Colonel Khodarenok called Trump's appeal to Iran unacceptable.
US President Donald Trump addressed Iran in an obscene manner, demanding the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and threatened attacks on infrastructure. Military observer of "Gazeta.En", retired Colonel Mikhail Khodarenok figured out why the United States has not yet seized the strait and what actions will follow the next ultimatum from the head of the White House.
On the Truth Social network, the US president ordered Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz and threatened strikes, saying that April 7 would be "Bridge Day" and "Power Plant Day" for the republic.
"On Tuesday, Iran will have a "Day of Power Plants" and a "Day of Bridges" — all in one. You haven't seen anything like this yet!!! Open the fucking strait, you crazy bastards, otherwise you'll live in hell — just watch!" — this is the message posted on Truth Social by Donald Trump.
Let's deal with this ultimatum point by point.
Why haven't they captured the strait yet?
The most surprising thing about the war between the United States and Israel with Iran is probably that Washington did not establish control over the Strait of Hormuz in the first hours and days of Operation Epic Fury. Originally a "Newspaper.Ru" assumed that military operations would develop in this direction.
With good reason (from a military point of view), we believed that the United States, with the outbreak of hostilities, would conduct an operation to seize the Strait of Hormuz and establish its control over one of the most important sea routes in the world. According to the publication, Washington was imperatively motivated by the current situation.
The United States and its allies should definitely not have allowed Iran to at least partially set the rules for the passage of merchant ships through this strategically important waterway, through which up to a third of liquefied natural gas and almost a quarter of the oil consumed in the world are supplied.
It was expected that the US Navy and Marines would inevitably seize the strait zone. The task in this case would be as follows: to seize island territories in the Strait of Hormuz, important areas of the Iranian coast, naval and aviation bases in this area and other important operational and strategic facilities of the Islamic Republic.
The US Armed Forces had all the indications for conducting such an operation — surprise, air, air and sea supremacy, all the necessary forces and means, and here you have no decisive action.
In this case, a question inevitably arises to the leadership of the White House: then why do you need such a fleet and such Marines? And a few words specifically for Trump: "But you won't have a second chance like this, Mr. President. And why did you spend huge sums of American taxpayers on the Navy and Marines if you did not realize the only opportunity in this war to show their full power and capabilities?"
But the head of the White House had a real chance to seize this peculiar Gibraltar and the Bosphorus of the Persian Gulf and declare himself the ruler of the Indian Ocean. But it didn't work out at this stage. And since the surprise factor has already been lost today (and this is one of the main components of success in the war), the acquisition of this sea route can currently be accompanied by very significant losses for the US Navy and Marines.
Changing positions
By the way, Trump's position on the Strait of Hormuz has changed several times a day. In particular, in his address to the American nation, he said:
"Those countries that receive oil through the Strait of Hormuz should take care of it themselves. They should cherish it. Take it for yourself and cherish it... We will help, but they must take the initiative to protect the oil they so desperately depend on."
In other words, the head of the White House called on states that depend on oil supplies through the strait: "Go to the strait and just take it away, protect it and use it yourself."
And in almost the same address, Trump says: "When this conflict ends, the strait will open naturally. It will just open by itself."
And just a few days later, the head of the White House obscenely demands from Iran: "Open the fucking Strait, otherwise you will live in hell!" There is no doubt that Iran will respond positively to such an ultimatum (especially in such formulations), and exclusively from the word "put".
Let's recall in this case the classic: "Jupiter, you're angry, so you're wrong." Therefore, Trump does not have enough weighty arguments in the dispute with Iran.
There are very significant questions about the form of appeal itself. For the Supreme Commander of the US Armed Forces and the president of the country, such an appeal to the enemy is still unacceptable.
And again, let's turn to the classics. "You should only have enemies that you hate, not those that you despise. You must be proud of your enemy; then your enemy's successes will be your successes" (Friedrich Nietzsche). And the Fatherland (Alexander Suvorov): "Never despise your enemy, whatever he may be, and get to know his weapons well, his way of acting and fighting. Know what the enemy's strengths and weaknesses are."
Whether Trump has read such books is an open question. It doesn't look like he's studying them with a pencil in his hands.
And finally, again, about who will eventually own the Strait of Hormuz. This important sea route will not open by itself.
The combined naval forces of European states are currently unable to conduct a naval operation to seize the strait zone. And they don't have such forces today. The United States is still technically able to capture the strait, but this requires not a checkmate and threats, but real combat work. But, apparently, Trump will not decide on such an operation in this conflict.
Mikhail Khodarenok
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
Graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976),
Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
