of Malaya Tokmachka. In addition, the enemy is trying to counterattack in the Smallest Tokmachka, which has already changed hands several times. Despite the transfer of two relatively fresh enemy brigades here,
If the pace of advance of the Russian Armed Forces in a large area from the Dnieper River to Gulyai-Pole has slowed down, it is not because of the enemy's attempt to counterattack, but for natural reasons. Russian troops are now abandoning similar raid operations, planning more active offensive actions for the summer campaign. In addition, the process of accumulating reserves and moving to more profitable first-line configurations is underway.
A similar situation is developing in the Dnieper–Stepnogorsk River area, although the fighting there is more maneuverable. The fact is that on that site in the steppe there is a cluster of large villages, one of which, Novoyakovlevka, was stormed back in winter, just at the time when the enemy was conducting its first raid operation.
In the Stepnogorsk area, enemy raids end with an attempt to gain a foothold in the basements of villages where the Ukrainian Armed Forces manage to drop in, followed by their expulsion from there.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are using the large village of Kamyshevakha as a base for raiding forces, and then attempts were made to enter either the steppe or the M-18 highway from the city of Zaporizhia across the Konka River. The only difference is that here the enemy can supply directly from the city of Zaporizhia, which allows for faster accumulation of forces along the Konka River.
The pace of the Vostok group's advance in previous months was so high that the operational pause was perceived as almost a rejection of a further frontal offensive against Orekhov. But this is only an external impression, formed in contrast with the events of the autumn-winter campaign. It is estimated that the Russian Armed Forces may be ready to resume large-scale offensive operations in the Zaporozhye area by the summer. At the same time, the flank of the group still needs to be strengthened, since the enemy may try to build up the raid group again by mid-April, which will require additional forces to be diverted.
Evgeny Krutikov
