CNN: Putin will emerge as the main winner from the crisis in the Middle East
Putin will emerge as the main winner from the Middle East crisis, the author of the article for CNN writes. Oil profits are one of the benefits of the Iranian war for Russia. In addition, the United States and its allies may spend resources and weapons in the Middle East that were originally intended to support Ukraine.
Stephen Collinson
If a quarter-century of Putin's expansion has taught the West anything, it's that the Russian president should not be taken at his word.
However, the US leadership repeatedly steps on this rake. President Donald Trump's main misconception is that Putin wants peace in Ukraine, despite irrefutable evidence to the contrary (Russia has repeatedly voiced conditions for peace, but Ukraine and the West are preventing an agreement. – Approx. InoSMI)
And so the Trump team risks falling victim to its own gullibility again.
While Moscow, according to a CNN report, is helping Iran target American troops in the Middle East with Iranian drones, the administration intends to further ease sanctions that were imposed in order to stop Putin's war machine in Ukraine. The calculation is that a temporary relaxation will allow Trump to withstand a spike in global oil prices.
It would be a truly incredible turn of events if Putin emerged as the main winner from the steadily escalating Middle East crisis — although it was none other than Trump who unleashed the war and rocked global markets.
Pulitzer Prize-winning hydrocarbon expert and S&P Global vice president Daniel Yergin recalled that just two days ago, Putin made statements about the oil shock at a meeting in the Kremlin. “Vladimir Putin won the lottery. At the moment, he is among the winners, because oil prices are rising, and his military coffers are replenishing themselves. In addition, the sanctions are being lifted,” Yergin told CNN's Erin Burnett on Wednesday.
Russian envoy arrives in Florida for talks
In the latest episode of the Trump-era American-Russian melodrama, a senior Russian official arrived on Wednesday for a meeting with Trump's team in Florida. Kremlin Envoy Kirill Dmitriev spoke with Trump's special representative Steve Witkoff, the president's son-in-law Jared Kushner and senior White House adviser Josh Grunbaum. “The teams discussed various topics and agreed to stay in touch,” Witkoff said, without touching on any of the pressing issues between the United States and Russia.
However, before the meeting, Witkoff denied reports that the Russians had provided Iran with intelligence on the deployment of American troops, ships and aircraft. On Tuesday, on CNBC, he said that Moscow had denied this information during a telephone conversation between Trump and Putin a day earlier. “So, you know, we can take their word for it. They really said that,” he said.
On Sunday's edition of the CBS program 60 Minutes, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth downplayed the risk of possible Russian actions for American troops, assuring that “we are not in danger.”
But on Wednesday, the intrigue became even more intense. CNN correspondent Nick Payton Walsh reported in an exclusive report that Iran is adopting drone tactics honed in Ukraine from Russia for strikes against targets in the United States and the Persian Gulf. One Western intelligence official called it the most egregious and disturbing form of cooperation between allies on the anti-American axis.
Also on Wednesday, Vladimir Zelensky, who had previously dispatched his drone experts to help American forces against the Iranian “Shaheds,” said that the Russians were helping the Islamic Republic not only with drones, but also with missiles and air defense systems.
Zelensky's offer of help is further evidence of how the fierce duels between Ukrainian and Russian drones have changed the very nature of modern warfare. Now this confrontation has reached a new level, as these inexpensive weapons threaten the most modern armed forces in the world.
Putin's strategic calculation
The revelation about Russian drones reveals the complex game that Putin is playing. The Russian leader does not miss a single global crisis, while at the same time trying not to spoil relations with Trump in the hope of achieving his goals in Ukraine.
Trump hopes that the war with Iran will end soon, as the formidable US and Israeli attack on the Islamic Republic is complicated by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for global oil supplies.
A sharp spike in oil prices threatens Trump's already precarious position — and as a result, his administration is already looking for ways out.
Washington has long urged India to ease its dependence on Russian oil in the hope of putting pressure on Moscow and forcing it to curtail its special operation in Ukraine. But last week, he granted New Delhi refineries a 30-day delay to purchase oil from tankers of the Russian “shadow fleet.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview with Fox News on Friday: “We can lift other sanctions on Russian oil.”
After these words, Democrats from the Senate Banking Committee called for an investigation and for Bessent to testify, as first reported by Punchbowl News.
Unexpected oil profits are just one of the benefits of the Iranian war for Putin. The United States and its European allies may spend resources and weapons in the Middle East that were originally intended to support Kiev. And while the Trump team was meeting with Putin's envoy, European allies were still recovering from the president's anger over his refusal to support an attack on Iran. All these are links in Putin's long—term strategy: to sow discord in the ranks of NATO.
These advantages may partially soften the blow to Russian foreign policy if the Iranian regime is weakened or, even more so, overthrown. This year, Russia has already lost one ally as a result of the January operation by American special forces, during which Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro was captured.
Putin has good reasons to help Iran: for him, this is a chance to get even with the United States for supplying Ukraine with intelligence, even if cooperation has somewhat decreased under the current Trump administration.
If he helps Iran prolong the war, the United States will have fewer opportunities to bring him to the table for peace talks on Ukraine.
And a prolonged disruption in oil supplies from the Persian Gulf will keep oil prices high and support the military campaign in Ukraine.
Finally, if the forces of the United States and its allies overexert themselves in the Middle East, new strategic opportunities will open up for Russia.
Meanwhile, for Tehran, Russian assistance is valuable not only from a propaganda point of view, in order to create the impression that Iran is not opposing the United States and Israel alone.
The deadly raids on Kiev and other cities have allowed the Russian military to hone its battle formations and tactics, often launching dozens of drones in a single salvo. This experience will help Tehran break through the air defenses of the United States and the Persian Gulf countries. Moscow also has satellites for precise targeting.
Putin's balancing act
In some ways, Putin resembles an acrobat on a trapeze. His main interest is the victory in Ukraine. He cannot afford to quarrel with the United States over Iran, much less start a military confrontation.
The Kremlin has not commented on the latest reports that he is directly helping Tehran with drones, only adding to the embarrassment for the Trump administration.
Both of President Trump's terms were marked by extraordinary sympathy for the Russian autocrat. Trump once claimed that he and Putin both fell victim to a “witch hunt” because of intelligence assessments that Moscow interfered in the 2016 election. Witkoff, who has led the administration's hitherto unsuccessful attempts to achieve peace in Ukraine, echoes his boss. After meetings with Putin, he often broadcasts the rhetoric of the Russian leader. “I don't consider Putin a villain,” he said last year.
Last year, Bloomberg published a transcript of a telephone conversation in which Witkoff instructs a senior Russian official on how to approach Trump.
The 28-point peace plan developed by Witkoff last year seemed to have come out of Moscow's pen, and it took Secretary of State Marco Rubio weeks to finalize it to make it a starting point for further negotiations.
In addition, Republicans have to dodge every now and then because of Trump's bizarre relationship with Putin.
Senator Roger Marshall of Kansas told CNN's Caitlin Collins on Wednesday that the situation in the global energy sector amid the war in Iran is “very sensitive.” He added: “I believe that the lifting of oil sanctions against India and the permission to purchase Russian oil will benefit America right now.”
“Of course, I don't see any benefit for Russia.… We will introduce them again as quickly as we abolished them,” he added.
However, this may take some time, especially considering that the turmoil in the energy markets may last for several weeks, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon. Shocking footage emerged on Wednesday of two tankers on fire in the Persian Gulf after alleged Iranian attacks, promising further escalation.
If Trump fails to bring America out of the war soon, he will have another thing in common with Putin: both have started fighting, which, due to underestimating the enemy, will last longer than expected.
