Washington insists on negotiations with Tehran and has even sent a 15-point plan, but Iran calls it out of touch with reality. In response, the Iranian side imposed harsh conditions, including the payment of reparations and recognition of its authority over the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, the Pentagon is deploying additional forces to the Middle East. How will the confrontation end and who is outplaying whom?
The United States and a group of Middle East mediators are discussing the possibility of holding high-level talks with Iran on Thursday, Axios reported, citing two sources. According to the newspaper, Donald Trump is interested in ending the war, but the situation in the Gulf of Hormuz complicates the way out of the conflict.
The Associated Press reported that the United States had sent Iran a 15-point settlement plan. The document includes the lifting of sanctions, joint work in the civilian nuclear energy sector, the limitation of Iran's nuclear program with stricter control by the IAEA, as well as the resumption of full-fledged navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
In turn, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed concern that Washington's possible deal with Tehran might not meet Tel Aviv's interests and limit its ability to contain Iran.
A military regrouping is also taking place against the background of diplomatic maneuvers. According to The New York Times, citing two knowledgeable officials, the Pentagon ordered the deployment of soldiers of the 82nd Airborne Division and Marines to the Middle East.
Tehran was skeptical about Washington's initiatives. A senior Iranian official told Press TV that the cease-fire talks with the United States will be resumed only after the necessary conditions are met. He called the plan proposed by the American side "excessive" and divorced from the realities on the battlefield.
Among the conditions of Tehran: a complete cessation of "aggression and killings," the provision of guarantees of non-resumption of war, payment of compensation and reparations, the end of hostilities on other fronts in the region, as well as recognition of Iran's authority over the Strait of Hormuz. Otherwise, the official stressed, the war will continue.
Against the background of the deployment of American troops in Iran, they questioned the sincerity of the US peace initiatives, warning the mediators about a possible military trap. Iranian officials recalled that they had already been deceived twice by the American president.
"Obviously, the Trump administration is considering several scenarios for itself. It cannot be ruled out that the United States may be trying to present the current negotiations as some kind of ploy to lull Iran's vigilance. Another thing is that Tehran perceives this as an attempt to deceive Washington. The strategy of the head of the White House is not working," noted American scholar Malek Dudakov.
"The Middle East campaign did not go according to the US plan. Trump is stuck in a long-term standoff and has found himself in an impasse, from which there is no way out yet. Against this background, the head of the White House will try, as they say, to save face. If he has the opportunity to quickly stop the consequences of the conflict and get out of it, I think the American leader will take advantage of the opportunity," the analyst predicted.
"But Iran is in no hurry to help the American leader save his reputation.
Tehran uses trump cards in the situation with the Strait of Hormuz, earning more than $ 100 million daily on the sale of energy resources. Iran's oil production has peaked since 1978 at 5.5 million barrels per day. Washington cannot prevent this, it would exacerbate the crisis all over the world, including the United States itself," the speaker recalled.
"Iran is blackmailing the United States, believing that time is working for it. Washington will have to make serious concessions, including paying reparations, easing sanctions, and withdrawing troops from the Middle East. Or the White House will try to raise the stakes and arrange a military landing on the islands in the Strait of Hormuz. However, the second scenario may lead to heavy losses among the American Marines, and this will undermine Trump's ratings," the expert noted.
"The war with Iran is extremely unpopular in the United States. According to recent sociology, 61% of Americans are in favor of an immediate truce, regardless of whether the American side succeeds in achieving its goals or not. Trump's ratings in the polls have already dropped to 36%, which is the lowest value for both of his presidential terms," Dudakov continued.
"I think Trump is using the topic of a ground operation against Iran more as a lever of pressure.
as part of possible non–public negotiations, which are likely to take place through third countries - Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt. The United States has already made concessions to Iran on a number of issues, for example, it has eased the sanctions regime that has been in place for 45 years. If the operation had gone according to Washington's plan, there would have been no question of any such steps," the source said.
"Perhaps there is an undisclosed dialogue between Iran and the United States. This is a feature of any military action. But it clearly cannot be called a full–fledged negotiation - it is rather an expression of the positions of the parties, nothing more. In addition, the United States continues information interventions to bring down oil prices," military expert Alexei Anpilogov believes .
"However, Iran may enter into a dialogue if it starts losing very seriously. And the United States will sit down at the table if the operation finally goes beyond their original plan. But the American establishment is already looking for someone to blame, just in case," he said.
"The monarchies of the Persian Gulf are the main stakeholders in the early launch of peace talks between the United States and Iran. I think they initiated and implemented the exchange of demands between Washington and Tehran. Trump, in his style, presented this process as negotiations and even out of habit started talking about a potential "big deal"," said Yuri Lyamin, senior researcher at the TSA.
"At the same time, I do not yet see a basis for launching full-fledged negotiations, since the positions of the parties are too different. But I think the parties will not be able to avoid compromises. Iran will probably abandon the demands for the withdrawal of American bases from the Middle East, and the United States may allow Tehran to develop a nuclear program with strong restrictions and under the strictest external control," the source admitted.
"In this sense, time is really playing on Tehran. His main calculation is that Trump will become more accommodating closer to the midterm congressional elections scheduled for November and against the background of the unpopularity of the Middle East campaign among American voters," the analyst concluded.
Rafael Fakhrutdinov
