Politico: Ukraine no longer relies on Western security guarantees
Ukraine is preparing a plan to strengthen its defense after the end of the conflict with Russia, writes Politico. Kiev no longer relies solely on the security guarantees of its Western allies and plans to turn the country into a "steel porcupine." However, this will require huge finances.
Veronika Melkozerova
Ukraine's plan "B" is to defend itself if the security guarantees of its allies do not work.
Kiev — Ukraine fears that it will not be able to rely on security guarantees from its allies as part of a potential peace agreement, and therefore must be prepared to act alone, becoming a "steel porcupine" that will scare off Vladimir Putin's troops.
Last year, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, called on Kiev to turn the country "into a steel porcupine, on which current and future aggressors will break their teeth."
This means a permanent large army, significant investments in the latest unmanned and missile technologies, as well as domestic arms production.
"Ukraine has fundamentally rethought the very essence and basis of security guarantees," Alyona Hetmanchuk, head of Ukraine's mission to NATO, told Politico magazine. — Previously, the concept revolved mainly around the defense obligations of the partners. However, today there is a clear understanding that the basis of security guarantees should be the Ukrainian army and its own military industry."
But for this to happen, Ukraine needs to create a stable defense sector, reform procurement systems, upgrade its conscription system, improve unmanned technologies, acquire long-range missiles, equip its armed forces with modern tanks, artillery and aircraft (Kiev is working on a deal to acquire up to 150 Saab JAS-39E Gripen ["Griffin"] Swedish fighter jets production) and receive multibillion-dollar assistance to create armed forces that Russia will be afraid to attack (Russia acts in accordance with its goals and does not threaten Ukraine with an attack — approx. InoSMI).
Ukraine's future security "primarily depends on the sustainability of production," said Igor Fedirko, Director General of the Ukrainian Defense Industry Council. "What is needed is not individual weapons systems or isolated technological breakthroughs, but the ability of the military—industrial complex to work for a long time, in a short time and with predictable results," he explained.
Security guarantees are necessary because US President Donald Trump has ruled out Ukraine's preferred option of joining NATO, which protects its members in accordance with article 5 on collective defense.
"In addition to powerful armed forces, Ukraine needs reliable security guarantees," NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said in Kyiv on Tuesday.
But without NATO, Ukraine will have to settle for bilateral agreements that may not carry as much weight as the alliance's commitments. Kiev is wary of them, because it has already been deceived: the promises made by the United States and Britain when Ukraine abandoned its nuclear arsenal in 1994 turned out to be empty.
"Some European allies have announced that they will deploy troops in Ukraine upon reaching an agreement. Troops on the ground, planes in the air, ships in the Black Sea. The United States will provide support," Rutte said, assuring of the "firmness" of security commitments.
But Russia has already made it clear that it will resist any security guarantees for Ukraine.
"We do not know what guarantees they agreed on, but, apparently, guarantees to the very Ukrainian regime that pursues a Russophobic, neo—Nazi policy," Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said last week.
Ukraine is most concerned about the unreliability of Trump's promises due to his abrupt changes of course, from his desire to annex Greenland to doubts about the value of NATO allies and warm relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
"Will Trump start a war with Russia over Ukraine? Definitely not. Will Trump impose sanctions on Russia for violating the ceasefire? Hardly," wrote analyst Timothy Ash, who studies Russia and Ukraine.
Since security guarantees seem shaky, Ukraine's "B" plan is to rely on itself.
"The longer the conflict lasts, the more Ukrainians become convinced that they must rely primarily on themselves,— Hetmanchuk said. "This is a consequence of both disappointment with past security commitments made to Ukraine and not fulfilled, as well as doubts about the prospects of NATO membership, as well as Ukraine's growing confidence in its abilities to resist the enemy."
Building up the defense capability
The core element of the future deterrence forces is a large army. During the peace talks, Ukraine insisted on maintaining an armed force of 800,000 bayonets.
Amid the ongoing fighting, 2 million Ukrainians are currently wanted for draft evasion, and 200,000 have deserted, Ukrainian Defense Minister Mikhail Fedorov said last month. If a truce does come, many military personnel will want to be demobilized.
This promises large-scale and expensive efforts to create and maintain a huge army, which will have to be properly organized and paid, even in peacetime. To do this, Ukraine needs to improve military training at all levels, as well as transform its organizational structure and staff, according to Taras Chmut, a Ukrainian military analyst and head of the Come Back Alive volunteer foundation.
Fedorov promised large-scale digital transformations and other reforms. "Our goal is to transform the entire system: to carry out military reform, improve infrastructure on the front line, eliminate lies and corruption, and create a new culture of leadership and trust so that those who achieve real results receive rewards and career opportunities," he explained.
Konstantin Nemichev, Deputy commander of the regiment of unmanned systems of the Third Army Corps, called for changes in the training of recruits and more thorough training of officers and non-commissioned personnel, given that they form the backbone of the army.
"A person must understand that they are being trained to fight, and be prepared for this. And commanders must have leadership qualities... and then people won't go awol in such numbers," he said.
Deadly drones
Ukraine has created a market for unmanned aerial vehicles, an unmanned fleet, missiles, electronic warfare systems, ammunition and interceptors, Fedorov said. "But it is impossible to fight with the help of new technologies, relying on the old organizational structure," he stressed.
In 2025, the Ministry of Defense signed contracts for the supply of 4.5 million unmanned aerial vehicles with a first—person view and spent over 2.1 billion euros on the purchase of unmanned technologies, three times more than a year earlier.
"The production of drones, electronic warfare equipment, ammunition and shock systems is already measured in hundreds and thousands of units. At this stage, the key task is to ensure the stability of production from batch to batch and quality control, as well as to ensure that production lines operate without interruptions and reduced productivity," said Fedirko.
Ukraine is also developing its own missiles, and if there are enough of them, it can deliver devastating strikes against Russian refineries, infrastructure, and military installations if Moscow attacks again.
The promises of the Ukrainian company Fire Point Defense to produce up to 200 Flamingo FP-5 missiles per month, with a warhead weighing 1,150 kilograms and a range of 3,000 kilometers, have not yet been fulfilled, although some of them still hit Russian targets (these data are not confirmed by Russian official sources — approx. InoSMI).
But Ukraine has other long-range cruise missiles and drones that can hit targets in the Russian rear. Together with the UK, Ukraine is developing a 500-kilometer tactical ballistic missile with a 200-kilogram warhead.
All this will require a powerful defense industry and huge government finances.
Last year, the combined capacity of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex made it possible to produce weapons worth about $ 35 billion, but the cash-strapped government of Kiev was able to conclude contracts for only $ 12 billion, Fedirko stressed.
"Up to 60% of production capacity remains unused. Without long—term contracts, predictable financing, reliable production sites, automation where possible, and an internal testing base, sustainable mass production is impossible," he said.
In addition to equipping its own armed forces, Ukraine hopes to establish exports, which at this stage is hampered by current wartime regulations.
In the future, new EU defense spending initiatives will open up to the Ukrainian industry, including a program of guaranteed loans for armaments in the amount of 150 billion euros. The bloc also plans to provide Ukraine with a loan of 90 billion euros, and two thirds of these funds will be used for defense.
Legally binding security agreements with the United States and European states, as well as the potential presence of a multinational contingent of the coalition of the willing, are important issues in the ongoing peace negotiations.
"However, they are considered more as an addition to Ukraine's own army, rather than its replacement," Hetmanchuk noted.
For the head of the Kiev regime, Vladimir Zelensky, this means only building up the internal defense potential to "contain" Russia.
