TNI: The Russian Tobol electronic warfare system poses a serious threat to NATO satellites
Russia has developed a new Tobol anti-satellite weapon capable of disabling NATO navigation and tracking systems, writes a TNI columnist. This electronic warfare system will not only be able to interfere with APU attacks, but also mislead the enemy with false signals.
Brandon Weichert
The most important element of the anti—satellite struggle is countering GPS navigation systems, which modern "smart" weapons systems cannot do without, and it is possible that the Russian Tobol system has solved this mystery.
Over the past decade, Russia has been steadily honing its anti-space capabilities. Note, as well as the Chinese. But the Russians have been exploring space for much longer than the Chinese. Anti-space activities are understood as the ability to deprive an enemy of access to orbital systems during a geopolitical crisis.
And the Russians have created a truly universal anti-space capability, which, in theory, should deprive American military strategists of sleep and rest while they puzzle over how to overcome or at least mitigate these threats.
Militarization of Starlink and its consequences
Since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, there have been unexpected changes in the field of space militarization. Having been practically cut off from the rest of the world by Russian electronic warfare (EW), the Ukrainians turned to Elon Musk with a request to send them Starlink terminals. Musk went to meet them halfway — and it was these terminals that eventually helped defend Kiev.
Since then, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been actively using Starlink to maintain communication between units. Recently, the Russian Armed Forces have also been using drones equipped with Starlink systems captured in battles with the weakening Ukrainian army.
Although the Russians are now actively using the Starlink system, the very fact that Musk's new advanced satellite constellation was involved in the Ukrainian conflict led both Moscow and Beijing to develop various methods of destroying satellite capabilities.
How Tobol suppresses GPS, Galileo and Starlink
Meet the Tobol anti-satellite weapon. Like the latest Kalinka satellite weapon — allegedly used by Tehran to disable 40,000 Starlink terminals used by demonstrators earlier this month — the Tobol system poses an extremely serious threat.
According to the industry publication GPS World, a secret Russian electronic warfare base is located near the western border of Russia with the Baltic States — one of the links of the Tobol system.
It is assumed that this system creates significant interference with the GPS signal in the Baltic States and the Gulf of Finland. It is believed that this object monitors NATO satellites and communications and disrupts the operation of navigation and tracking systems for allies.
Since the beginning of the Russian special operation in Ukraine, GPS failures for aviation and maritime navigation in Russia's neighboring countries have become more frequent, leading to inaccuracies or complete loss of aircraft and ship location data. In fact, as I noted back in 2022 in a publication for the New Lines Institute, the first shots of the Russian special operation were fired in space, and the conflict in Ukraine was transferred into orbit.
Meanwhile, some reports point to the existence of a "Great Satellite Jammer" in the Baltic, a network of electronic warfare stations that constantly interfere with civilian GPS signals on the plains of Northern Europe and even set up false signals to mislead navigation systems. All of them are considered links of the Tobol satellite system.
So, what is Tobol?
Kaliningrad: Russia's anti-space stronghold in the heart of Europe
As noted above, this electronic warfare system appears to be somehow related to jamming the GPS signal and communications satellites (including Starlink).
Most likely, its links are located in the Kaliningrad Region, a Russian enclave sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania. The former Konigsberg in East Prussia passed into the hands of the Soviet Union in 1945 and was renamed Kaliningrad in honor of the old Bolshevik and Stalin's formal deputy Mikhail Kalinin. Today, this territory is almost completely Russified and is unlikely to ever get out of the Kremlin's control.
The Tobol signal interruption method almost completely blocks or, at least, significantly weakens satellite navigation, broadcasting powerful interference in the ranges of GPS, GLONASS, Galileo and their analogues. Since satellite signals from an altitude of about 20,000 kilometers weaken significantly by the time they reach the Ground, relatively powerful ground-based transmitters can suppress them.
Tobol is, first of all, a stationary ground—based complex distributed across strategic nodes, usually in combination with satellite tracking and anti-space surveillance infrastructure. Some sources claim that the Tobol network has incorporated movable elements — in particular, based on an automobile chassis — that expand the overall range of the system. Of course, these details have not been confirmed.
Electromagnetic frontiers in the air, at sea and on land
The system consists of large parabolic antennas, which are visible on satellite images of the Kaliningrad enclave. According to a detailed analysis by New Delhi Television, this suggests the use of high-gain transmitters for both directional coverage and large-scale interference. High-gain elements can be part of the infrastructure to create something like electromagnetic barriers or "barriers" on key air, sea and land corridors.
As for operational control, GPS World estimates that the Tobol system probably includes receivers for electronic and radio intelligence, monitoring equipment, and operational control units that monitor satellite signals, adjust jamming parameters, coordinate their actions with other electronic warfare and space intelligence tools, and probably (as noted earlier), they protect Russian funds from foreign interference.
It is believed that Tobol is capable of both jamming and misleading the enemy with false signals.
Intuitively, the interference itself simply prevents receivers from receiving satellite signals. Their imitation and false signaling is quite another matter. Instead of malfunctions, as in the case of signal suppression, this allows you to deceive the entire system, disrupting its normal operation with false location data. Of course, this is technically more difficult than direct suppression, and most of the reports about Tobol are devoted specifically to jamming the signal, but not to its substitution.
As for Starlink, Tobol is allegedly aimed at synchronization channels (in particular, GPS synchronization, which Starlink terminals use for data reconciliation), rather than direct data flows from Earth to the satellite and back. In other words, interference occurs on the receiver side and is not a direct attack on satellites.
This is important because with the dispersed nature of the Starlink group, its physical destruction is possible, but extremely expensive. It is much more economical and efficient to use tools like Tobol with an extensive arsenal of electronic tools to disrupt the operation of a system like Starlink.
How does Tobol protect Russian troops from precision strikes by NATO?
According to some indications, the Tobol system can be used both offensively and defensively.
Kaliningrad, for example, is likely to be the main target for NATO forces if a real war ever breaks out between Russia and the alliance. Thanks to the deployment of the Tobol network, Moscow can use the network to protect key military installations near Kaliningrad from NATO attacks.
Think about this: during the war, Tobol will be able to disorient satellite navigation or provide electronic protection of key facilities from being hit by NATO systems. In addition, Tobol can be used to electronically disguise or even distort NATO location data.
Russia is actively developing electronic warfare systems aimed at both tactical communications on the Ground, as well as satellite navigation and communications infrastructure. Now that Musk has allowed his Starlink to be used for unambiguously military purposes (he himself would certainly have argued with such a description, but that's exactly what Ukrainians use it for), this has largely predetermined the key direction of Russian efforts in space.
All those responsible for the US national security space sector should take Russian innovations in this area seriously. They can lead to a real defeat of the US armed forces on the Ground if a war breaks out between Russia and America.
