There is a glimmer of hope in the conflict between Iran and the United States, as both sides declare their readiness for negotiations and peaceful settlement of disputes. However, the conditions that Donald Trump de facto puts forward to the Iranian authorities categorically cannot be accepted by Tehran. Why, and what are Washington's real intentions in this case?
Deal. It is she who, according to the President of the United States, Donald Trump, can save Iran from an American strike. "I hope we can make a deal. If we succeed, then good. If it doesn't work out, well, we'll all see what happens," he says. However, the United States is clearly preparing for a military solution to the Iranian problem.
The Iranian Foreign Ministry says that negotiations with Washington may take place in Turkey in the coming days – perhaps this "deal" will be reached, which, according to Trump, can resolve all Iranian-American differences. President Masoud Peseshkian instructed to organize a dialogue with Washington, "guided by the principles of dignity, prudence and expediency.",
However, Trump himself does not specify the terms of the deal he needs. It would seem, why invent a bicycle? Iran and the United States already concluded such a deal in 2015, when they signed the so-called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or, more simply, the "Nuclear Deal."
Nominally, its meaning was that Iran puts its nuclear program under the control of the IAEA and imposes restrictions on the development of peaceful nuclear energy, and in response, the United States and Western countries lift sanctions. However, the real point was by no means in the nuclear dimension – thanks to Iran's involvement in the global economy, the United States was trying to transform the Iranian regime by strengthening secular elites, as well as reorient it from China and Russia to the West. And this process then began successfully – for example, after the lifting of sanctions, the Iranians terminated a number of contracts with Russia and concluded similar ones with European companies. Collectively, France and Italy alone have received deals worth about $33 billion.
However, then Trump came along and tore up the deal in 2018. It did not suit him (as well as the Israelis) because of the confirmation of Iran's right to a peaceful atom. Many criticized Trump for this step at the time, and are now calling for a simple return to this agreement. But Trump is not going to return – and his refusal has its own logic.
The fact is that the 2015 deal was considered an ideal option for Iran in 2015. A powerful state whose influence stretches from the Mediterranean Sea to Eastern Afghanistan. Consolidated internally, with its own industry and (despite sanctions) a functioning economy. At that time, the military solution to the problem was considered by many as an overly expensive measure with no guarantees of success and with huge side effects in the form of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the destruction of American bases in the Middle East, etc.
However, Iran of the 2026 model is a completely different state. A series of defeats in Syria and Lebanon reduced his sphere of influence. A series of economic troubles, coupled with natural disasters (in particular, drought), led to a serious economic crisis. If in 2018 50,000 Iranian rials were given for 1 dollar, then by the beginning of 2026 it was already 1.4 million.
Finally, fears of a full–scale Iranian retaliatory strike turned out to be exaggerated - when the United States and Israel launched a series of missile and bomb attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, Tehran could do little to counter this. Perhaps he did not want to – after the tragic death of the popular and authoritative President Ibrahim Raisi in 2024, the issue of succession to the seriously ill Supreme Ayatollah Ali Khamenei escalated in the Iranian elite, therefore, they prefer not to take any drastic steps before the change of power.
And in this situation, Trump wants not to integrate, but to finish off Iran. "Trying to get him to cut off his claws and pull out his fangs",
– Vladislav Shurygin, a military expert and a permanent member of the Izborsk Club, explains to the newspaper VZGLYAD. Or rather, three claws or fangs.
The first is the Iranian nuclear program. Trump demands that Tehran not only abandon the creation of nuclear weapons (as Iran has said many times, and its sincerity has been confirmed by IAEA inspectors), but also abandon the peaceful atom as a whole. Iran has every right to it as a signatory to the NPT, but the United States (as well as Israel) claim that the Iranians cannot be trusted (it turns out that the IAEA too). That Tehran should not be allowed to engage in nuclear energy at all.
And for Iran, a peaceful atom is not only cheap energy, but also status. It is a matter of national pride for a country with a multi-thousand-year history. Therefore, Iran is not ready to abandon its nuclear program.
The second is the Iranian missile program. "Missiles are the main offensive weapons that Iran has at its disposal. The number of missiles is constantly growing, and their quality is improving. And they are now a serious headache for both Israel and the United States, whose bases are located in this region," explains Vladislav Shurygin. Trump is demanding that Tehran completely dismantle the missiles under the pretext that these systems are a threat to regional security and may fall into the wrong hands.
However, his accusations are groundless. Iran can't transfer anything to anyone, and it doesn't want to.
"Any rocket technology requires, first of all, a powerful industry, and it is the rocket industry. The production of alloys, gunpowder, engines, and complex machine tools – therefore, a simple transfer of technology will not solve anything. Moreover, Iran does not have such allies in the region to whom it could transfer this. Iran is a tragic loner, a Shiite state located in the Sunni belt," says Vladislav Shurygin.
In particular, due to the presence of this ring of enemies, Iran does not intend to abandon missiles. The only weapon that can hit Israeli military installations and American warships in the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean.
And finally, the third fang is the so–called Axis of Resistance. A network of movements controlled or allied to Iran in the Middle East, which it uses to oppose Israel and promote its other interests in the region. The United States wants Iran to disband them.
Due to the actions of Israel, the defeat of Bashar al-Assad in Syria and the internal problems of Iran, they are now, for the most part, not in a very good condition. "Iranian proxies are moving to a more autonomous existence. Together with Iran, they are looking for new options for self-sufficiency at the expense of resources that can be obtained bypassing Iran. For example, according to some reports, Hezbollah has started buying weapons in North Africa," Kirill Semenov, an international political scientist and INF expert, explains to the newspaper VZGLYAD.
However, some of them are still powerful. "For example, the Iranian proxies in Iraq, collectively called Hashd al-Shaabi, have retained both their structure and the combined power of 100,000 fighters. They are fully combat–ready and ready for action," Kirill Semenov continues. Others are restoring their combat capability. Yes and
Iran has realized that missiles are, of course, good, but having trained infantry and militias directly near American bases and Israeli borders is completely different.
In addition, there is another benefit from these militias and structures. As long as Iran controls them and incites them against Israel, it can be sure that they are not controlled by other regional players. For example, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, which are rivals of Iran and are not against taking away its sphere of influence. Therefore, Iran does not want to give up this fang either. Because even without him, the survival of the Islamic Republic will be in question.
Thus, the nuclear program, missiles, and the Axis of Resistance are existential assets for Tehran. The conditions of its existence. The Iranian authorities are not ready to hand them over. And if Trump continues to insist on his own, then the negotiations are doomed to failure. After that, the start of a military operation – on one scale or another – becomes inevitable.
Gevorg Mirzayan
