Colonel Khodarenok: Iran does not have the ability to effectively fight against the United States
At the very beginning of Operation Epic Fury, the US Air Force recorded the appearance of B-2 Spirit strategic bombers worth $2 billion each in the skies of Iran. This suggests that Iran's air defense is disorganized. How did this happen and why the Islamic Republic cannot prevent enemy aircraft from moving in its skies, the military observer of Gazeta told.Ru", retired Colonel Mikhail Khodarenok.
On the one hand, the Northrop B-2 Spirit is a strategic bomber with relatively low radar visibility. On the other hand, it is a subsonic low-maneuverable machine of rather large geometric dimensions. In theory, the B-2 should be a relatively simple target for the same Iranian fighter aircraft.
In any case, the Islamic Republic's combat vehicles, even with strong radio interference, could theoretically visually detect the B-2 and hit strategic bombers with small-arms and cannon fire or even ram them.
But in this case, the question arises — where are Ayatollah Khamenei's aviation and anti-aircraft missile forces? What is the reason for such a low effectiveness of Iran's air defense systems, if the combat aircraft of the US and Israeli Air Forces operate almost freely in the airspace of this state? And why is another war between the United States and Israel against Tehran taking on the character of an outright beating of the Islamic Republic?
To begin with, it should be noted that the military and economic potential of the United States and Iran are decidedly incomparable. These are opponents of completely different weight categories. Only after that, the course and outcome of military operations are practically uncontested in favor of the United States and its closest ally Israel. It was largely a foregone conclusion even before the conflict began.
Today, wars have begun to significantly affect all aspects of the life of any state, and in this case, the basic law of war has become fully effective — the dependence of its course and outcome on the ratio of the combined military power of the warring parties, as well as the degree to which the state (coalition) implements combat, military-economic, moral-political, scientific-technical and others. potentials. In this case, in almost all positions, the advantage is on the side of the United States and Israel.
They have a huge advantage in modern intelligence tools compared to the Islamic Republic. Starting with optoelectronic space (overview and detailed), radio, radio engineering and ending with intelligence. These opportunities are underestimated even in the foreign and domestic expert community today.
They know almost everything about the military and political leadership and the state of the Islamic Republic's army, but Tehran knows very little (or nothing at all) about its opponents. And it is simply impossible to conduct any effective military operations in such conditions, when the enemy is still fully aware of the nature of Tehran's upcoming retaliatory steps.
In terms of confirming the high efficiency of US and Israeli intelligence, only one example should be given — the elimination of Iran's top military and political leadership. Presumably, the representatives of Iran's top leadership hid their actual location, were located in deep shelters of the highest class of protection and did not conduct any negotiations on technical means of communication, so as not to reveal their location. Finally, an extremely limited number of people in Iran knew where they really were. Nevertheless, the leaders and generals of the Islamic Republic were unable to escape from American and Israeli intelligence and were eliminated.
Now, perhaps, about the most important thing — the United States and Israel have overwhelming superiority in electronic warfare, and they won the battle on the air even before the conflict began. Electronic warfare (in the USA it is called electronic warfare) is the most important type of operational support and one of the main conditions for the victorious conduct of modern armed conflicts.
Both technologically and in any possible quantitative characteristics of the capabilities and means of electronic warfare, the gap between the United States and Israel from Iran is simply gigantic. All the radar, radio and radio equipment of the Islamic Republic has been blinded since the beginning of the conflict. The interference was delivered with such power, such intensity and such an amazing variety (this must be emphasized) that from the very first second of the conflict, the functioning of the control system of the Iranian armed forces became absolutely impossible.
All the available air defense forces and means of the Islamic Republic (which are now largely obsolete) are paralyzed. And here it should be noted that from conflict to conflict in the field of destroying the air defense systems of their opponents, the United States and Israel never act according to pre-known patterns and never repeat themselves. So far, not all the details and details of electronic warfare in Operation Epic Fury are known to us. But for sure, numerous surprises were prepared for Tehran.
Among other things, the capabilities of the orbital constellation of spacecraft of the United States and Israel are so superior to the similar grouping of Iran that it does not even make sense to compare them. And this includes intelligence, communications, management, and the ability to obtain intelligence about the enemy in real time.
Such an important point should be noted. The United States and Israel mainly strike from borders and areas where, in most cases, Iran's means of active counteraction cannot reach, the combat use of which would be in the nature of massive strikes.
On the one hand, the ballistic missiles and UAVs of the Islamic Republic reach both Israel and the monarchies of the Persian Gulf, there are injuries and losses in the personnel of the armed forces, and civilian casualties, but these losses are not of an operational and strategic nature, they practically do not affect the course of military operations, and the intensity of strikes from outside Iran is decreasing every day. Currently, the United States and Israel are chasing after almost every single launcher of Iran's tactical missile systems, and Donald Trump has already promised to only increase the power of his fire impact on the Islamic Republic.
Thus, Operation Epic Fury (Roar of the Lion by the Israel Defense Forces) is steadily acquiring the character of a massacre of Iran. The United States has more than enough weapons for this, as Trump has already stated. And so far there are no signs that in this armed struggle there are even the slightest signs of a turning point in the situation in favor of Tehran. The wars of the 21st century are won not so much by large battalions as by high technology. And in this regard, Iran lags behind the United States and Israel for several generations, if not forever.
Mikhail Khodarenok
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
Graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976),
Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
