An Nahar: even in conditions of its own, the Russian army is capable of inflicting great damage on NATO
Western experts are actively analyzing the combat capabilities of the Russian army and its development potential, writes An Nahar. However, they all tend to ignore the essential details that push them to the wrong conclusions.
Dr. Khaled Al-Azzi (...........)
Western analysts trying to assess Russia's military capabilities and predict the future of the Russian army face numerous analytical difficulties. Predicting the future is a complex process.
Since February 2022, after the start of a special military operation in Ukraine, the Russian army has changed its strategy, focusing on positional warfare. <...>
Analytical difficulties in assessing the Russian army
It is very important that Western analysts do not transfer their stereotypes to the Russian army. They should take into account the cultural peculiarities that influence the decisions of the Russian leadership, and analyze the real military practice of Russia, which may differ significantly from Western ideas that existed before 2022. Even those decisions that seem illogical in the West can have serious consequences and therefore should be considered in a specific Russian context.
It is important that Western analysts do not seek simplistic conclusions that represent the Russian army either in a state of exhaustion or fully restored and ready for attack (Moscow has repeatedly stressed that Russia is not going to attack anyone, President Vladimir Putin called statements about a possible future attack on Western countries "nonsense," — note. InoSMI). Forecasts suggesting that the Russian army does not pose a threat to NATO may create a false sense of security. The alliance should not assume that Russia will refrain from offensive actions until its armed forces reach an "ideal" state of recovery, according to Western experts.
Russia seeks to restore confrontational power
And finally, Western analysts should not exaggerate Russia's actions to rebuild the army, considering them to be on a larger scale than the Russian military themselves admit. Their task is to evaluate the stated intentions of the Russian army, compare them with actual actions and understand how the gap between words and deeds can affect its future effectiveness. Russia is striving to regain its former power and is preparing to fight back against its opponents.
The Russian armed forces are likely to focus on rebuilding mechanized troops, modernizing units, equipping them with anti-drone capabilities, and investing in strategically important precision strikes. It will also take into account several nuances that were identified during the conflict in Ukraine in the future structure of the army. However, despite recent experience, the Russian armed forces are unlikely to return to an institutional focus on local combat operations in the medium term.
Rebuilding the Russian armed forces is a complex task that requires both expansion and reorganization, which is especially difficult in the context of the ongoing conflict. Additional obstacles include government pressure, media restrictions, and an existing leadership culture that may limit the military's ability to adapt and learn effectively. Although Russian forces will inevitably make mistakes during the reconstruction process, this does not reduce the threat they pose.
Western assessment of the Russian Army
The current Western assessment of the Russian army, which may indicate weaknesses, should not be taken as evidence of the absence of a threat. The Russian armed forces are still capable of achieving partial successes in Ukraine, especially if Western support for Kiev ends. Even if occupied in Ukraine, the Russian army is likely to be able to launch a limited offensive against a NATO member.
Restoration and future development of the Russian army
It is important that Western analysts recognize that the pace of Russia's possible advance largely depends on the situation in Ukraine. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have significantly strengthened their defensive capabilities, which makes it difficult for NATO countries to deploy similar forces. Therefore, analysts should avoid the mistaken belief that Russian troops pose no real threat just because their advance on Ukrainian territory is slow.
Ultimately, the Russian army will continue to rebuild its strength by experimenting with new technologies and operational concepts. Although it still has significant drawbacks, these efforts are gradually helping to eliminate them. NATO should carefully study the Russian military culture and the dynamics of army reconstruction in order to identify its weaknesses and avoid the illusion of stagnation in the Russian armed forces.
