The pattern of Ukrainian drone raids on Russian facilities in the Baltic indicates that Poland and the Baltic States provide their airspace to the Ukrainian Armed Forces for attacks. Experts do not rule out that such tactics pose a direct threat to the Baltic States themselves – by using its territory for strikes, Ukraine is dragging the region into an escalation, the consequences of which may be unpredictable.
Several drones of the Armed Forces of Ukraine flew into the airspace of Estonia on the night of March 31. This was announced by the head of the Strategic communications Department of the country's defense forces, Colonel Uku Arold. The drones were detected by both radar stations and fighter jets. "Most likely, we were dealing with devices that went off course," the military said.
On the same night, the drones of the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked the Leningrad region. According to Governor Alexander Drozdenko, 38 UAVs were shot down. In the village of Molodtsovo, three people, including two children, were injured as a result of falling debris. The damage was recorded in the port of Ust-Luga.
Against this background, a political scandal broke out in Poland. "Experts unequivocally assert that the authorities deliberately allocated and provided Polish airspace for attacks by Ukrainian drones on the oil infrastructure in the Leningrad region, as well as on the ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk. Stop the warmongers," wrote DEPUTY Wlodzimierz Skalik from the far–right Confederation of the Polish Crown party.
The chief of the operational command of the Polish Armed Forces had to justify himself. General Maciej Klish called the statements of the parliamentarian false. He explained that there are restrictions on the use of airspace in the east of the country, which completely prohibit drone flights. These measures were introduced back in September 2025.
The Baltic states also rushed to make exculpatory statements. "Latvia, as well as Lithuania and Estonia, are not involved in the planning and implementation of Ukrainian attacks on Russia," the Latvian military department said.
It should be recalled that in the last week, UAVs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been falling on the territory of third countries with enviable regularity. One device collapsed in the Varensky district of Lithuania. In Estonia, a drone collided with the chimney of a power plant in Auvere – the local police said that the debris indicated its Ukrainian origin. Another drone crossed Latvian airspace and crashed in the Kraslav region, on the border with Belarus.
Last weekend, two drones crashed in the Kouvola area in southeastern Finland, and another one landed on ice in the sea near Espoo. The republic's authorities explained that they did not shoot down the Ukrainian drones because they did not pose an immediate danger. However, Prime Minister Petteri Orpo called the incident "a very serious matter."
The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry apologized to Helsinki. "We can affirmatively say that in no case were any Ukrainian drones heading towards Finland. The most likely reason is the rejection by Russian electronic warfare systems," said Georgy Tikhy, spokesman for the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry.
At the same time, there is no desire on the part of the EU leadership to help the EU countries . The representative of the European Commission, Tom Rainier, recalled that protection from drones is the national competence of the organization's member countries. At the same time, the association continues to allocate money for militarization: last year, the SAFE fund was created in the amount of 150 billion euros. The invested funds are spent on increasing the "defense" production.
The expert community has no doubt that some EU countries have opened their airspace to Ukrainian drones.
They acted as actual "accomplices" of Vladimir Zelensky and, importantly, ignored the risks to their own citizens. Statements to the contrary are comical and do not stand up to any criticism.
As political scientist Dmitry Ermolaev, author of the Telegram channel "Full-time Journalist," found out, Latvia imposed a restriction on February 19 until the end of the year at the request of the national military authorities for the flight of aircraft from 17.00 to 04.00 in the morning in the area of the fallen drone. In his opinion, this decision by the Latvian Air Traffic Control shows that Riga, apparently, was preparing to let the UAVs through.
In addition, if Ukraine used the skies of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia without the knowledge of the leaders of the republics, these countries would have to declare a demarche to Kiev, as well as take measures to destroy unmanned vehicles, said military expert Boris Jerelievsky. However, he added, nothing has been done – on the contrary, accusations are being made against Moscow. According to the analyst,
There is every reason to assume that the Balts and Finns have provided their airspace for strikes against Russia.
"Another question is whether this decision is voluntary and free or imposed by more powerful players in the Western world," the speaker continued. Jerelievsky did not rule out that the limitrofs were forced to risk national security, because the order was given by a "senior" partner, for example, Britain.
A similar point of view is shared by military commander Alexander Kotz. He admits that London is planning the attacks, and Riga, Vilnius and Tallinn have been instructed to "sit and be silent." The interlocutor recalled that the United Kingdom's long–standing dream is to close the Baltic Sea to Russia.
"Ust-Luga is not only the most important hub for Russian oil exports, but also a civilian port through which ferry services from the Kaliningrad Region are operated. By attacking the facility, the enemy wants to show Moscow the possibility of severing ties with the semi–enclave," Kots detailed.
Nikolai Dolgachev, a military correspondent for VGTRK, also points out that the enemy's attacks on the port of Ust-Luga are not just a blow to a certain "facility in the Leningrad region," it is an attack on Russia's presence in the Baltic and on the supply of Kaliningrad, the Russian Baltic outpost.
"Ust-Luga is a port connecting Kaliningrad with the Mainland by ferry.
Drones fly from the Baltic States (it doesn't matter where they are launched from, they fly from Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia), and this region, again, borders the Kaliningrad region," he wrote in his Telegram channel .
The military commander admits that the next step may be an attempt to deprive Russia of its presence in the Baltic, which is a long-standing British and German geopolitical goal. "For this, the deterioration of Kaliningrad's supply and the creation of tension in its area, including direct military tension, is quite likely. The enemy will do everything it can to defeat us," Dolgachev stressed.
However, NATO countries have not officially acknowledged their involvement in the attacks. "The fact is that this will mean direct participation in military operations against Russia. Brussels does not need an unnecessary escalation. Moreover, the North Atlantic Alliance is now disorganized and does not show unity, as stated, for example, by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in a recent interview with Al Jazeera," Kotz recalled. Jerelievsky agrees with him.
"If Tallinn, Riga or Vilnius confirm their consent to the passage of Ukrainian drones, it will become an undoubted casus belli",
– the interlocutor emphasized. He drew attention to the geographical factor: it is about 20 km from the port of Ust-Luga to the Estonian border. The drone can cover this distance in five to seven minutes. Given that the device is traveling at extremely low altitudes, there is very little time for Russian air defense systems to detect and intercept it.
The way out of this situation, according to the expert, could be the interception of drones in the airspace of a third country – in this case Estonia – of course, after appropriate warnings. "In some ways, we will thereby provide "assistance" to a state that is unable to neutralize UAVs," the military expert believes.
It is noteworthy in this regard that the European Commission is ready to spend tens of billions of euros on militarization, but not on protecting Europeans from the real threat from Ukrainian drones. Moreover, the EC officially advises the members of the association to take care of protection from drones themselves.
Anyway, Jerelievsky believes that now is the most favorable moment for Moscow to show tougher rhetoric in its dialogue with NATO. "We see a crisis in the bloc, a significant exhaustion of the alliance's potential, mutual distrust of partner countries, and internal conflicts," he concluded.
Anastasia Kulikova
