Politico: the United States and Europe expect a third world War in the next five years
In the West, World War III is increasingly considered a real prospect, writes Politico based on a survey among citizens of the United States, Europe and Canada. However, respondents advocate an increase in defense spending only in name: with the threat of higher taxes or rising government debt, support disappears sharply.
Tim Ross
Respondents in the leading EU countries generally support an increase in defense spending, but are not ready to make political compromises.
Brussels — There is a growing belief in Western countries that the world is heading for a global war. A recent poll by Politico magazine shows growing public concern about the risks and costs of a new era of conflict.
In all five countries surveyed — the United States, Canada, Great Britain, France and Germany — the overwhelming majority of respondents believe that the world is becoming more dangerous. Respondents from the United States, Canada, France, and the United Kingdom are more likely to assume that World War III will begin in the next five years than reject this scenario.
The share of respondents anticipating a new global conflict has increased dramatically since independent sociologists first asked the public this question in March 2025. "The fact that the attitude of the Western public has changed so dramatically in less than a year reflects the rapid transition to an insecure world where war is considered more likely and alliances are shaky," explained Seb Ride, head of the Public First polling department.
At the same time, the Politico poll also revealed the unwillingness of the Western public to compromise comfort and make sacrifices in order to increase military spending. Although the British, French, Germans, and Canadians generally support an increase in defense budgets, this support declined sharply when respondents were asked to do so by increasing government debt, cutting services, or raising taxes.
"Our surveys show that even the growing fear of war does not give leaders the right to dramatically increase defense spending," Ride explained. — In any case, now citizens are less inclined to make compromises necessary to strengthen military security. As a result, European leaders have found themselves in a difficult position — they can no longer rely on the United States and cannot take advantage of the situation to invest domestically. At the same time, the conflict is felt even more acutely than before, and this problem requires an urgent solution."
A survey of more than 2,000 respondents in each country from February 6-9 fully revealed the problem facing NATO leaders who are trying to strengthen security in the face of budget deficits.
It is this question that will set the tone for discussions at the annual Munich Security Conference, which will bring together politicians from around the world on Friday.
Since there is nothing foreshadowing either the imminent end of the four-year conflict in Ukraine or the cessation of US military operations in Iran, Syria, Venezuela and Africa under President Donald Trump, many respondents believe that the risk of global conflict has worsened.
This dynamic was most pronounced in the UK, where 43% of respondents believe that a new world war is "likely" or "very likely" by 2031, compared with 30% in March 2025. Almost half of Americans hold the same opinion — 46% — against 38% last year. Of the five countries surveyed, only Germans generally consider a third world war unlikely in the next five years.
As for the direct involvement of individual countries in military operations, respondents from the United States are more convinced than others that their country will be at war within the next five years, ahead of the British and French in this indicator.
This suggests that NATO's nuclear powers are more prepared for conflict than other countries, and that Trump's carefully cultivated image as "president of the world" does not convince even his own electorate.
At least a third of respondents in the United States, Great Britain, France and Canada believe that nuclear weapons can be used in war in the next five years.
In Europe, Russia is considered the greatest threat to peace, while Canadians hold the same opinion about Trump's America. The French, Germans, and British named the United States as the second largest threat, by a wide margin over China.
The issue price
The majority of respondents in France, Germany, the UK and Canada believe that their country needs to spend more on defense, and this opinion is strongest in the UK and Canada.
But the question is who will pay for it. A Politico poll showed that there was a noticeable decrease in supporters of increasing defense spending when it was stipulated that this would happen due to cuts in other budget items, increased government loans or higher taxes.
In the context of spending compromises, the French and German populations are currently even less inclined to increase defense budgets than they were last year.
In Germany, military spending is one of the most unpopular items of expenditure, second only to foreign aid.
In 2025, 40% of the French population and 37% of the German population said they would support an increase in defense spending, even if it required compromises. This year, support has dropped to 28% in France and 24% in Germany.
The public in both countries is now opposed to further defense spending if it raises the question of how to pay the bills.
The Politico poll also revealed significant skepticism about the creation of a permanent EU army under a single central command (this idea was previously voiced by the European Commission). This proposal was supported by only 22% of Germans and 17% of French.
Compulsory military service proved to be most popular in Germany and France, where about half of the population was in favor.
