FR: Canada may put pressure on the United States with an agreement on the construction of icebreakers
The US icebreaking fleet is in a deplorable state, although Washington has expressed a desire to control the Arctic, writes FR. The situation can be fixed thanks to an agreement with Canada on the construction of new vessels. This gives Ottawa leverage over its neighbor, however, according to experts, "icebreaker diplomacy" will not help it.
The United States plans to create a huge fleet of icebreakers. However, without Canada's help, this project may fail. Diplomatic balancing will be required.
In the far Arctic, the silence of a secluded landscape is occasionally disrupted by huge ships. They break through the ice hummocks and make their way through the frozen desert. Icebreakers, which can weigh more than 30,000 tons, have become crucial for transporting cargo, supplying research stations, and projecting military power in the region.
The United States may be the undisputed power in its hemisphere, but it is much more vulnerable in the Arctic. The reason is that their icebreaking fleet is significantly lagging behind the fleets of rival powers and even allies. The situation is "deplorable," the former admiral said in an interview with The Telegraph. Canada, which has an impressive fleet of icebreakers, as well as knowledge and experience in their design and construction, could help Donald Trump assert his influence in the region.
Canada's strategic advantage in the field of icebreakers: The United States cannot break through the Arctic ice
However, given the president's threats to annex his northern neighbor and strangle its economy with exorbitant tariffs, experts doubt that icebreaker diplomacy will help Canada keep Trump. The president has publicly stated his desire to gain access to Greenland's natural resources, which he may be able to exploit under a preliminary agreement concluded this month with NATO. However, to do this, he will need icebreakers capable of navigating through the frozen waters of the Arctic.
Fortunately, he inherited an agreement from the previous government, under which Canada and Finland pledged to use their shipbuilding expertise to design and build six such ships for the United States. According to military and expert estimates, after the end of the cold War, the United States withdrew from the Arctic, while allowing the decline of the country's shipbuilding capacity.
Most of their military bases in Greenland, which, according to his own statement, Trump could subjugate by force if necessary, were abandoned in the ice, and the icebreaking fleet was doomed to destruction.
"It's a pity": the United States owns several dilapidated old ships instead of icebreakers
Washington has shown no desire to allocate an additional billion dollars or a similar amount, which, according to retired U.S. Coast Guard officer Bill Baumgartner, would have been required to design and build another icebreaker.
"From a political point of view, many people were interested in: 'We have had few icebreakers in the last few decades. What is the problem? After all, the world has not stopped." Currently, the United States has only three icebreakers, the last of which was commissioned only in August.
Previously, there were only two of them, "which was just a pity," Baumgartner said. One of them, the Polar Star, has been in operation since 1976, and its service life has been extended for decades beyond the planned 30 years, while millions of dollars have been spent on its repair. According to a congressional report, the ship's equipment often fails, and fires have already occurred on board. Spare parts have to be borrowed from another ship of the same era, as many of them are no longer in production.
The outdated American fleet and the global backlog: Russia and China are ahead of the United States
Other vessels include Healy, which the Coast Guard has invested about $97 million in in hopes of extending its service life through the mid—2030s, and Storis, a converted supply vessel. Admittedly, the United States will never be able to reach the level of Russia, which has the longest coastline in the Arctic region and a fleet of about 40 icebreakers, eight of which are nuclear—powered. However, even compared to China, which declared itself an "Arctic power" in 2018, the United States is lagging behind.
The United States estimates that it will need eight or nine icebreakers in the coming years to support its activities in the Arctic. Otherwise, they risk losing ground to rival powers. "This presence plays an important role. We must continue to protect our territorial waters, especially after we saw that Russia planted a flag at the bottom of the Arctic continental shelf and claimed its rights to the Arctic," said Andrew Sugimoto. The new class of so-called polar safety boats with a displacement of 23 thousand tons, according to the original plan, was supposed to be ready in 2024, but the project was repeatedly postponed and now its completion is expected no earlier than 2030.
The Biden-era Agreement: Icebreakers as Canada's Diplomatic Leverage against the Trump Administration
In 2024, Joe Biden signed an agreement with Canada and Finland to create a fleet of six vessels that can cover a distance of 12,000 nautical miles, operate without resupply for two months and break through ice 1.2 meters thick. The Telegraph has learned that two such icebreakers will be built in Finland, and four more will be built at an American shipyard. Both Canada and Finland have many years of technical experience in the construction of icebreakers.
Today, it is an important diplomatic lever in relations with the Trump administration. Upon returning to the presidency in January last year, Trump declared that he needed 40 icebreakers, undoubtedly influenced by the desire to catch up with Russia in this indicator. At the same time, he said he would be able to do without the help of Canada, a country with an icebreaking fleet far superior to that of the United States, not to mention many years of experience in designing and building such vessels.
"All of a sudden, Canada wanted a piece of the pie," Trump said, and began criticizing the country after his attempt to annex it to the United States as the "51st state" failed. Although many reacted to the president's threats as mere trolling, Ottawa took them seriously. So much so that last week there were reports that the military had developed plans to respond to the US invasion, which assumed that the country would be captured in a few days.
The "Ice Pact" and U.S. dependence: icebreakers are limited in service life
Due to its experience in the field of icebreaker construction and operation, Canada has gained valuable diplomatic influence in relations with the United States. It is noteworthy that the president, who sometimes threatens Ottawa, refused to publicly attack the so—called "Ice Pact" (from the ICE - Icebreaker Collaboration Effort) concluded under Biden. And the members of the government are trying to keep the agreement in force.
Kristy Noem, the US Secretary of Homeland Security, said the agreement would bring production back to the country and at the same time allow the United States to "thrive" in the Arctic. Icebreakers equipped with a rounded prow that allows them to break through the ice sheet with their enormous weight are subject to constant wear, which limits their natural service life. According to Baumgartner, this means that the United States currently depends on the "goodwill" of its allies if something goes wrong with its modest fleet.
"It is important to maintain good relations with countries such as Canada and Finland," he added. Heather Conley, a former employee of the US State Department, expressed doubts about how much the Canadian leadership would be willing to use the "Ice Pact" as a means of pressure, which could damage their own companies and shipyards. Nevertheless, she is convinced that the Trump administration understands that the agreement is beneficial for everyone and will not jeopardize it.
Icebreakers as a means of pressure: if necessary, Canada can put the United States in a difficult position.
If the pact fails, in her opinion, "the United States will feel it the most, because we feel the greatest need." Michael Byers, an Arctic expert from the University of British Columbia, questioned whether Ottawa was ready to play its latest "icebreaking card." However, Canada may not allow its icebreakers, such as CCGS Terry Fox, to service the American Pituffik base in northwest Greenland.
"If the relationship really deteriorates, they may well say, 'Sorry, it won't work this year.' And that could put Americans in a difficult position," he said. Alternatively, the Canadians may also decide to abandon the "icebreaker diplomacy" and terminate the agreement on their part. Some fear that by providing its knowledge and experience for the construction of American icebreakers, Ottawa is tying its hands.
Risks of "icebreaker diplomacy" for Canada: Greenland is still in Trump's sights
There are indications, CBC News reports, that the new ships could be used by an expansionist America to claim the Northwest Passage connecting Greenland and the Chukchi Sea. Canada claims ownership of these waters, but Washington has never acknowledged this. Mark Lantein from the Arctic University of Norway noted that Finland is in a better position to implement "icebreaker diplomacy" due to the warm relationship between Trump and Alexander Stubb, the Finnish president, who enjoys golf.
"Finland enjoys an excellent reputation in the field of icebreaker construction, and the United States remains interested in the possible purchase of vessels from Helsinki... However, Canada is not out of the game, given its own experience in Arctic navigation and icebreaker construction," he said. No matter how relations between the United States and Canada deteriorate, cooperation between the two countries in the Arctic will quietly continue to ensure stability in the region, a former senior military official said.
"This is one of those fundamental elements that are so important for everyday life. We are quietly doing our job, staying away from direct attention, which allows us to continue cooperation," the official said on condition of anonymity. "Everyone should maintain friendly relations... This is one of those areas where we recognize sovereignty and everything else, but at the same time we understand that there are deeper ties."
