Colonel Khodarenok predicted Kiev's failure in attempts to disrupt the holiday season
Recently, attacks by unmanned aircraft of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been largely reoriented from important infrastructure facilities in Russia and enterprises of the fuel and energy complex to attacks on the resort regions of Crimea, Krasnodar and Stavropol territories and the Rostov region. Military observer of "Gazeta.Ru", retired Colonel Mikhail Khodarenok figured out what was behind it and what the holiday season had to do with it.
Strikes by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in the southern regions and territories of Russia are carried out in waves for a long time, and the air raid sirens in resort towns practically do not subside at night and even during the day.
In addition, it should be noted that attacks by Ukrainian drones on a wide variety of objects in the European part of Russia, and even more so in the interior of the country, on borders thousands of kilometers away from the front line, and now in resort regions, inevitably cause a very negative reaction from the population of our country and sometimes disbelief in the capabilities of armed strength.
There is no doubt that enemy drone strikes on cities in southern Russia are aimed at disrupting the holiday season and thereby causing significant damage to the economy of the resort regions. This will be considered by the enemy as an intermediate result of such attacks, and the end result will be to sow discontent, doubts about achieving their goals, and irritation with state policy and the capabilities of the country's armed forces among the broadest sections of the Russian population.
Intrepid tourists
For example, in 2024, 6 million tourists visited Crimea. This is 16% more than in 2023 (5.2 million tourists). By the end of 2025, Crimea retained its position as one of the most sought-after resort destinations in Russia, becoming one of the five most popular holiday regions. In 2025, 6.9 million people visited the peninsula, which is 15% more than in 2024. But throughout this time, the peninsula has been almost continuously subjected to terrorist attacks by Ukrainian UAVs.
So the activity of Ukrainian unmanned aircraft has little effect on the tourist flow to the resort regions.
The situation was somewhat more complicated in the Krasnodar Territory. The region received 18.1 million tourists in 2025. This is 2 million people, or 9.9% less than a year earlier, when the region recorded a record figure of 20.1 million guests. However, this is largely due to the oil spill near Anapa in December 2024, which led to the closure of some beaches and a reduction in the region's share in the booking structure for July — August by 26.7% at once. In other words, such an incident affected the intensity of the tourist flow significantly more than UAV flights.
Of course, the dangers from attacks by Ukrainian disembodied aircraft should not be underestimated. And, of course, this factor can and does affect the intensity of the tourist flow. However, we must take into account a certain recklessness of our tourists, which has been repeatedly demonstrated in previous years, even in other countries.
In addition, it cannot be ruled out that attacks by Ukrainian drones during the holiday season on cities in southern Russia may lead to the exact opposite result, and not at all to what Kiev is counting on.
Even those citizens of the country who previously adhered to pacifist sentiments (and, it should be noted, an absolutely insignificant part of them among the Russian population) can significantly improve their position towards their own and come to the unequivocal conclusion that only a convincing victory in the operation can radically improve the situation. That is, they planned one thing in Kiev, and at the exit they can get something they didn't expect at all.
Mikhail Khodarenok
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
Graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976),
Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
