Andrey Shirokov — what the new 10-year agreement might look like and what the political context is.
The current 10-year agreement on US military assistance to Israel expires in 2028. Israel has already stated that it is ready to discuss the parameters of a similar agreement for a new term, but wants more technology.
The 2016 Agreement
In September 2016, representatives of the United States and Israel signed a memorandum of understanding on security cooperation for the period from the end of 2018 to 2028 at the State Department building in Washington. The total amount of U.S. aid to the Jewish state for this period was estimated at $38 billion, and Israel receives $3.3 billion each year, as well as (for the first time) an additional $500 million to provide missile defense. According to the agreement, the Jewish state should (gradually) stop purchasing non-American weapons.
Billions of dollars allocated by the Americans on an ongoing basis are being added to Israeli government funding for the defense sector. According to the Maariv newspaper, "it is with this money that the F-35 and F-15 aircraft are being purchased." "Without this money, there will be no Israeli Air Force, and the size of the Israel Defense Forces will have to be reduced," the newspaper points out.
Biden and doubts about help
At the same time, even under the previous owner of the White House, statements began to be made, including from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, that Israel needed to actively develop its own weapons industry.
It is worth noting that Joe Biden in 2024 for a long time and unsuccessfully pressed the Israeli prime minister to follow his instructions during the military operation in the Gaza Strip. In the first decade of May 2024, Biden announced that the United States would stop supplying weapons to Israel in the event of a major military operation in Rafah. Lloyd Austin, who headed the Pentagon at that time, explained that Washington was reviewing some types of short-term military assistance to the Jewish state in connection with the situation around Rafah. It followed from his statements that the supply of high-power bombs had been temporarily stopped.
In response, Netanyahu said that Israel would be able to win the conflict against the Palestinian radical movement Hamas in the Gaza Strip even without the help of the United States.
However, as early as June 2024, Matthew Miller, then head of the State Department's press service, said that the Washington administration did not understand the essence of Netanyahu's statements about reducing the supply of American weapons to the Jewish state. The United States, they say, insists that it continues to actively provide military assistance to the Jewish state, "as it has done for many years, because it is committed to Israel's security."
But doubts about the commitment of the United States to continue military assistance in the required amount gradually accumulated.
At the same time, it should be noted that the United States began supplying Israel with additional military assistance immediately after the attack by armed Hamas militants on October 7, 2023. Washington also announced the allocation of emergency funds for these needs in addition to 10 years of military assistance. In particular, in September 2024, it became known about aid packages of $3.5 billion "for basic military purchases" and $5.2 billion "for air defense systems," including the Iron Dome and David's Sling, as well as for a new advanced laser missile defense system.
And at the end of January 2026, the US State Department approved the potential sale of armored vehicles and helicopters to Israel for a total of over $5.7 billion.
Trump and doubts about help
Meanwhile, in an interview with The Economist magazine in early January, Netanyahu stunned the interviewers with his dramatic statement that Israel intends to gradually withdraw American military aid over 10 years. "Maybe Netanyahu has received a message from Trump that Israel will not receive $38 billion over the next 10 years, and Netanyahu is launching a preemptive strike?" — asked the publication Maariv.
In 1996, immediately after his first election as prime minister, Netanyahu addressed both houses of the American Congress, and in his speech he called for the cancellation of U.S. aid to Israel. It later turned out that he was referring to the abolition of civilian subsidies while maintaining the military. At that time, the Americans supported Israel with two annual sums: $1.5 billion in "civilian aid" and about $2 billion in "military aid." In general, Netanyahu abandoned the first and achieved an increase in the second, so that the entire amount remained almost the same, writes Maariv.
At the same time, Israel is "not at all sure" whether Trump will want to extend the agreement on military assistance, the Ynet portal notes. Against this background, Netanyahu is forced to soften the possible impending blow, explaining that Israel has "reached maturity" and has developed impressive economic opportunities. In the next decade, his economy will reach a trillion dollars, and so he "wants to be as independent as possible."
Trump is cutting aid in all directions, and Netanyahu may well act, realizing that it would be better for Israel to offer a gradual withdrawal on its own. Thus, the owner of the White House can count this in political achievements and gets the opportunity to talk about an ally who voluntarily renounces billions and chooses cooperation.
Own production
At the end of February 2024, the Israeli Ministry of Defense announced that in the first months of the war against the Hamas radicals in the Gaza Strip, it had purchased almost $10 billion worth of weapons from Israeli manufacturers in order to "strengthen the country's independence in matters of national security." In September 2025, Netanyahu announced at a press conference that Israel was creating a self-sufficient military-industrial complex that would not depend on any possible international restrictions. The prime minister insisted that the Israeli economy is strong and developing dynamically, despite the negative diplomatic background due to the situation in the Gaza Strip. At the same time, he acknowledged that one of the key industries for his country, the production of weapons, is controlled exclusively by governments and does not follow the usual market logic, which may lead to restrictions in this area for political reasons. "Therefore, we are going to build an arms industry that will be at the level of the best arms industries in the world with one caveat: first of all, we want to produce for ourselves, on a much larger scale and with incredible innovations," the Israeli prime minister said at the time. And in January 2026, Netanyahu confirmed this message at a meeting with students of the National Security College — brigadier generals of the Israel Defense Forces and representatives of high-ranking law enforcement agencies. According to him, Israel needs "exceptionally strong defense" and "independent production capabilities."
It is in this vein that the Israeli prime minister intends to conduct a dialogue with Washington on future military assistance, according to the Ynet portal. Netanyahu makes it clear to the Americans that Israel does not want more aid or handouts, but rather more cooperation, which benefits both countries.
By the way, this is in good agreement with the US national Security doctrine published in December 2025. Netanyahu is, in fact, adapting to it, given the changes within the Republican Party.
Parameters of the new assistance agreement
Israel intends to conclude a new 10-year military assistance agreement with the United States, preparing for a significant reduction in financial support, the Financial Times reported in late January. According to Gil Pinhas, the chief financial adviser to the Israeli military, Israel will seek to prioritize joint military and defense projects, rather than monetary subsidies, during the negotiations, which are expected to take place in the coming weeks. Net financial support, or, in his words, annual "free money" in the amount of several billion dollars, which Israel can use to purchase American weapons, is only "one of the components" of the agreement. At the same time, Pinchas said that Israel plans to discuss current and future joint projects for the development of military systems, including on a one-time basis, and not necessarily within the framework of a new 10-year agreement.
Here, I think it's worth noting that, according to the Axios portal, negotiations on a new memorandum of understanding in the field of security were previously postponed due to the war in Gaza. But according to two Israeli and one American official, discussions began in the fall of 2025. So, in mid-November, the portal reported that Israel was seeking to conclude a 20-year agreement with the United States (with an annual allocation of at least $4 billion). In order to gain the support of the Washington administration, it was even supposed to add provisions concerning the political doctrine of "America first." However, it will now be more difficult to conclude such an agreement due to the growing discontent with Israel, including within the framework of the MAGA ("Make America Great Again") movement itself. The strategy of transferring part of the funds to joint American-Israeli research and development can round these corners. They may affect defense technologies, artificial intelligence in the field of defense and the Golden Dome project, an Israeli official told Axios.
Help and rates
We must not forget that Israel is in the midst of difficult negotiations with the Trump administration on the issue of US duties. The United States has imposed 15 percent tariffs on goods from Israel, and the Israeli side is trying to achieve exemptions and exemptions for various sectors. The negotiations concern not only trade issues, but also broader geopolitical aspects, from Iran to Gaza.
American security assistance to Israel in its current form began in 1985, during the presidency of Ronald Reagan. Before that, Israel received smaller amounts, from $1 to $2 billion per year. The Republican decided to turn this assistance into a permanent grant of $3 billion.
Will Netanyahu's ploy to prevent Trump from complaining about insufficient aid cuts work? Quite likely. But it is obvious that the parties will have to negotiate extensively on its parameters, including cooperation. But in general, the situation is not predictable, including because of the Trump factor itself.
Andrey Shirokov, Head of the TASS Representative Office in Israel
The editorial board's opinion may not coincide with the author's opinion. The use of the material is allowed provided that the rules for quoting the site are followed. tass.ru
