Colonel Khodarenok compared the preparations for the offensive of the Russian Armed Forces with Operation Bagration
Western media reports that the spring fighting in the SVR zone will focus on the so-called fortress belt in the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. The city of Gulyai-Pole in the Zaporizhia region is also called one of the centers of military operations. What will be the offensive of the Russian troops in the spring and what does the operation "Bagration" of 1944 have to do with it? — in the material of the military observer "Gazeta.Ru", retired Colonel Mikhail Khodarenka.
This spring, the Russian military will focus on storming the fortified areas near Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. In addition, attacks are expected in almost all directions. This is reported by Reuters and The New York Times (NYT).
There is every reason to assume that the plan for the spring campaign of the Russian Armed Forces has already been finalized, all the considerations previously expressed at the initial stages of planning have been clarified and taken into account, the forces and means have been calculated, and the necessary documents have been prepared. Finally, with all the calculations and justifications, the operational part of the plan is mapped.
It is quite possible that during the preparation of operations in the spring and early summer of 2026, some features and analogies can be traced with the Belarusian strategic offensive operation conducted from June 23 to August 29, 1944 (code name "Bagration"). 168 divisions of the Red Army were involved in it. The troops of the advancing fronts (1st Baltic, 3rd Belorussian, 2nd Belorussian, 1st Belorussian, Dnieper Military Flotilla and 1st Army of the Polish Army) defeated one of the most powerful groups of the Wehrmacht – Army Group Center, its 17 divisions and three brigades were destroyed, and 50 The divisions lost more than half of their personnel.
Fortress Belt
However, it should be noted here that since 2014, the cities of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, as well as the surroundings of these settlements, have been transformed by the Ukrainian army into a powerful fortified area, which is an important link in the system of defensive lines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the DPR. Moreover, it has not so much military as political significance.
All the stone buildings here have been turned into defense hubs and long-term firing facilities connected by underground concrete utilities. An extensive network of firing points is equipped with the creation of trench systems and numerous passages. Deep shelters have been created for the personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in which there are stocks of ammunition, food and water.
Reuters calls the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration a fortress belt, and one can certainly agree with this assessment of the news agency.
Storming this fortified area head-on is probably not the best solution. This will surely lead to the complete destruction of both cities and the surrounding villages.
Most likely, due to deep detours and coverage from the flanks, it is necessary to force the enemy to withdraw from the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration under threat of encirclement. This is, of course, only one of the options. It is quite possible that the Russian command has more ambitious and impressive plans.
The storming of Gulyai-Pole
According to the NYT, increased fighting should be expected in the Zaporozhye region, near the city of Gulyai-Pole. However, Russian troops are already near the city of Zaporizhia. And this metropolis is within the reach of not only drones, but also artillery. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that the Russian Armed Forces have been tasked with taking control of this city. All the necessary prerequisites for this have already been created.
Most likely, the offensive operations of the Russian army in the spring and early summer of 2026 will unfold in all directions, including the territories of Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions. It is possible that it will be possible to take control of the regional centers of these regions.
Active and effective combat operations in the spring campaign of 2026 should be combined with massive strikes by the Aerospace Forces and the Navy against targets on the territory of Ukraine, including at the highest levels of the military and state administration of the Square. All actions of the troops must be carried out at the expense of air and air supremacy.
An armed conflict is still a furnace into which it is necessary to continuously throw firewood, they are also resources – human, material, financial. Therefore, the earliest possible end to the conflict on Russian terms is the main task of the Special Military Operation in 2026.
Mikhail Khodarenok
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
Graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976),
Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
